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I thought I’d start a thread as the early entries have been made and the race has been priced up.
Weird Al is the horse I’m interested in. No obvious explanation has come forward for his no show in the Hennessey. There is a theory that he left his form at Carlisle where he ended up having a hard race and he’s also been hobdayed although I’m not entirely sure that he actually made a noise in the Hennessey.
If he shows the sort of form connections believe him capable of, though, he would look well treated in this. His entries in the Ryanair and Gold Cup show the regard in which he is held at home.
He’s a fragile sort though so not really antepost material.
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Nacarat isn’t an original selection by any means, but he was supremely impressive when winning this race two years ago, loves the course, has slipped to a mark of 156 (ran off 158 last year) and arrives on the back of a breathing operation that might just bring about a little bit of improvement.
There’s no reason to suspect he won’t go well.
I cant see connections running
Breedsbreeze
in anything at the festival as i dont think the course suits him.However 3 miles around Kempton,a course he won the Feltham over, jumps off the page to me,29"s on the machine is double the price the High st bookmakers are offering and all things considered,possible top weight and that he is still worth the risk!
NACARAT to win he is 7/1 with Paddy Power. I think price will collapse if Pricewise picks him next saturday.Got a feeling he will if he is still 6s next weekend.I backed him in this race 2years ago.
He loves the course and i think he win it again for a 2nd timeSummery Justice is young and improving. Was entered and backed for the Welsh National before pulling out due to injury. Williams is in better form now and is capable of winning big prizes. His profile is of one who could be racing off 145-150 by the end of the year.
On the negative side, the race is likely to be run at a fast pace which may be too much after an injury lay off. It will also test his jumping which wasn’t perfect last year. He was a novice though and was far better at Bangor.
Soft ground would suit the horse based on previous form.
Regarding the chances of Nacarat – the Tom George yard seem very out of form at the moment, underlined by the run of tartak yesterday.
No reason why Razor Royale can’t repeat last year’s victory. Won last year off 141 and now runs off 142
20/1 too big
No reason why Razor Royale can’t repeat last year’s victory. Won last year off 141 and now runs off 142
20/1 too big
This was my next post, can’t see him out the first three, massive price.
All depends on the ground with RR, won it on very soft ground last year and has generally shown best form when the mud is flying – so pay close attention to the weather forecast down in the South East this week. Favourite Fistral Beach also shown that soft plays to his strengths so would be in the reckoning, and has course form to match.
If its good ground, Nacarat has a strong chance, but also Mostly Bob and Polyfast would be on my shortlist as both shown form on a better surface.
I was thinking FISTRAL BEACH for this last year at 3/1 and nothings putting me off for this year at 6/1,NACARAT is the class horse for this but top weight is too much,giving 16 pounds to my selection.
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If it’s anything like good ground on Saturday, Nacarat is going to take a great deal of beating. Only the softening ground stopped him from winning again last season, and his King George run shows he’s lost none of his ability (all 3 who finished in front of him would be set to give him at least a stone in future handicaps).
No surprise to see Long Run vying for Gold Cup favoritism either, if Nacarat endorses the form anything like Riverside Theatre did on Saturday.I think Tom George is a little disappointed that Kempton were watering last week.
Nacarat should go close, he loves it at Kempton.
Paddy Brenan is riding Nacarat.
For a horse that was favourite for the Arkle a couple of years ago, won a hurdle race in France worth £120,000, a couple of years before that, won a fair handicap last time out by 11 lengths "impressive"-ly, and still set to carry 5 lbs less than his highest handicap mark, Tatenen looks a decent bet – and not a bad price.
If Nicholls or Henderson trained him, he’d be favourite, I should think.
Looks as if it’ll be good to soft on Sat, not much rain forecast tomorrow by the looks of it.
I think it’ll be a match between the two joint favourites; Nacarat is the class act and I doubt top weight would bother him, after all he’s 2lb lower than when a gutsy 2nd last year on softer ground. Fistral Beach is improving and has good course form, McCoy has an excellent record in this race.
If Polyfast stays he’s a threat near the bottom of the weights, 18/1 looks rather big.
RR would prefer softer ground, but will probably be in the shake-up given his exploits last year.
Nacarat for me however.
My two AP picks against the field are Nacarat, for pretty much the same reasons as everyone else, and Quinz, because Hobbs has an excellent record in the race, he’s an improving horse, and he’s apparently being aimed at this.
Twitter=@PGHenn
So don't run, just like the others always do
For a horse that was favourite for the Arkle a couple of years ago, won a hurdle race in France worth £120,000, a couple of years before that, won a fair handicap last time out by 11 lengths "impressive"-ly, and still set to carry 5 lbs less than his highest handicap mark, Tatenen looks a decent bet – and not a bad price.
If Nicholls or Henderson trained him, he’d be favourite, I should think.
But has gone up a lot as a result of winning that handicap!
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