Quebec Stakes 2009

[Colin Little]

Last year, this race was won by Dansant, who managed to break the course record in the process. He doesn’t line up this year, but the 2nd home, Suits Me does.

The most relevant line of form is probably the Churchill Stakes, run over this C+D a few weeks back. Tranquil Tiger won that race, with Suits Me (3rd) & Plum Pudding (5th). All things being equal, there doesn’t seem any obvious reason why that form should be reversed. That was a strange race though. A couple of horses seemed to go blazing off, & the pace seemed strong….but the finishing time was not overly quick at 2.04.35, which is over 3 seconds outside the course record. I know Suits Me can run faster than that, & I would have thought TT could as well.

Much as I like TT, I’ve always fancied there’s a chance of getting him beaten (or him beating himself), by using up too much energy early & folding up close home. I think the last race panned out well for him, he was able to get a lead & settle, and I was proved wrong with him. He’s drawn in stall 1 for this, & with no other obvious front-runners, apart from Suits Me, he may have to make the pace. The last race may have been a turning point though, & they may have decided it’s best to try & get a lead.

I think that Suits Me will run his usual solid race over his favourite C+D. They are quite wise with him, if he ends up in front, it will be at a slower tactical pace, that could suit him. Baylini is another who loves Lingfield, I worry for her in as race like this though, she has the potential to run well, but would get murdered by the handicapper if she does.

If anything is going to trump the Churchill Stakes form, it may be Saphira’s Fire. Based on weights allotted & OR’s, she comes out as the best horse in the race. She’s certainly been campaigned as though she’s a good horse, running almost entirely in group & listed races, including some G1’s. Although she’s run OK the last couple of times, dropped to Listed class you may have expected her to do a little better. Her win record is not very good, although her hold-up style will suit. I wouldn’t be rushing to back her.

Can’t say I know a lot about Sky Crusader, but his form does look quite decent. He has experience on the AW at Deuaville & at Kempton, the distance will be OK & his running style will suit. He’s the horse that could end up over-priced.

The only other obvious candidate would be Settigano. He won on the AW at Dundalk last time after a break. I’m a little unsure how good his form is, but my instinct is that it’s not as strong as the Uk & French form.

Anybody have any ideas ?

[douginho]

I haven’t looked at the decs just what you have said but I’d be with Tranquil Tiger. He won very cosily last time, probably being suited by what appeared to be a good gallop. I’d have no worries about him attempting to make all, even at Lingfield where that is notoriously difficult. Suits Me ran up a sequence around this time last year but I dont think he is quite as good as Tranquil Tiger. I am going to say that the form of the Churchill Stakes will be upheld tomorrow.

[Colin Little]

Thought the time of this race was well worthy of a mention. It was won in 2.02.01, which imo puts both Tranquil Tiger & Suits Me right up there amongst the fastest horses ever over this 10f trip at Lingfield.

Only Dansant (current 10f course record holder), Cusoon (twice) & Blue Bajan (in the same race as Cusoon) have ever run a faster pure time.

If you want to go down the route of accurate weight-adjusted ratings (which I don’t at Lingfield), you could agrue that Traquil Tiger should be 2nd only to Dansant. I was left with the impression he could have gone faster as well, as he travelled really well through the race.

I feel a bit sorry for Suits Me, he’s ran a lifetime best, & they are so clever with him when they dictate the race from the front like that.

It seems that TT is quite versatile, which is useful around Lingfield. Although he hasn’t found himself in one of Lingfields very slow tactical races yet..as the Winter Derby could be.

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