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Ramblings and Reflections

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  • #20738
    tbracingtbracing
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    • Total Posts 1406

    I haven’t had chance to look back over all the racing from the weekend yet but the 2 mile handicap at Sandown which featured Hold Fast as the winner, Tanks For That, Rileyev etc looked a fiercely competitive race and could be an interesting future race.

    It’s no surprise to see Hold Fast installed as short as 14/1 for the Grand Annual already as he was quite impressive with sure footed round of jumping and given his ability to stay beyond 2 miles I can’t imagine him not being competitive in the race. But more interesting a horse who could have some options available in the future was All For Free. He’s looked progressive since going into handicaps but found this step up against better rival a little too hot over 2 miles and looked badly outpaced before eventually grabbing 2nd place. He’d need to go up a bit yet to get in the Centenary Novice Handicap Chase at Cheltenham given then competitiveness of the race last year but certainly the Byrne Group Plate would be something else to consider if they are targeting him at the festival. More immediately though he should be kept a firm eye on for a step up to 2 1/2 miles.

    One for the AW fans to keep an eye on is Love You Louis, he made an encouraging comeback at Southwell recently and though he handicapped around his best he could be interesting when returning to Kempton if getting a favourable draw.

    #386179
    tbracingtbracing
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    • Total Posts 1406

    I quite like the look of the last at Southwell tomorrow and some prices have already started to filter through. Bookmakers are going up with their prices pretty early lately on ordinary race days like tomorrow, not that you’d get more than a bag of spuds on them mind.

    My price line for this to 99.95% is;

    Chookie Avon 9/2, Andiamo Via 11/2, Bianca De Medici 13/2, Podgies Boy 13/2, El Deccey 10/1, Elhamri 10/1, Goal 14/1, Horatio Carter 14/1, Cyflymder 18/1, Catalyze 33/1

    Podgies Boy

    is an interesting runner with Fahey having turned out a few winners on the winter circuit lately, I’d want 17/2+ to consider a bet and would be hard pushed to bet much beyond the first four in my price line, though unless the market does some shape shifting I won’t have a bet.

    #386288
    tbracingtbracing
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    • Total Posts 1406

    After a slow start Venetia Williams has noticeably surged back to form lately with three winners over the weekend. She was 1/40 with her runners from a break in October and November usurping Ferdy Murphy for the crown of slowest starting National Hunt trainer. I’ve been quite vociferous of Ferdy Murphy in the past for these type of tactics and so have others but not much mentioned of Venetia Williams host of early non-triers. None the less this tactic seems to be reaping the rewards lately with the three on the weekend to add to her other recent winners.

    Lightning Strike

    looks one worth watching closely as he could still prove well handicapped on his old form even after a revision from the handicapper. Ciceron was a progressive horse going into Cheltenham last year and turned in an impressive performance on the weekend at Sandown and could win again.

    3 to keep an eye on from this stable over their next couple of runs are

    Summery Justice

    ,

    Mannlichen

    and

    Maraafeq

    My selection in the Daily Lays & Plays Saturday

    Cotillion

    caught the eye again. He was going as well as the first pair home down to the final 2 flights but couldn’t quicken away from 2 out well enough and just kept on and ran on well on the flat after the last for third place. He’ll almost certainly be stepped back up in trip I’m sure and it looks much needed.

    #386308
    tbracingtbracing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1406

    Argh can’t believe I didn’t put

    Podgies Boy

    up in my DLP section :shock:. Lots of 9/1 available this morning which was just charming, also had a bit on

    Andiamo Via

    in the end at 8/1.

    #386410
    tbracingtbracing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1406

    I left the office yesterday evening full of joy at the prospect of backing Volcanic Dust at 12/1 this morning but a quick check in the evening before bed time and she was near half that and at 5/1 today I have to say I wouldn’t recommend her for a bet. About £1500 had been traded on betfair by midnight and I can’t imagine the books took a lot before they slashed it, top smoking.

    I’d even wrote a few lines to fight her case as well :(((

    Volcanic Dust may not have turned in a performance last time out at Wolverhampton to inspire confidence but it is fair to say she hasn’t proved anywhere near as effective at 6f in her career to date as she has at 5f. She was desperately unlucky when beaten by Diamond Charlie here back on the 20th of December and I’ve no doubt she should have won that race that day and with a pace bursting out of everywhere it looks set up for her. I’ve always found following out and out 5f horses a good betting medium, they few are far between, Breathless Kiss done me well last winter/spring and she looks like my new Breathless Kiss!

    However,

    Lishane Bog

    may be interesting in the race before at 12/1. That wasn’t a bad effort last time out and probably wasn’t completely run to suit, he’s always had a decent cruising speed with no real turn of foot he’s best of a sustained gallop using his speed to travel and with Megalala to tow them a long with likely competition from Cheylesmore he looks a sound proposition at a double figure price back to a track and trip that suit.

    #386576
    tbracingtbracing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1406

    All my whinging was in vain yesterday about Volcanic Dust, the race didn’t go at all as I envisaged in the end as the anticipated burn up never materialised at all!

    Have to say I am big fan of Leonna Mayor, have been since seeing her ride last winter but certainly hearing her during TV interviews she is a very confident person and think she’ll progress into a very good rider, one to keep on side for sure.

    And to continue my misery after getting in not so long ago I had to watch my morning win bet on Cool Mission run into second place, looks like more bread and water tonight :lol:

    #387152
    tbracingtbracing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1406

    Reviewing this weekend racing from Lingfield it’s fair to say, in spite of plenty of the races being run at a steady gallop the track was almost certainly riding on the slow side. There were a few runners that caught the eye but focusing on the Bluesquare sprint series qualifiers I thought

    Showboating

    and

    Waabel

    were both worth keeping a close eye on in the future.

    First

    Showboating

    may be reasonably obvious but held up off a very steady pace he had a big task on his hand as the field kicked for home on turning in and finshed very strongly down the centre of the track for a fast finishing 3rd. He’s just coming into a bit of form it seems recently and given he does get a little further and prefers to race prominently he was very unfortunate given the way the race was run.

    Waabel

    has clearly been run down the handicap in my view with an eye to this series given his form in the qualifying series last year off a lot higher ratings and he looks very well handicapped. I was surprised to see him dropped in on Saturday rather than make the running which he is best at and given the front pair both came into this in very good form and raced 1-2 through he was a bit too far off them as they kicked on turning in, he kept on ok but never quickened well enough to challenge and just kept on one paced for 4th. I think they’ve almost certainly got to just let the hand break off and allow him to lead and if doing so soon he could get back in the winners enclosure.

    #387623
    tbracingtbracing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1406

    With one recommended future runner winning yesterday at 9/2 (Cotillion) three more go today, though two take each other one, personally I priced them 6/1 and 8/1 top priced 5/1 and 17/2 as I type, actually prefer the chances of Hatta Stream on this occasion!

    The other is All For Free in a competitive 2m6 event and will need to continue his progression from the bottom of the handicap, this trip looks well on his radar though and should give a good account of himself.

    Some good racing on today but can’t find many ways into the markets today so expect my own participation to be limited

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