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Quick RP Ratings

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  • #4840
    Artemis
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1736

    In an effort to make things less complicated, I’ve separated the RP form ratings from the various additional positive factors which I normally add on. I intend to use this approach for a month’s trial period over a variety of races just to see how it goes.

    The method is fairly simple, or should be once you get the hang of it.

    Log on to the RP website (Main Site).

    Click on ‘Cards’ and choose a race meeting: click on the meeting and select the ‘View all races at this meeting on one page’ option.

    Select a race and click on the blue circle above the race, RP ratings.

    You can either jot down the ratings on paper or use the Notepad on your screen. I save time by abbreviating the names of the horses(e.g Persian Punch =PP, Authorized =Au).

    Write down the adjusted RPR for those horses which are within 7lbs of the top rated horse and within 10lbs if the horse has had three or fewer races. You can quickly tell horses with only 1,2 or 3 runs because they are shown on this page under the ‘Last 6 runs’.

    Horses with only 1 run Add 6pts

    " with only 2 runs Add 4pts

    " with only 3 runs Add 2pts

    Additional RPR points for horses that have ran to within 10lbs of their adjusted rating

    Last Time Out(last 60 days) Add 3pts(within 5lbs) or 2pts(between 6lbs and 10lbs)

    If last time out run was below this level, any run in the last 60 days within 10lbs of adjusted rating……Add 1pt

    That’s it for RPR.

    Bonus Pts for Topspeed ratings. To find these ratings click on the Topspeed symbol above the race.

    Any Topspeed rating(same surface, Turf or AW) in last 60 days within 5lbs of adjusted RPR rating……Add 3pts or 2pts(between 6 and 10lbs).

    If no qualifying rating within last 60 days, any adjusted Topspeed rating within 10lbs of adjusted RPR rating …..Add 1pt

    So, the Total Pts = adjusted RPR + extra RPR pts for recent form + bonus points for Topspeed ratings + extra points for horses which have had 3 runs or less.

    = adjusted RPR + max 3 + max 3 + max 6
    =adjusted RPR + max 12, or max 6 for horses with 4 races or more.

    The simple logic here is that you should end up with top rated horses which are rated best on form, with extra points for commensurate recent form and that form franked by comparable speed ratings.

    I’ll give it a try over a range of races starting tomorrow.

    #111183
    Spreadform
    Member
    • Total Posts 1

    Interesting approach, Artemis. Will be watching – good luck!

    Peter

    #111193
    Artemis
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1736

    Monday 13 August.

    Thirsk provides a selection of fairly moderate races. The ratings are as follows(top three):

    [b:l64ttyr8]5.55 Foreign Rhythm 99 3rd 5/2[/color:l64ttyr8]
    Sophies Girl 95 won 11/10f[/color:l64ttyr8]

    6.25 Graceful Descent 102 2nd 7/4f[/color:l64ttyr8]
    Intersky Melody 88

    6.55 Blue Empire 79 won 3/1f[/color:l64ttyr8]
    Crush On You 76
    Fairy Monarch 75
    Linden’s Lady 75 NR[/color:l64ttyr8]

    7.25 Tencendur 90 2nd 2/1f[/color:l64ttyr8]
    Joan Of Arc 88
    Spume 87 won 8/1
    [/color:l64ttyr8] Kalasam 87
    Run Free 87
    Coconut Queen 87
    Dressed To Dance 87

    7.55 Sharaab 73 2nd 10/11f[/color:l64ttyr8]
    Leonardo’s Friend 71
    Sweet Lavinia 71

    8.25 Foxy Music 100
    Hawaii Prince 100
    Deserted Dane 99
    Ishetoo 99 won 10/3[/color:l64ttyr8][/b:l64ttyr8]

    [b:l64ttyr8]Stakes 7.00 pts
    Returns 4.00
    Loss 3.00 pts[/color:l64ttyr8][/b:l64ttyr8]
    To get some idea of profitability, there will be a 1pt stake on each top-rated at SP. If there are joint top rated, there will be a 1pt stake on each horse and not split stakes.

    #111273
    grand lodge
    Member
    • Total Posts 57

    Nice bit of advertising, Peter. :roll:

    #111290
    dave jay
    Member
    • Total Posts 3386

    That’s not bad at all Artemis .. are you interested in the top rated or are you seeking a price ?

    #111303
    Artemis
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1736

    Dave,

    We should be looking for a price, always.

    However, as this is just experimental, I’m interested to see if this ‘ratings only’ approach can provide a respectable return at SP. It’s a very big ask given the unfairness of the SP market.

    The ratings plus positive factors approach should be doing better than it is, so I thought that I would isolate the ratings and also look at races in all grades.

    I can compare these tweaked RPR ratings against the RPR top-rated selections in the RP to see whether or not the tweaking makes any difference.

    #111306
    Artemis
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1736

    Tuesday 14 August

    Some very moderate racing at Brighton.

    [b:116ia77d]2.00 Prince Valentine 81 3rd 7/2f[/color:116ia77d]
    Corrib 77NR[/color:116ia77d]
    Danawi 77

    2.30 Commandment 94 won 2/9[/color:116ia77d]
    Saaratt 89

    3.00 Alfie Tupper 86

    3.30 Kyloe Belle 74
    Little Miss Tara 70
    Lunar River 69

    4.00 Prince Des Neiges 78 2nd 11/10f[/color:116ia77d]
    Marbaa 71
    Shaika 71

    4.30 Out For A Stroll 75
    Perfect Treasure 74 NR[/color:116ia77d]
    Majestical 72[/b:116ia77d]

    Stakes 6.00pts
    Returns 1.22
    Loss 4.88 pts

    Running Total
    Stakes 13pts Loss 7.78 pts
    [/color:116ia77d]

    #111382
    Artemis
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1736

    Wednesday 15 August

    A fair card at Sandown.

    [b:pkw5xky0]5.30 Royal Confidence 105 won 4/9[/color:pkw5xky0]
    Cordell 91

    6.00 Matsunosuke 101won 10/3[/color:pkw5xky0]
    One Way Ticket 99 NR[/color:pkw5xky0]
    Pic Up Sticks 99 NR[/color:pkw5xky0]

    6.35 Redelent 94 won 6/5[/color:pkw5xky0]
    Loyal Knight 93
    Resplendent Light 83

    7.05 Shevchenko 102 won 5/6[/color:pkw5xky0]
    Perfect Star 102 2nd 10/3[/color:pkw5xky0]
    World’s Heroine 102 NR[/color:pkw5xky0]
    Millestan 102 3rd 8/1[/color:pkw5xky0]

    7.40 Dar Es Salaam 98
    Muhannak 96
    Oakley Heffert 95

    8.10 Duty Free 94 2nd 9/4f[/color:pkw5xky0]
    Sweetheart 94 NR[/color:pkw5xky0]
    Alleviate 94 won 11/4[/color:pkw5xky0]
    Galianna 94

    Stakes 10.00pts
    Returns 13.55
    Profit 3.55 pts

    Running Total Stakes 23pts loss 4.23pts[/b:pkw5xky0][/color:pkw5xky0]

    #111447
    Artemis
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1736

    Thursday 16 August

    Sandown

    [b:2lsidb19]2.20 Silca Elegance 86
    Kondakova 84
    Rocker 84
    Billy Red 84

    2.50 Jedediah 108 won 5/6[/color:2lsidb19]

    3.25 Woodcote Place 105
    Music Note 104
    Sailor King 104

    4.00 Fidelia 107
    Safwa 103

    4.35 Magic Mountain 93

    5.10 Counsel’s Opinion 95
    Cinematic 94
    Lisathedaddy 94

    Stakes 6.00pts
    Returns 1.83
    Loss 4.17

    Running Total Stakes 29pts Loss 8.40pts [/b:2lsidb19][/color:2lsidb19]

    #111538
    Artemis
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1736

    Friday 17 August

    Newbury

    [b:1ehdtfwu]1.40 Eastern Gift 108 2nd 9/4f[/color:1ehdtfwu]

    2.10 Magicalmysterytour 100 won 8/1[/color:1ehdtfwu]
    Shore Thing 100
    Silver Suitor 100 2nd 11/4f[/color:1ehdtfwu]

    2.40 Reel Gift 129 NR[/color:1ehdtfwu]

    3.15 King’s Bastion 97
    Fabuleux Millie 97
    Jimmy Styles 97 won 9/1[/color:1ehdtfwu]
    Nouveau 98 should have been top rated here – my mistake.[/color:1ehdtfwu]

    3.50 Rolexa 94
    High And Dry 93
    Red Blossom 90
    Andmoreagain 90 won 9/2[/color:1ehdtfwu]

    4.20 Cortesia 81
    Apache Fort 81
    Atlantic Coast 80 won 10/3f[/color:1ehdtfwu]

    4.55 Border Edge 87
    Mythical Charm 87
    October Ben 86[

    Stakes 10.00pts
    Returns 9.00
    Loss 1.00 pt

    Running Total Stakes 39pts Loss 9.40pts[/b:1ehdtfwu][/color:1ehdtfwu]

    I haven’t got the time to post up every meeting I rate, which is a pity because there have been some very good returns from other meetings. I don’t believe in after- timing, but Salisbury on Wednesday, Beverley yesterday and Newcastle today were all very profitable backing the top rated(or joint top rated horses). I’ll try to post the top rated horses from a few more meetings as time permits.

    #111662
    Artemis
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1736

    Saturday 18 August

    I’ve looked at the three main meetings today and only given the top rated.
    Where there were joint top rated, I’ve given preference to the one with the best adjusted RPR, then the best latest RPR, and if they still cannot be separated, the best recent Topspeed rating.

    [b:3mzphg36]Newbury
    1.40 Seeking The Buck 85 2nd 9/4f[/color:3mzphg36]

    2.10 Ramona Chase 121

    2..45 Shahin 131 2nd 3/1[/color:3mzphg36]

    3.20 Silver Touch 134

    3.55 Burning Incense 115

    4.25 Rinterval 106 won 7/4f[/color:3mzphg36]

    5.00 Pippa Green 103 won 9/2[/color:3mzphg36]

    Newmarket

    1.55 Atheer Dubai

    2.25 Little Big Boy 98 won 5/1[/color:3mzphg36]

    3.00 Pic Up Sticks 101

    3.35 Royal Rock 121

    4.10 Lazy Darren 103

    4.45 Active Asset 94

    5.20 Venir Rouge 812nd 11/4f[/color:3mzphg36]

    Ripon

    2.05 Harrison George 98

    2.35 Zabougg 93

    3.10 Tia Mia 111

    3.45 Grantley Adams 119

    4.20 Soul Mountain 87

    4.50 Sweetsformysweet 85

    5.25 Smuggler’s Bay 104

    Stakes 21.00pts
    Returns 14.25
    Loss 6.75pts

    Running Total Stakes 60pts Loss16.15pts [/b:3mzphg36][/color:3mzphg36]

    #111729
    Artemis
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1736

    Sunday 19 August

    [b:zwf7sgw7]Pontefract
    2.10 Mister Fips 102 won 1/1f[/color:zwf7sgw7]

    2.40 Dzesmin 105

    3.10 Mr Mischief 81 3rd 6/1[/color:zwf7sgw7]

    3.40 Bee Eater 125 3rd 6/4f[/color:zwf7sgw7]

    4.10 The Grey Berry 109 3rd 13/2[/color:zwf7sgw7]

    4.40 Double Doors 89 3rd 15/8f[/color:zwf7sgw7]

    5.10 Never Without Me 93 won 9/2[/color:zwf7sgw7]

    Bath

    2.30 Hobson 100 won6/4f[/color:zwf7sgw7]

    3.00 Altenburg 87

    3.30 Don Pietro 93 2nd 7/1[/color:zwf7sgw7]

    4.00 Magical Music83 3rd 9/2[/color:zwf7sgw7]

    4.30 Basaata 122

    5.00 Caustic Wit 91 3rd 7/2[/color:zwf7sgw7]

    5.30 Endless Summer 84 2nd 11/4f[/color:zwf7sgw7]

    Stakes 14.00pts
    Returns 10.00
    Loss 4.00pts

    Running Total Stakes 74pts Loss 20.15pts[/color:zwf7sgw7][/b:zwf7sgw7]

    #111792
    Artemis
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1736

    Monday 20 August

    Leicester
    2.30 Doctor Faustus 95
    3.00 Angaric 100 NR[/color:3qrp4k30]
    3.30 Swift Princess 86 won 8/11[/color:3qrp4k30], High Five Society 86
    4.00 Beech Games 79
    4.30 Gallego 80
    5.00 Stir Crazy 81

    Wolverhampton
    2.15 Blackheath 82
    2.45 What Katie Did 97 won 5/4f[/color:3qrp4k30]
    3.15 Squirtle 76
    3.45 Spriggan 90 won4/6f[/color:3qrp4k30]
    4.15 Coeur Courageux 98
    4.45 Fulvio 61

    Windsor
    5.30 Swanky Lad 99
    6.00 Bridgewater Boys 67 won 8/11f[/color:3qrp4k30]
    6.30 Diane’s Choice 105
    7.00 Duchesse Royale 90
    7.30 King’s Event 95 won 4/5f[/color:3qrp4k30]
    8.00 Limbo King 82

    Yarmouth MEETING ABANDONED

    Stakes 18.00pts
    Returns 9.11
    Loss 8.89pts

    Running Total Stakes 92pts Loss 29.04pts[/color:3qrp4k30][/b:3qrp4k30]
    A lot of moderate racing. As this is ‘experimental’, the more races the better to give a good sample size.

    #111910
    Artemis
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1736

    Tuesday 21 August

    [b:102z83rv]York
    1.30 Galactic Star 113 won 6/1[/color:102z83rv]

    2.00 Septimus 134 won 6/5[/color:102z83rv]

    2.35 Yellowstone 138

    3.10 Dylan Thomas 145

    3.50 Tajdeef 114 NR[/color:102z83rv]

    4.25 Flawed Genius 106

    5.00 Cape Royal 121

    Stakes 6.00pts
    Returns 9.20
    Profit 3.20pts

    Running Total Stakes 98pts Loss 25.84pts [/color:102z83rv][/b:102z83rv]

    #112079
    Artemis
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1736

    Wednesday 22 August

    [b:22u3h5oa]York

    1.30 River Tiber 114

    2.00 Swiss Franc 129

    2.35 Purple Moon 128 won 7/2f[/color:22u3h5oa]

    3.10 Peeping Fawn 137 won 4/9f[/color:22u3h5oa]

    3.50 Captain Gerard 122 won 6/4f[/color:22u3h5oa]

    4.25 Moynahan 103 won 5/1[/color:22u3h5oa]

    5.00 Valery Borzov 118

    Stakes 7.00pts
    Returns 14.44
    Profit 7.44pts

    Running Total Stakes 106pts Loss 17.40pts[/b:22u3h5oa][/color:22u3h5oa]

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