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Theory – <b>When a racemare hits a string of form, in which she wins once and then twice in a row, she will simply keep winning IE. the form is unbreakable.</b>
Discuss with examples.
I haven’t thought deeply about this, but I can’t imagine it being too outrageous of a suggestion!
Et tu?
I’ve never heard of unbeatable mares before, MDeering
… or "unbreakable" form for that matter!Are you suggesting the in-form mare would beat anything in the same grade? or absolutely ANY race? colts, same sex?
Maybe you should have thought more deeply about it…it’s outrageous! IMO
Among races of the same sex – I should have clarified.
And not unbeatable mares – simply that a racemare will more often string consecutive winners together against a similar class of mares (and slightly more able class too, once the mare rises in rating), than a male horse, juvenile or sophomore (3YO).
With respect, MDeering, statistically you have that the wrong way round, I think. Female horses are more unlikely to win consecutive races than their male counterparts. Please correct me with figures if you know otherwise.
Cheers.I have a nice broodmare called Glacial Missile. When she raced with Peter Bowen,she ran a couple of times and was beat. I was told to sell her by the jock. Then Richard Johnson got on her she won four on the trot and eight in all. Good races too showing huge courage. The jock who told me to sell her said,"dropped a bollock there didn`t I " Incidentally her first progeny runs in a novice hurdle today at Taunton.
With respect, MDeering, statistically you have that the wrong way round, I think. Female horses are more unlikely to win consecutive races than their male counterparts. Please correct me with figures if you know otherwise.
The original suggestion surrounded mares who have already posted consecutive victories – I think.
It’s an interesting point and there are examples that do seem to support the idea, tempered, perhaps, by the judicious placing of horses in suitable races. I remember a filly trained by Barry Hills, Duboff, who was a multiple winner, although she was always defeated when upped to races at the highest level.
On a similar tack is the topic of mares in-foal, who suddenly seem to hit a rich vein of form.
In America this is a common situation – particularly because they have many graded races restricted to fillies and mares and the top ones avoid each other on the two coasts and mid-west, at least until Breeders’ Cup.
If you look at the Breeders’ Cup Distaff last year you had Ginger Punch who had won 5 of her 7 races and Music Note who had won 4 of her 5 races going to Santa Anita but they were eclipsed by the great mare Zenyatta who won all 7 of her races last year.
Loads of previous examples including that great mare Bayakoa.
I don’t think it’s a stat you can generalise about. Some mares do run up sequences – random ones that sprang to mind were Attraction, Devon Ditty, Peeping Fawn and Salsabil. But the same applies to colts, two-year-olds, sprinters, etc, whichever catagory you want, you will be able to find examples – Rock of Gibraltar, Timeless Times, Johannesburg, Sinndar…
It depends so much on the strength of the division, on the individual horse and the timing of the races. Russian Rhythm is an example – she twice won 3 races in a row, only to get beaten in the autumn.
Sorry everyone if you think I’m being stubborn here, and I accept that you can cite individual examples but the thread suggests it as a theory; whereas I am contradicting the point with a statistical fact – that twice as many male horses will record consecutive wins than female horses. Therefore, if I was faced with two races each having only one previous race winner in the line-up, one female and one male, if I was having just one bet solely on the basis that I was backing something that won last time out, I would almost certainly swerve the female horse.
Fortunately, I rarely have this dilemma, preferring to shy away from statistics on the basis that you could have your head in a hot oven and your feet in a block of ice but on average does that mean you feel quite comfortable with the temperature?Exceptional and very good horses (mares included) tend to run up a string of consecutive victories. It is not an uncommon phenomenon.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
I think you will find that Mares who are up the duff are the ones whos form improves greatly.
Theory – When a racemare hits a string of form, in which she wins once and then twice in a row, she will simply keep winning IE. the form is unbreakable
What happens when its rag week???
Answer – The unbeatable mare gets beaten.I run a Race Club, and we were fortunate enough to own a mare called Elopement. At the start of her 5 year old season she had run nine races and not troubled the judge, at the end of the season she had won 6 races and rose form a rating of 47 to 76. Personally I don’t think this was down to the fact that she was a mare. It was mainly down to the fact that she stood training for the first time in 5 years, and once finding her form, she thrived and was able to exploit a very favourable handicap mark from which she started.
At the end of the season Elopement won the Channel Four Trophy for the winning most horse of 2007, I was told she was the first filly/mare to win the trophy.
Ken, you’re concentrating on the racemares that win once, and are unlikely to back it up.
Myles is considering the mares that HAVE backed it up, and won twice in a row.
Branston Abby
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Red Rosein
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Just wanted to mention two of my favourites.
Okay, lets take a small sample and see what happens to them. The Sandringham Fillies Mile H’cap used to take place at Ascot Heath. I’ll try dragging up the winners that won their previous race.
… or "unbreakable" form for that matter!
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