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There is little doubt Big Zeb is at his best on good ground. But his chance has surely been over-estimated. Where as master Minded has been friendless, seemingly because he "does not act as well on good". Paul Nicholls opinion of the horse has made a difference to the prices, more than it should. The Tingle Creek here was on good ground and slaughtered Petit Robin. As long as it is not good-firm should be ok. There is some doubts in the trainer’s mind about the course (left-handed, yet Master Minded has a great record there, unbeaten when fit and well (had a breathing op since last year. Jumps really well, slightly out to the right, but record suggests it makes no difference. His last race was run at a frantic pace. AP went for home too soon, much better than distances suggest. That race was 2m1f on good-soft. Somersby got close, but this is on much firmer ground and a furlong shorter. Somersby needed the extra furlong to get anywhere near Master Minded at Ascot. Unless Henrietta Knight’s horse really attacks from the start, will get outspeeded on this surface.
Big Zeb possibly ran a similar race to Master minded’s Ascot race last time, going for home too early and nabbed late by Golden Silver. But the difference in prices of those two is rediculous. Golden Silver is never far away from Big Zeb in Ireland. Mullins horse proved at Punchestown last year he acts on good. Possibly does not act at Cheltenham, but they said that about Zeb last year. Might do better with hold up tactics. Looks a fair price today, but not as good as Woolcombe Folly.
Looks an outstanding each way bet at todays prices. At his best on a sound surface going left-handed (jumped markedly left at Ascot). Make no mistake, only very good horses win handicaps under top weight that easily, in that time. Carried more than Master Minded over the same course, on the same day, yet put up a better time. If he’s over what stopped him running in the Game Spirit, will give them all a fright.My 100% Book:
Master Minded 5/2
, Big Zeb 100/30,
Woolcombe Folly 9/2
, Somersby 10/1, Golden Silver 13/1, French Opera 22/1, Sizing Europe 25/1, Captain Cee Bee 25/1, Cornas 200/1, Mad Max 300/1, I’m So Lucky 500/1.
Can’t have Sizing Europe, to my mind hasn’t improved this term (is a 9 year old now). Captain Cee Bee is even older, breaks blood vessels and has never put up a chase performance anywhere good enough. French Opera has a chance of a place if improving a bit, but difficult to see enough to trouble an in form Master Minded. Mad Max now tubed, looks to have gone the wrong way temperamentally.
I’ve got 6/1 Master Minded, 7/2 is too big. 9/1 looks amazing value Woolcombe Folly, if he’s 100% fit.
Value Is EverythingThat sounds like an amazingly good offer, Kasparov.
I am big on Big Zeb in this. My next best of the festival.
If he jumps he wins. Master Minded may struggle to be placed in this as I feel his engine is not as it was.
I will do Sizing Europe who will love the ground and is a spring horse for a cheeky RFC.
Zip
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Master Minded is the price he is because he ran below par lto. All this talk of him going too soon was engendered by AP himself, yet clearly ignores he was ridden in exactly the same manner in a previous VC, on slower ground and at a faster pace, yet still lasted home much better than his latest outing.
7/2 might look generous on previous form, I wouldn’t touch it with a bargepole.If the ground is riding quick today, it wont suit Master Minded as much as it would with a bit of give in the ground.
If the going is quick, i would be tempted to back either Sizing Europe or Big Zeb in the Queen Mother.
Woolcombe Folly on good ground will be very interesting in a Group 1 race.
It is a wide open race. I have never backed Sizing Europe, but 2 miles is his trip, he ran a great race in the Arkle last year and if the ground is on the quick side, he must go very close.
Can see Big Zeb being backed before the off and Master Minded easing in the market if the ground is quick, will have to see how the races before the Queen Mother, seem to be.
Master Minded is the price he is because he ran below par lto. All this talk of him going too soon was engendered by AP himself, yet clearly ignores he was ridden in exactly the same manner in a previous VC, on slower ground and at a faster pace, yet still lasted home much better than his latest outing.
7/2 might look generous on previous form, I wouldn’t touch it with a bargepole.I believe Reet, some well known TRF members (if not in other places) have looked at the sectionals which prove the early pace at Ascot was too strong. If the pace in the "previous VC" was not as as break neck early on, then the leader would be able to keep the gallop up. In this race Reet, the early pace was too quick. The amount MM was below form has also been over-estimated. Somersby improved given a test of stamina at the trip; with a big gap to the third.
Value Is EverythingIf the ground is riding quick today, it wont suit Master Minded as much as it would with a bit of give in the ground.
Can see Big Zeb being backed before the off and Master Minded easing in the market if the ground is quick, will have to see how the races before the Queen Mother, seem to be.
Depends what you call "quick" Gaz:
Obviously I have reduced my price a bit for good ground, especially as so many of his rivals arguably need good ground. On a soft surface I’d have Master Minded at around 13/8. However, on genuinely good ground, I think the market has over-reacted. On genuinely good-firm I would be worried about MM and would not make him favourite.I’ve gone in again @ 9/2 (all I could with SJ, which wasn’t much) and Ladbrokes 4/1. I suspect with this amount of movement in the market, the drift is led by negatives in the Racing Post (though not got one).
Think Big Zeb’s price is also an over-reaction in the other direction. Astounded Woolcombe Folly has not been backed on the ground, may be he is not fit (missed Game Spirit)?
Value Is Everything- Total Posts 17716
Not quite sure what to do here. I do know one thing though. I couldn’t back Woolcombe Folly under any circumstances against this lot. Not good enough for a Cheltenham winner. Hasn’t got a hope!
Now, watch that romp home!
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again…Somersby has the largest head I’ve ever seen on a thoroughbred!
I hope he never lands too steeply – he’ll look like a giant ostrich!
keen on sizing europe because of the ground + 2miles is his trip.
havent had a single winner yet so watch him come last
somersby is a monster of a horse
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Well done Beau ( and others )! Hope that puts you back in front. I’m just happy my lay was one of the first beaten.
Good Run by Cee Bee.
Masterminded finished as been said numerous times on this forum
He’s done me a favour two years running now. I remember when some said the horse lacked bottle. Where are they now?
Corm, can I change my name to Sizing Europe?
I think this horse is best over two, but does stay three. China Rock ran with distinction in the Irish Hennessy (jockey went too soon) and now Sizing Europe wins the Champion Chase.
Kauto’s Down Royal success doesn’t look too shabby.
From being a fan of SE since he won the Greatwood Hurdle and was trotting up in the Champion when something went wrong, I’d totally lost faith in him; even during a good novice year and didn’t seem to finish his races out. This he has beenn beaten fair and square.
So this performance has astonished me; he accelearted away up the hill like a really good horse. I’d like to see him stepped up for the Gold Cup
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