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It may be a bit early to e thinking of Cheltenham 2009 but when opportunities to make a few quid come along you have to be on the ball.
As much as I like Master Minded and backed him to win the QMCC renewal I am beginning to wonder if I have made a big mistake.
He was mega impressive at Cheltenham but the truth is he beat very little.
Tidal Bay on the otherhand won a much more competitive Arkle. He silenced his critics when it mattered most then rubbed salt in their wounds at Aintree.
I think we have to ask ourselves was it purely distance that beat Master Minded at Aintree or is there a chink in his armour. Afterall there is propbaly not much between 2 miles round Cheltenham and the much easier 2m4f at Aintree.
The way Master Minded came up the hill at Cheltenham not many would have thought he wouldn’t get the trip.
Perhaps it is just a stamina thing but I have my doubts. I watched the race on several occasions and the truth of the matter is VPU the writing was on the wall 3 from home. That’s a long way out and surely if stamina was the reason then it should not have come into play so early.
Of course It could be Cheltenham took more out of him than we know he was over the top. I think that is more likely and he may well bounce back and go on to win the QMCC again but surely Tidal Bay is worth a few quid at what could turn out to be a stonking bet if he were to meet MM early in the season and turn him over.
It’s not a race I would be remotely interested in as an ante-post proposition, Fists.
Master Minded’s defeat at Aintree could be down to any number of reasons. It might be stamina related, he may not have acted on Aintree’s sharp track, he may not have recovered quickly enough after Cheltenham or possibly VPU is a much better horse over 2m4f.
Whilst Tidal Bay was a very impressive Arkle winner, and looks just about the only logical one to oppose Master Minded with, he still needs to find the best part of a stone improvement to even get the Nicholls horse into a race. And there is every chance he will be upped in trip and campaigned at beyond 2m this season anyway.
Given we are about 7 months from the race, and Tidal Bay currently trades at only 6/1 top-price, there would seem to be very little reason to be enthusiastic about this proposed wager.
Could be right but they have nothing to lose by having at least one crack at Master Minded. If they do take him on early in the season and beat him??? I think you are way of the mark with the weight difference. No way on earth would he give a stone to Tidal Bay IMO
Could be right but they have nothing to lose by having at least one crack at Master Minded. If they do take him on early in the season and beat him??? I think you are way of the mark with the weight difference. No way on earth would he give a stone to Tidal Bay IMO
That’s true Fist, but ‘giving him a crack’ at Master Minded is one thing – backing him at 6/1 in September, to repeat the dose in the Champion Chase in March is another, I’m sure you would agree.
If Tidal Bay were to turn Master Minded over in, say, the Tingle Creek, I don’t see that you make much of a trading gain either. You would probably be looking at 2/1 and 4/1 the pair for Cheltenham, with any price the rest. I couldn’t see any circumstances where Tidal Bay would jump to favouritism in the CC, unless Master Minded was injured – a beaten effort behind Tidal Bay would most likely just be written-off, and he’d remain fave for the race in March, until another calamity befell him.
As for the weight concession, you may be right, though I personally doubt it. I think there is a stone minimum between them at present, and probably a good few lbs more in favour of Clive Smith’s horse. It’s all about opinions.
Regardless, watching this pair go head-to-head next season will make for compelling viewing – even if it should only happen the once.
I noticed the name Tidal Bay and decided a reply was needed!!
I told anyone who would listen that this horse was the best novice chaser in training after his defeat to Leslingtaylor. Any horse, even the most seasoned veteran, who belts two fences the way he did that day should end up on the deck. Not only did the horse stay on his feet, he showed incredible tenacity to nearly catch the former Swinton Hurdle winner.
His Arkle victory was stunning. A vastly underrated ride from Denis O’Regan, who gave the horse a lesson in jumping that day, made the difference. After a few slow early jumps, Denis kicked the horse into nearly every fence, making him jump.
During the race, Tidal Bay went from being good to very good.
Tidal Bay learned a lesson at Cheltenham and he jumped with greater fluency at Aintree. Don’t underestimate what he achieved. To win at both Cheltenham and Aintree is tough, but this horse not only won, he was again impressive. Richard Pitman said after the race ‘If he had hit the last fence he would never have stopped rolling’. The same applied to his Festival win. Rarely have I seen a horse travelling at that speed at the end of two miles at Cheltenham.
I think this is the most talented novice chaser I’ve seen. He’s got the size and the athleticism. The speed and the stamina. The class and the courage.
A lot of people think he’s ungenuine because of his awkward head carriage. The way he battled back in defeat to Leslingtaylor proved that he’s no sulker. Although he may not be entirely straight-forward.
His head carriage is one thing, but the way he jinked at the second last at Aintree makes him an intriguing character. Either he’s got his own ideas about the game or he’s not entirely sure what he’s doing.
His defeat to Wichita Lineman in 2007 aside, he’s never been beaten further than a length and he’s never finished outside the first two, He was a good bumper horse, a very good hurdler and he’s got the potential to be a great chaser. He has all the right attributes.
It’s a huge compliment by the trainer that Tidal Bay was entered in both novice events at Cheltenham. Mr Howard Johnson, on the prospect of his horse falling in the Arkle and still competing in the SunAlliance, said ‘No worries, he can handle it’.
Tidal Bay will stay two miles-four, no problem. In fact, he’ll improve for it. I think he’ll stay three, too. The Gold Cup may be slightly too far, but he’s so good that you just don’t know.
Master Minded Vs Tidal Bay over two miles? I like MM. I was very critical of his rating and some people went way OTT after his Queen Mother romp. Even Richard Dunwoody called him ‘The best he’s ever seen’. He didn’t stay at Aintree and due to an accumulation of circumstances, he may have been flattered at Cheltenham.
Tidal Bay must improve to beat MM, but 14lbs, based purely on ability? No way.
I eagerly anticipate Tidal Bay Vs Kauto Star / Denman, too.
I doubt even these two high class individuals, including a legend like Kauto, could give Tidal Bay 14lbs and a beating.
In my opinion, he’d give any of them a race off level weights over any distance between two and three miles.
He’s that good.
I admire your confidence, Bosranic, and I completely agree that Tidal Bay looks an above-average Arkle winner. However, on my interpretation of his form, he still has plenty of improvement to make, before he’s going to be troubling any of the three Nicholls horses you mentioned.
Based on On Official Ratings – not thay they are gospel, far from it – there is 20lbs between Master Minded and Tidal Bay over 2m (though I would probably peg it at 17lbs myself). Obviously, Tidal Bay has plenty of scope to improve further next season, but at only 5yo, it’s not inconceivable that the same applies to Master Minded.
IMO, Tidal Bay didn’t improve on his Cheltenham form at Aintree, and his Festival performance was the benchmark for 2m novice chasers last season. It was a high-calibre effort – definitely one of the top Arkle performances of the last 10 years – but we are talking about an exceptional chaser in Master Minded.
As for Kauto Star and Denman, given Tidal Bay’s questionable stamina, I would be 100% confident that both could give a stone and a beating to Tidal Bay over 3m. Again, we are talking about two exceptional chasers, who operate at a level beyond what even ‘top-class’ stayers are capable of.
Given the talk earlier this year about which race Tidal Bay was going to run in at the Festival, I will be amazed if he is kept to 2m as a non-novice.
I also doubt he will step up to 3m+ so I’d say he will be contesting the 2m4f races this season
Given the talk earlier this year about which race Tidal Bay was going to run in at the Festival, I will be amazed if he is kept to 2m as a non-novice.
I wouldn’t completely agree with that. Given Alan King’s language last week, there would seem to be practically no chance that we’ll see Voy Por Contesting the main 2m prizes next season, and apart from him and Master Minded the 2m division is pretty weak (some would argue that doesn’t even extend as far as Voy Por!). With the "Ryanair" division looking stronger than ever next year (Our Vic, Voy Por, The Listener, Taranis, Mossbank etc), there is a good argument there for keeping Tidal Bay to 2m, as much as I subscribe to the notion that 2m4-3m will be his optimum.
Should I be setting up Cheltenham ’09 area? You jumps boys are keen.
Wee bit early for that, Corm, I would have thought.
Set it up tomorrow.
Nothing wrong with talking about Cheltenham, even at this early stage – it promises to be a cracking NH season!
As for Tidal Bay, I’ll let the horse do the talking.
I agree, Master Minded, Kauto Star and Denman are exceptional, but I firmly believe, as I said on this very forum last season, that TB has the ability to progress to that level. He’s one scary talent.
Just out of curiosity, even though it won’t happen (Mr Johnson would be mad if he did), how much weight would Tidal Bay receive from Denman if he ran in the Hennessy?
I think Denman is rated 182, and Tidal Bay 166, so you’re looking at 16lbs, assuming no adjustments between now and then.
Thanks, Grass.
Tidal Bay looks like he’ll be a better horse over two miles-four, so I’d target him at the Old Roan chase for his seasonal debut.
Depending on his effort that day, Howard Johnson will probabaly know what direction his horse will take for the season.
Should I be setting up Cheltenham ’09 area? You jumps boys are keen.
Wee bit early for that, Corm, I would have thought.
Set it up tomorrow.
Well the weather is certainly autumnal – surely it can’t be long now!!
Should I be setting up Cheltenham ’09 area? You jumps boys are keen.
The membership pack popped through the door weeks ago, so I reckon you’re a bit slow off the mark, Corm ..
Should I be setting up Cheltenham ’09 area? You jumps boys are keen.
Think you should, I’m starting to get interested again when I see the likes of this
Thanks, Grass.
Tidal Bay looks like he’ll be a better horse over two miles-four, so I’d target him at the Old Roan chase for his seasonal debut.
Depending on his effort that day, Howard Johnson will probabaly know what direction his horse will take for the season.
We know he’s a brilliant 2 miler so why would they start messing about in distance without testing the water against MM first?
I think Howard would want to know and he will be out to take on MM asap.
It would be really stupid not to at least try.Master Minded has the potential of being the best horse seen on a racecourse since you know who. Albeit over 2 miles.
The fact remains he was stuffed at Aintree wheras Tidal Bay was brilliant.
If they take on MM early and are beaten then they know exactly where they stand and then and only then I would expect him to be stepped up in distance. Much depends on the owner I suppose but they were contemplating taking him on at Aintree and never. I don’t think they will make that mistake again.
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