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Should the market percentage depend on the size of the field, and if so, how much difference?
IE. The larger field, the higher percentage one should work their book to?
Very new to all of this so be gentle. <!– s:D –>
<!– s:D –>Thank you.
Yes – if you work on the basis of 2% per runner up to about 10 runners and then 1% per runner for every runner thereafter you won’t go far wrong.
Ie. 10 horse race = 12%
12 horse race = 122 %
If you are a layer price up over-round in the region of 110-120% i.e your odds will be 10-20% shorter than a round book, over field as a wholeEither way ‘value’ will be added to the odds assessed at a round 100%, which may help negate ‘errors’ in that assessment
IMVHO
A fascinating minefield awaits MD
I’d echo the comments made by Drone above. You should take into account any ‘charges’ you have to pay and factor in your anticipated profit margin.
For what it’s worth, I work to about 85% for my books (backing only). I also don’t try and get as close to the real market as possible. My guiding principle is ‘what should the price of this horse be’, not, ‘what do I think the price of this horse will be.’
Thanks IS – when does the default market percentage begin to increase? If I work to 90%, is that for an average field size, say 6 or 7 runners? And for every additional runner the market rises by 2% to 10 runners and 1% thereafter as you mentioned?
Drone I am planning to work my tissue to 90 or 95% to ensure a healthy profit margin.
I also don’t try and get as close to the real market as possible. My guiding principle is ‘what should the price of this horse be’, not, ‘what do I think the price of this horse will be.’
Assessing the field as a whole, not as individuals? Sounds like a very logical approach ROF.
If you bet to under 100% on any given race/sports market etc. then you will be betting "overbroke" ie. it would be possible to back every possible outcome of the race.
As ReasonOverFaith mentions betting and percentages are altered by market forces, if you bet to say 3% per runner for every race then when a bookmaker is betting to 121% you might be betting to 134% and as such your prices for each horse should be bigger, any horse that you’re shorter about will definitely be a good value bet.
Would also add that your book should be based on what you think the horses chances of winning are rather than how you think the market will judge it.
respect to anyone attempting tissues, but my prices fluctuate dramatically after paddock inspection and moving to post.
how can you factor this?
respect to anyone attempting tissues, but my prices fluctuate dramatically after paddock inspection and moving to post.
how can you factor this?
You can’t in the early morning Barry – it’s taken on trust that each horse is fit and well enough to run it’s race. As with most things the horse you rate at 20/1 based on what it’s done on the track might not be a 20/1 chance in someone elses eyes ie. a trainer or owner going for a touch.
You can only make your early morning prices based on the information you have in front of you ie. the form. External factors such as those mentioned above cannot be factored in at such an early stage nor in most cases unless you’re actually at the track.
As a regular armchair form analyst I agree with Irish Stamp that any tissue can only take into account known facts. The layers have to operate to chnaging market conditions. Take my analysis on Lays & Plays today for the Leicester 3.30 it seems I am wildy out of sync with the market. my top 3 are:
Swift Chap 5/1 @ 100%. Won Newbury and dropped 8lbs.
Sovereign Lady 6/1 @100%. Improver from AW up 12lbs?
Mabait 6/1 @ 100%. AW winner over 7f – D?By comparison if I go to the RP betting forecast and strip out the possible overround (118.4%). This is forecast by the compiler as a restricted race to be won by one of Sovereign Lady, Mabait, Swift Chap so there we agree. However, his percentages/prices after stripping out the overround are:
Sovereign Lady 36.4% 9/4 stake £31 to return £100(current Betfair 9/4)
Mabait 20.0% 5/1 stake £17 to return £100(BF 3/1)
Swift Chap 15.4% 13/2 stake £14 to return £100(BF 13/2)Between them they appear to have over a 70% chance of winning the race so betting at the RP forecast fair odds you should have a fair chance of a return
Sorry IS – don’t think I got the answer I was after. Let me rephrase, or at least try to.
What would be the most suitable percentage that I should work my tissue towards for … 5 runners, 7 runners, 9 runners, 11 runners etc etc?
I speak of working my book towards 90 or 95%, but is that percentage for a default number of runners, say 5 or 6?
Provide examples if possible.
No worries Miles:
For 5 runners I’d go for 110%
For 7 runners 114%
For 9 runners 118%
For 11 runners 122 %
Each runner over 12 then 1% per runner.I wouldn’t try and create a book to 90 or 95% as that isn’t the way the bookmaker bets his book so in theory there will be at least 2 or 3 good bets in every race betting to 90% or so, in betting to a higher overound than the bookmaker (or a very similar overound) then you’ll ensure that the horses that come out of your tissue as "good value" definitely are good value rather than you just being 25 or 30% under the bookies.
If that makes sense (sorry If i’ve misunderstood the question again).
Mdeering I assume you want to price up a race for the purpose of backing or laying.
I would keep it simple. Construct a 100% book. This would represent, (in your opinion), the actual chance of the horses, a fair book that offers no advantage to backer or layer.
If you are backing, back your selections where the price available is bigger than your price,
and if laying, lay your selections where the price is smaller than your price.
Bit off topic but the Post betting forecast for the 1:55 Punchestown tomorrow must be in the running for the worst tissue ever: 7/4 Silver Jaro is at least an 8/1 chance and 5/1 Psycho would be value at half those odds!
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Odds don’t make a horse run faster
- Total Posts 17716
Odds don’t make a horse run faster
Hmm. With some yards, I believe they do.
As long as you know them yards then David I am sure you’ll do well for yourself.
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