The home of intelligent horse racing discussion
The home of intelligent horse racing discussion

Question for rab123

Home Forums Archive Topics Systems Question for rab123

Viewing 17 posts - 1 through 17 (of 37 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #1320931
    billion
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4375

    Knowing you have acess to a horse racing data base I am wondering if it is possible to find the answers which may lead me towards further development of an idea which is currently rattling around in this old brain of mine.

    I am thinking only of small field handicap races of any class/grade.

    Starting with NH and perhaps separating hurdle and chases and having no regard to distance.

    The question is – which race card number produces the most winners.

    If you are able to find the results rab123 can the same answer be found for the flat.

    I have a theory that if the highest value handicap race of the day with limited field numbers, say 6 to 12 was then followed by betting the most successful race card number (say number 5) it may prove profitable but finding which card number to follow will hold the key.

    :scratch: :scratch: :scratch:

    Billy's Outback Shack

    #1320961
    Avatar photorab123
    Participant
    • Total Posts 496

    Billion…I will have a look to night band come back to you.

    #1320972
    billion
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4375

    That is kind of you rab123.

    There is no need to bust a gut because anytime will do. I would like to have done it for myself but could not find any where via google where the required info was available.

    An ideal race was run today 3.55 Leicester Class 2, value £15,752 with only 7 declared. What I am wishing for is perhaps selections I would not normally favour and may oblige now and again at a good price.

    :bye: :bye: :bye:

    Billy's Outback Shack

    #1321034
    Avatar photorab123
    Participant
    • Total Posts 496

    Good Morning Billion

    I have run them through HRB and PR ratings nothing better than 20% and very poor ROI
    why not use the three Daily Mirror symbols and narrow the field down that way.I will keep
    looking to see if I can improve the strike.

    #1321066
    billion
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4375

    Thank-you rab123

    20% SR may not be so bad and gives a starting point for a little bit of paper trading. I will only be looking at one race each day and being the one I think is most suitable. Today’s race being 2.25 Ludlow – Class 3 – Val. £7,798 – 6 declared. Who knows the strike rate may be greater for such races??????

    I am not sure what you mean by D. Mirror symbols although for today’s race the pointers are for POETIC LADY = SF & 2 tips incl. Bouverie nap plus a West Country (Gallops) mention via the D. Express.

    :bye: :bye: :bye:

    Now there is a funny thing, whilst awaiting the best thought of race card number I fiddled with yesterday’s better race plumping for the “Top Weight” (never a bad thing to do in handicaps) which failed, today I ignored the top weight, which went on to win :scratch:

    Billy's Outback Shack

    #1323186
    Avatar photorab123
    Participant
    • Total Posts 496

    BILLION..I have come up with something all back fitted numbers 5/6/7 40% strike rate
    since 2013…. not runners every day I will post when there are.

    #1323262
    billion
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4375

    BILLION..I have come up with something all back fitted numbers 5/6/7 40% strike rate
    since 2013…. not runners every day I will post when there are.

    This is interesting rab123.

    Is 40% individual strike rates or 5/6/7 combined?

    If taken from handicaps has there been specific number of declared runners.

    Any information in isolation will be of great help.

    :good: :good: :good:

    Billy's Outback Shack

    #1323351
    Avatar photorab123
    Participant
    • Total Posts 496

    Good morning BILLION 5..6..7 are the numbers to look at 5 is the best with a 25% strike
    rate thats in both handicap and non.I have tried most angles but can not improve it.I will
    keep at it and come back to you if I do.

    #1323394
    billion
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4375

    Thanks rab123.

    25% strike rate is a great starting point and already I have figured the number 5 is a good starting point but with an expected 25% SR it is a real booster.

    I hope by only going for the highest value/class race of the day it may improve, fingers crossed.

    Are these numbers covering all races or those with limited fields?

    :good: :good: :good:

    Billy's Outback Shack

    #1323442
    Avatar photorab123
    Participant
    • Total Posts 496

    BILLION
    No runners 1-10 Class 3-5

    #1323529
    billion
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4375

    Once again thanks to rab123 for all the help.

    I will pay more attention to what you suggest.

    Carlisle 4.25 BIGIRONONHISHIP at 2/1

    Ludlow 3.00 DAREBIN at 5/2 . . . WON 3/1

    :bye: :bye: :bye:

    Billy's Outback Shack

    #1323650
    billion
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4375

    DAREBIN proves this to be a possible system.

    KINGSTON STAR (Doncaster 4.10) looks to be a bit of a longshot if the price of 14/1 is on the ball.
    One furlong out and I thought it was possible to have a big priced winner but it was not to be and was placed 3rd

    A Class 3 handicap with 9 declared at £7,561 feels like the right kind of race but I do have reservations regarding the selection ? ? ?

    :scratch: :scratch: :scratch:

    Billy's Outback Shack

    #1323811
    billion
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4375

    Saturday October 28

    I am unsure regarding the race selection and so will not be playing today.

    :cry: :cry: :cry:

    SUNDAY: –

    Although perhaps just shy of being the highest value race my vote goes to

    SOME ARE LUCKY (3.35 Aintree) [was available at 11/2 Saturday evening]

    :bye: :bye: :bye:

    Billy's Outback Shack

    #1323845
    Avatar photorab123
    Participant
    • Total Posts 496

    I like the looks of the No5’s at DONCASTER.

    #1323951
    billion
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4375

    Hi rab123.

    This holds a similar style to the Number 12’s don’t you think?

    I have not checked the Doncaster results but will do.

    My sole thinking is to play one race each day, being the one of highest value where possible or perhaps the next race of highest value but do like the Class 3/4/5 with 10 max. runners.

    I will be ineterested with the results of more than the one race each day should you keep any records.

    Good luck with it.

    :bye: :bye: :bye:

    Billy's Outback Shack

    #1324015
    Avatar photorab123
    Participant
    • Total Posts 496

    Three today BILLION
    2.10 Winc Ken’s Well
    2.45 Winc Mosspark **** richest race
    3.35 Aint Some are Lucky

    #1324131
    billion
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4375

    Not much luck for us yesterday rab123

    I changed my mind for todays bet, having first plumped for ROCK STEADY (1.20 Leicester) being the most valuable race but having ignored to my cost my rule of being off the track for 90+ days being a NO BET I am re-introducing, I am swerving CORNERSTONE LAD in the 2.15.

    MINELLA SUITE (3.50 Ayr) at 13/8 is my one for the day. . . . LOST!

    :bye: :bye: :bye:

    Billy's Outback Shack

Viewing 17 posts - 1 through 17 (of 37 total)
  • You must be logged in to reply to this topic.