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Rosallion 6/1 Ladbrokes
I’d have left him unchanged at around 7/2
Soft going would be the hinderance but had to lump on at that priceCharles Darwin to conquer the World
For me Dancing Gemini on quick ground again would be a worry if I were a backer. I am absolute garbage at AP punting, sorry to say Nathan I would side with your selection
Lead Artist is not really too appealing for me as an ap bet, but I’ve taken the 9-2 this morning
Carl Spackler will have a coin or two ew for me , 20s ish by looks . Very classy horse but off the tight turns of US onto Ascot straight mile a question , and might need some give .
Irish Bred , Ex US trained , brought by Yulong now trained by Ciaron Maher from OZ . He wont have been cheap .
News reports state hes worked very well at Newmarket .The fact you can back rosallian & notable speech to a level stake and come out winning is a gift,
However, ill be all over rosallion @11/4, biggest bet of the season by a distance, theres only one who can beat him and its NS and hes such a generous price @11/2 that i cant not have a decent e/w play
Ill be in trouble for the week if they both flop.
Cant see it though, should be straightforward.
Not a chance LA or DG get anywhere close this time, two early season horses, rest are just making up numbers, not worth mentioning
I’d have liked Rosallion to have been drawn a little closer to the pace but it shouldn’t be too much of an inconvenience …
Charles Darwin to conquer the World
I thought Rosallion ran a really nice race from that layoff so put a saver on him at 11/4 but Lead Artist worth a main bet at 9/2.
He gets his ground and with that proven stamina of his I see no reason why this Ascot mile wouldn’t benefit him more than what Newbury did.“I’d have liked Rosallion to have been drawn a little closer to the pace but it shouldn’t be too much of an inconvenience … :scratch:”
Although there is nothing that actually needs to lead, there are four (if not five) who like to be at or near the pace.
I’d expect Cairo from stall 11 to be at least on the pace if not setting it.
Rosallion is drawn right next to Cairo in 10, Nathan…
And not far from Quddwah (in 7) who made the running last time out and stands little chance against this company unless he gets a positional advantage – so might also go forward here.
Sardinian Warrior (drawn 4) has led in minor races, but not in his last two (listed and Group 1 company. Raced around half a length behind the pace setter last time.
Diego Velazquez (in stall 1) is quite a way from Rosallion, but although is never far away from the pace he’s yet to actually make it.
Even Lead Artist (in 3) who has been “held up” in the past, but produced a pb by racing more prominently than usual in the Lockinge – so connections might also want a fairly prominent position.So I’d say the probable pace is likely to be fast enough for the hold up horses to be effective… And Rosallion is near to the most likely pace setters.
That said, for me he’s plenty short enough in what looks an open race. Could be he has the best form going into the race, but has been off the track since showing that form… And although he isn’t in “bad form”, Hannon isn’t in as good form as the trainers of the other (betting) principles – Appleby, Teal and Gosden. Hannon will be hoping one of his two at Windsor tonight wins. One – River King – seems to hold an excellent chance.
The others obviously have other negatives:
Better runs can be expected from Rosallion and Notable Speech than their Newbury reappearances. Although the latter disappointed in the St James’s Palace last year.
I had a good win on Lead Artist in the Lockinge. But is his apparent inconsistency due to sweating / getting edgy on the big / hot days?
Dancing Gemini seemed to be going best a furlong out that day and didn’t find as much as I thought he would. Was that due to the sectionals or the ground? His trainer blamed the surface, but tbh on “form figures” he ran at least as well as previously.
Sardinian Warrior almost beat the Arc favourite Sosie over 9f after travelling best for a long way. Could be more to come dropped back to a mile, but will it be enough?
Lake Forest seemed to improve in Australia, a little more would see him competitive here. But is yet to prove himself at a mile, let alone a stiff mile like this.
Diego Velazquez has been well beaten in Group 1’s and yet produced some good runs in lesser races to suggest he’s worthy of another chance. But was disappointing – beaten before stamina became an issue – at last year’s Royal Ascot… And also hasn’t had a run this season. Most of AOB’s have needed their first run. That said, DV himself has seemed effective first time out before.
…And Carl Sparkler might have started favourite for this had it been set in the USA… And before his sale from the successful Chad Brown (USA) yard to Australia. What is he still capable of for his new trainer?
Docklands was placed in this last year and goes particularly well at Ascot. Maybe a place only bet? But there seems more quality overall in this Queen Anne.
Quddwah won a listed race with some ease last time out, but hard to say he improved. Shouldn’t really be good enough on form and has a high head carriage. May not be 100% temperamentally.
Cairo was placed in the Group 2 Huxley last time out but he struggles to win in that grade. So – unless they leave him alone up front – it’s difficult to see him figuring.Value Is EverythingYes, I get that Ginger but Cairo will only take him so far. The like hood is Lead Artist is the one to be following
Rosallion wasn’t too short after the Lockinge ..
Charles Darwin to conquer the World
I’ve gone for Lead Artist 5-1 ew 4 places
Whilst Rosallion and Notable Speech were batting it out in the Group 1 2000 Guineas, and Dancing Gemini was trying his luck in the Group 1 French Guineas a week later, Lead Artist had only just started his racing career having run once in a maiden race. It may just be that he has been a late developer, and is just beginning to establish himself on the big stage, in which case he looks a decent ew shout and a possible for the win.
Lead Artist may have only just started his career when Rosallion and Notable Speech were fighting out the Guineas, Mike. But since then Lead Artist has now got the same number of starts / racetrack experience as Notable Speech and actually more than Rosallion. It’s also possible Lead Artist’s Lockinge victory was no (or not a lot) better than his 1 1/2 lengths victory in the Darley Stakes when carrying a penalty. Only getting 1 lb from the older horse Liberty Lane (on his next start after a great weight carrying performance in the Cambridgeshire).
Lead Artist could improve, but his stable companion is perhaps the most likely to progress, having had only 6 starts to Lead Artist’s 9. Rosallion and Notable Speech could yet progress too.
Very true Nathan.
If I had seen 6/1 available Rosallion I would’ve taken it too.Value Is EverythingMy Queen Anne 100% Book:
22% 7/2 Rosallion
16% 11/2 DANCING GEMINI (currently 13/2 on betfair)
14% 6/1 Lead Artist
13.75% between 6/1 and 13/2 NOTABLE SPEECH (currently 15/2 on betfair)
13% 13/2 Sardinian Warrior (already backed @ 12/1)
6.25% 15/1 CARL SPARKLER (currently 20/1 with Hills)
6.25% 15/1 Diego Velazquez
6.25% 15/1 Lake Forest
1.5% 66/1 Docklands
0.75% 132/1 Quddwah
0.25% 400/1 CairoValue Is Everything“But since then Lead Artist has now got the same number of starts / racetrack experience as Notable Speech and actually more than Rosallion.”
I’m not disputing that, what I was getting at is that horses that start their careers a year late (missing 2 year old season) can progress with another year on their back. Lead Artist made some of that progression from 3 to 4 to win at group 1 level last time on his first attempt. I’m taking the view that there may be more to come from the horse. The ground and the stiff mile should suit. Notable Speech and Rosallion were the ‘big guns’ of last season and deserve plenty of respect, let’s see tomorrow if they have still got the gears.
The market move for Gosden’s other horse seems a bit weird. John Gosden said last week in an Ascot preview “He ran a very nice race in France and it’s nice to have a second string.”
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