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I’ve been printing off the (free because it’s got a big WH ad on it) racecards from the RP – usually the day before and I’ve noticed the RPR’s on the day of racing are sometimes different for some horses – occassional significantly different.
I have noticed it happens in all types of races and also isn’t restricted to horses who have had a recent run, so it’s not an update issue. I would however tentatively suggest the changes are linked to the horses position in the betting.
Does anyone know what’s going on – are they making them up as they go along?
Thanks
Not suggesting it is a definitive answer but are the RPR ratings on the final cards adjusted to take account of riders claims?
If so that could account for the late changes.
No, it doesn’t appear to Paul – but may be the answer in a few cases.
For example in the next race at Kempton (8.05) the differences are:
Magento +2
Newton Circus +7 (Forecast Fav)
Chocolate Cookie -2and all the jocks are the same as declared yesterday.
I believe final RPRs are adjusted to take account of race conditions. The RP explanation of the rating is that it is the best rating ‘adjusted for today’s conditions and the horse’s potential for improvement’. Ratings on the web site up to 7pm the evening before the race are just ‘best rating’.
Rob
But if Rob is right that the ratings upto 7pm are the best, then ratings can only go down when adjusted for the conditions.
Not if they include any projected improvement Gerald.
Anyhow, the way Newton Circus just won at 9.40 on Big Blue there might be a llittle system in this
Racing Post Ratings are adjusted/fiddled for each race at the overnight stage to take into a number of factors, including trip/ground conditions and trainer form.
This is standard practice, and Timeform do exactly the same.
The reason is straightforward: to ensure that the horses considered by the handicapper to have the best chances of running well have the highest adjusted ratings.
This has got me confused.
I’ve always assumed that the Postmark was the hightest rating achieved in the previous 12 months, and because I’ve always assumed/"known" this, I’ve never bothered to check whether this was the case.
I’ve always thought that it was the job of the Punter to adjust for today’s conditions and trainerform etc.
I have my handicap ratings on the Racing Post server, and I have noticed especially with the 2yo races when checking the results, that the final RPR ratings given to the 2yo’s, can change up to 3 times in the space of a week.
I have sent off an email to the Post this week asking why the RPR ratings keep on changing; no answer yet.
You are not going mad, as I have noticed that the Racing Post ratings keep on changing…I’ve always thought that it was the job of the Punter to adjust for today’s conditions and trainerform etc.
Indeed. But that’s not the way it works, Gerald.
Handicappers at the Racing Post and Timeform are judged on their results/strike-rate, and it’s generally not in their best interest to have out-of-form 50/1-shots as their top-rated horses. Given that the BHA handicapper often drops horses quickly if they perform poorly on several consecutive outings, these horses are soon going to be top-rated if the Racing Post/Timeform handicapper sticks strictly to the “best rating of the last 12 months” policy.
Obviously, very occasionally a horse will suddenly return to form and a long-priced winner will be missed.
Thanks, ish, Gumshield
Hi Bluesbrother
it is fairly understandable that ratings for 2yo races especially vary in the days after the race, with no formlines beforehand, and horses making reappearances.
I’m still gobsmacked to find out that Postmark ratings aren’t pure.
The funny thing is I haven’t taken too much notice of them in the past, because I "knew" they were just the best marks obtained in the past 12 months!
– are they making them up as they go along?
.. it would appear to be the case, I think one of the conditions that they adjust the ratings for is forecast starting price.
They make an overall loss anyway .. so I suppose it’s a good exercise in finding out how not to do ratings.
Propping up the Naps table means that they have lost less than all of the others, they would need to turn around the ROI by about 10% to be any good and by that I mean marginally profitable.
I don’t know happy .. I think the best thing to do is, work out what everyone else is doing and then do the exact opposite.
A friend of mine ran a tipping service for a while that was profitable .. he reckoned you didn’t need that much money going on a horse to push it’s price in. He had 800 subscribers and that was enough to wreck it. Now he’s doing it for himself again, he’s back into profit. Everything that’s in the public domain has the same problem.
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