Quick RP Ratings

[Artemis]

In an effort to make things less complicated, I’ve separated the RP form ratings from the various additional positive factors which I normally add on. I intend to use this approach for a month’s trial period over a variety of races just to see how it goes.

The method is fairly simple, or should be once you get the hang of it.

Log on to the RP website (Main Site).

Click on ‘Cards’ and choose a race meeting: click on the meeting and select the ‘View all races at this meeting on one page’ option.

Select a race and click on the blue circle above the race, RP ratings.

You can either jot down the ratings on paper or use the Notepad on your screen. I save time by abbreviating the names of the horses(e.g Persian Punch =PP, Authorized =Au).

Write down the adjusted RPR for those horses which are within 7lbs of the top rated horse and within 10lbs if the horse has had three or fewer races. You can quickly tell horses with only 1,2 or 3 runs because they are shown on this page under the ‘Last 6 runs’.

Horses with only 1 run Add 6pts

" with only 2 runs Add 4pts

" with only 3 runs Add 2pts

Additional RPR points for horses that have ran to within 10lbs of their adjusted rating

Last Time Out(last 60 days) Add 3pts(within 5lbs) or 2pts(between 6lbs and 10lbs)

If last time out run was below this level, any run in the last 60 days within 10lbs of adjusted rating……Add 1pt

That’s it for RPR.

Bonus Pts for Topspeed ratings. To find these ratings click on the Topspeed symbol above the race.

Any Topspeed rating(same surface, Turf or AW) in last 60 days within 5lbs of adjusted RPR rating……Add 3pts or 2pts(between 6 and 10lbs).

If no qualifying rating within last 60 days, any adjusted Topspeed rating within 10lbs of adjusted RPR rating …..Add 1pt

So, the Total Pts = adjusted RPR + extra RPR pts for recent form + bonus points for Topspeed ratings + extra points for horses which have had 3 runs or less.

= adjusted RPR + max 3 + max 3 + max 6
=adjusted RPR + max 12, or max 6 for horses with 4 races or more.

The simple logic here is that you should end up with top rated horses which are rated best on form, with extra points for commensurate recent form and that form franked by comparable speed ratings.

I’ll give it a try over a range of races starting tomorrow.

[Spreadform]

Interesting approach, Artemis. Will be watching – good luck!

Peter

[Artemis]

Monday 13 August.

Thirsk provides a selection of fairly moderate races. The ratings are as follows(top three):

[b:l64ttyr8]5.55 Foreign Rhythm 99 3rd 5/2[/color:l64ttyr8]
Sophies Girl 95 won 11/10f[/color:l64ttyr8]

6.25 Graceful Descent 102 2nd 7/4f[/color:l64ttyr8]
Intersky Melody 88

6.55 Blue Empire 79 won 3/1f[/color:l64ttyr8]
Crush On You 76
Fairy Monarch 75
Linden’s Lady 75 NR[/color:l64ttyr8]

7.25 Tencendur 90 2nd 2/1f[/color:l64ttyr8]
Joan Of Arc 88
Spume 87 won 8/1
[/color:l64ttyr8] Kalasam 87
Run Free 87
Coconut Queen 87
Dressed To Dance 87

7.55 Sharaab 73 2nd 10/11f[/color:l64ttyr8]
Leonardo’s Friend 71
Sweet Lavinia 71

8.25 Foxy Music 100
Hawaii Prince 100
Deserted Dane 99
Ishetoo 99 won 10/3[/color:l64ttyr8][/b:l64ttyr8]

[b:l64ttyr8]Stakes 7.00 pts
Returns 4.00
Loss 3.00 pts[/color:l64ttyr8][/b:l64ttyr8]
To get some idea of profitability, there will be a 1pt stake on each top-rated at SP. If there are joint top rated, there will be a 1pt stake on each horse and not split stakes.

[grand lodge]

Nice bit of advertising, Peter.

[dave jay]

That’s not bad at all Artemis .. are you interested in the top rated or are you seeking a price ?

[Artemis]

Dave,

We should be looking for a price, always.

However, as this is just experimental, I’m interested to see if this ‘ratings only’ approach can provide a respectable return at SP. It’s a very big ask given the unfairness of the SP market.

The ratings plus positive factors approach should be doing better than it is, so I thought that I would isolate the ratings and also look at races in all grades.

I can compare these tweaked RPR ratings against the RPR top-rated selections in the RP to see whether or not the tweaking makes any difference.

[Artemis]

Tuesday 14 August

Some very moderate racing at Brighton.

[b:116ia77d]2.00 Prince Valentine 81 3rd 7/2f[/color:116ia77d]
Corrib 77NR[/color:116ia77d]
Danawi 77

2.30 Commandment 94 won 2/9[/color:116ia77d]
Saaratt 89

3.00 Alfie Tupper 86

3.30 Kyloe Belle 74
Little Miss Tara 70
Lunar River 69

4.00 Prince Des Neiges 78 2nd 11/10f[/color:116ia77d]
Marbaa 71
Shaika 71

4.30 Out For A Stroll 75
Perfect Treasure 74 NR[/color:116ia77d]
Majestical 72[/b:116ia77d]

Stakes 6.00pts
Returns 1.22
Loss 4.88 pts

Running Total
Stakes 13pts Loss 7.78 pts[/color:116ia77d]

[Artemis]

Wednesday 15 August

A fair card at Sandown.

[b:pkw5xky0]5.30 Royal Confidence 105 won 4/9[/color:pkw5xky0]
Cordell 91

6.00 Matsunosuke 101won 10/3[/color:pkw5xky0]
One Way Ticket 99 NR[/color:pkw5xky0]
Pic Up Sticks 99 NR[/color:pkw5xky0]

6.35 Redelent 94 won 6/5[/color:pkw5xky0]
Loyal Knight 93
Resplendent Light 83

7.05 Shevchenko 102 won 5/6[/color:pkw5xky0]
Perfect Star 102 2nd 10/3[/color:pkw5xky0]
World’s Heroine 102 NR[/color:pkw5xky0]
Millestan 102 3rd 8/1[/color:pkw5xky0]

7.40 Dar Es Salaam 98
Muhannak 96
Oakley Heffert 95

8.10 Duty Free 94 2nd 9/4f[/color:pkw5xky0]
Sweetheart 94 NR[/color:pkw5xky0]
Alleviate 94 won 11/4[/color:pkw5xky0]
Galianna 94

Stakes 10.00pts
Returns 13.55
Profit 3.55 pts

Running Total Stakes 23pts loss 4.23pts[/b:pkw5xky0][/color:pkw5xky0]

[Artemis]

Thursday 16 August

Sandown

[b:2lsidb19]2.20 Silca Elegance 86
Kondakova 84
Rocker 84
Billy Red 84

2.50 Jedediah 108 won 5/6[/color:2lsidb19]

3.25 Woodcote Place 105
Music Note 104
Sailor King 104

4.00 Fidelia 107
Safwa 103

4.35 Magic Mountain 93

5.10 Counsel’s Opinion 95
Cinematic 94
Lisathedaddy 94

Stakes 6.00pts
Returns 1.83
Loss 4.17

Running Total Stakes 29pts Loss 8.40pts [/b:2lsidb19][/color:2lsidb19]

[Artemis]

Friday 17 August

Newbury

[b:1ehdtfwu]1.40 Eastern Gift 108 2nd 9/4f[/color:1ehdtfwu]

2.10 Magicalmysterytour 100 won 8/1[/color:1ehdtfwu]
Shore Thing 100
Silver Suitor 100 2nd 11/4f[/color:1ehdtfwu]

2.40 Reel Gift 129 NR[/color:1ehdtfwu]

3.15 King’s Bastion 97
Fabuleux Millie 97
Jimmy Styles 97 won 9/1[/color:1ehdtfwu]
Nouveau 98 should have been top rated here – my mistake.[/color:1ehdtfwu]

3.50 Rolexa 94
High And Dry 93
Red Blossom 90
Andmoreagain 90 won 9/2[/color:1ehdtfwu]

4.20 Cortesia 81
Apache Fort 81
Atlantic Coast 80 won 10/3f[/color:1ehdtfwu]

4.55 Border Edge 87
Mythical Charm 87
October Ben 86[

Stakes 10.00pts
Returns 9.00
Loss 1.00 pt

Running Total Stakes 39pts Loss 9.40pts[/b:1ehdtfwu][/color:1ehdtfwu]

I haven’t got the time to post up every meeting I rate, which is a pity because there have been some very good returns from other meetings. I don’t believe in after- timing, but Salisbury on Wednesday, Beverley yesterday and Newcastle today were all very profitable backing the top rated(or joint top rated horses). I’ll try to post the top rated horses from a few more meetings as time permits.

[Artemis]

Saturday 18 August

I’ve looked at the three main meetings today and only given the top rated.
Where there were joint top rated, I’ve given preference to the one with the best adjusted RPR, then the best latest RPR, and if they still cannot be separated, the best recent Topspeed rating.

[b:3mzphg36]Newbury
1.40 Seeking The Buck 85 2nd 9/4f[/color:3mzphg36]

2.10 Ramona Chase 121

2..45 Shahin 131 2nd 3/1[/color:3mzphg36]

3.20 Silver Touch 134

3.55 Burning Incense 115

4.25 Rinterval 106 won 7/4f[/color:3mzphg36]

5.00 Pippa Green 103 won 9/2[/color:3mzphg36]

Newmarket

1.55 Atheer Dubai

2.25 Little Big Boy 98 won 5/1[/color:3mzphg36]

3.00 Pic Up Sticks 101

3.35 Royal Rock 121

4.10 Lazy Darren 103

4.45 Active Asset 94

5.20 Venir Rouge 812nd 11/4f[/color:3mzphg36]

Ripon

2.05 Harrison George 98

2.35 Zabougg 93

3.10 Tia Mia 111

3.45 Grantley Adams 119

4.20 Soul Mountain 87

4.50 Sweetsformysweet 85

5.25 Smuggler’s Bay 104

Stakes 21.00pts
Returns 14.25
Loss 6.75pts

Running Total Stakes 60pts Loss16.15pts [/b:3mzphg36][/color:3mzphg36]

[Artemis]

Sunday 19 August

[b:zwf7sgw7]Pontefract
2.10 Mister Fips 102 won 1/1f[/color:zwf7sgw7]

2.40 Dzesmin 105

3.10 Mr Mischief 81 3rd 6/1[/color:zwf7sgw7]

3.40 Bee Eater 125 3rd 6/4f[/color:zwf7sgw7]

4.10 The Grey Berry 109 3rd 13/2[/color:zwf7sgw7]

4.40 Double Doors 89 3rd 15/8f[/color:zwf7sgw7]

5.10 Never Without Me 93 won 9/2[/color:zwf7sgw7]

Bath

2.30 Hobson 100 won6/4f[/color:zwf7sgw7]

3.00 Altenburg 87

3.30 Don Pietro 93 2nd 7/1[/color:zwf7sgw7]

4.00 Magical Music83 3rd 9/2[/color:zwf7sgw7]

4.30 Basaata 122

5.00 Caustic Wit 91 3rd 7/2[/color:zwf7sgw7]

5.30 Endless Summer 84 2nd 11/4f[/color:zwf7sgw7]

Stakes 14.00pts
Returns 10.00
Loss 4.00pts

Running Total Stakes 74pts Loss 20.15pts[/color:zwf7sgw7][/b:zwf7sgw7]

[Artemis]

Monday 20 August

Leicester
2.30 Doctor Faustus 95
3.00 Angaric 100 NR[/color:3qrp4k30]
3.30 Swift Princess 86 won 8/11[/color:3qrp4k30], High Five Society 86
4.00 Beech Games 79
4.30 Gallego 80
5.00 Stir Crazy 81

Wolverhampton
2.15 Blackheath 82
2.45 What Katie Did 97 won 5/4f[/color:3qrp4k30]
3.15 Squirtle 76
3.45 Spriggan 90 won4/6f[/color:3qrp4k30]
4.15 Coeur Courageux 98
4.45 Fulvio 61

Windsor
5.30 Swanky Lad 99
6.00 Bridgewater Boys 67 won 8/11f[/color:3qrp4k30]
6.30 Diane’s Choice 105
7.00 Duchesse Royale 90
7.30 King’s Event 95 won 4/5f[/color:3qrp4k30]
8.00 Limbo King 82

Yarmouth MEETING ABANDONED

Stakes 18.00pts
Returns 9.11
Loss 8.89pts

Running Total Stakes 92pts Loss 29.04pts[/color:3qrp4k30][/b:3qrp4k30]
A lot of moderate racing. As this is ‘experimental’, the more races the better to give a good sample size.

[Artemis]

Tuesday 21 August

[b:102z83rv]York
1.30 Galactic Star 113 won 6/1[/color:102z83rv]

2.00 Septimus 134 won 6/5[/color:102z83rv]

2.35 Yellowstone 138

3.10 Dylan Thomas 145

3.50 Tajdeef 114 NR[/color:102z83rv]

4.25 Flawed Genius 106

5.00 Cape Royal 121

Stakes 6.00pts
Returns 9.20
Profit 3.20pts

Running Total Stakes 98pts Loss 25.84pts [/color:102z83rv][/b:102z83rv]

[Artemis]

Wednesday 22 August

[b:22u3h5oa]York

1.30 River Tiber 114

2.00 Swiss Franc 129

2.35 Purple Moon 128 won 7/2f[/color:22u3h5oa]

3.10 Peeping Fawn 137 won 4/9f[/color:22u3h5oa]

3.50 Captain Gerard 122 won 6/4f[/color:22u3h5oa]

4.25 Moynahan 103 won 5/1[/color:22u3h5oa]

5.00 Valery Borzov 118

Stakes 7.00pts
Returns 14.44
Profit 7.44pts

Running Total Stakes 106pts Loss 17.40pts[/b:22u3h5oa][/color:22u3h5oa]

[Artemis]

Thursday 23 August

[b:hkxbx7yz]York

1.35 Dark Angel 127 won 3/1[/color:hkxbx7yz]

2.05 Fleeting Spirit 134

2.35 The Illies 119 won 5/1[/color:hkxbx7yz]

3.10 Dandy Man 130

3.50 Welsh Emperor 137 NR[/color:hkxbx7yz]

4.25 Wannabe Posh 120 won 5/2[/color:hkxbx7yz]

5.00 Couer De Lionne 118

Stakes 6.00pts
Returns 13.50pts
Profit 7.50pts

Running Total Stakes 112pts Loss 9.90pts [/b:hkxbx7yz][/color:hkxbx7yz]

[Wallace]

9 winners from 21 races at York!!! Impressive.

Have you any thoughts on why the meeting has produced such good results for your system?

Good standard of racing?

Races run at a proper gallop?

A very fair flat track?

I have a list of fair tracks where I’m prepared to bet for larger stakes than at others. I consider York is in the top rank for fairness where Goodwood is not.

[Author]

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