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Agree with the above comment, George Washington needs reasonably fast ground to be seen at his best can’t have him now.
Ground is right now for Proclamation.
I don’t think they want to do that though really.. Mad American fanfare will send him bonkers
I think george will probably get pulled out, why would they risk him. The qe2 is not the be all and end all of racing and the breeders cup mile (you would hope) may be better conditions in kentucky this year.
O’brien actually has quite a good record in recent years with highly strung horses in america. Antonius Pius in the breeders cup mile and powerscourt in the arlington million, both very highly strung and both excelled in america.
In georges potential absence im stuck between librettist and araafa.
I would think if the ground could dry to good to soft they would run him. His chance is pretty much gone though in my opinion.
(Edited by Aidan at 5:27 pm on Sep. 22, 2006)
Quote: from Maxilon 5 on 12:13 am on Sep. 20, 2006[br]At 8/1, Proclamation is a dark horse. A Sussex winner and highly thought of. Genuine Group1 quality. Whether it’s ready or not for Saturday, who knows.<br>
I agree absolutely and took some 8 earlier in the week. I thought that price was wrong and I have heard some very good reports about the horse as well. Now the rains have come it looks even better value – he will love it and George will be very much inconvenienced by the softer ground.
I can’t choose between Araafa, Librettist, & Proclamation who all have form on ground with cut in it so the race is looking like a no-bet for me now.
I hope this is correct, but Godolphin have had 17 individual first time out winners this season. They get them fit and 13/2 is good value for Proclamation, I think. Might be the time to catch him. And arguably, having Kerrin McEvoy on his back is a positive.
The key to the race may be Jeremy Noseda; I’ll be interested to reads his comments tomorrow.
Quote: from EC on 10:20 pm on Sep. 22, 2006[br]I’m probably wrong..but Librettist looks home and hosed to me.
GW should not be backed on this ground imho..is the short straight not in his favour as well..niggles.
Proclamation would have Dettori on if up for this imho
Court Masterpiece..will need an extremely fast pace, won’t get it on this ground…even with the suited pace..isn’t good enough
I think Araafa is the only danger..but I can see Dettori tracking the pacemaker and leaving them behind into the short straight. Librettist is at peak form ..can see Frankie leaping off in the winners enclosure already ;)
<br>Before anyone starts assuming George wont handle it, I cant imagine that the ground tomorrow will be anything like the Curragh was the day he was beaten but I admit I would still be afraid to back him. I always assumed Dettori would go for librettist but i think Proclamation will finish in front of him
(Edited by SirHarryLewis at 11:45 pm on Sep. 22, 2006)
SHL
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Court Masterpiece for me.<br>Started off last season as a handicapper, and has been improving ever since, culminating in his trouncing of 3 other gp1 winners in the Sussex. <br>The form of that race is dismissed by many because of the strong pace, but the fact remains that he was well on top at the end, which suggests, along with much of his other recent form, that this stiffer test will suit him even more.<br>The only concern would be the jockey, who gets it wrong as often as he gets it right in the better races.
I can see George Washington drifting to a very big price this morning and if it hits 3/1 i’ll ave to take some. The horse I like otherwise is Proclaimation though it will be a struggle to get any sort of price now.
Proclamation’s form on ground with give in it entitles him to be trading around 10/3. Anything bigger is a bet.
An interesting race and a fascinating conundrum.
GW is now 3/1 but he has it all to prove IMO. His Guineas win was impressive and his ability is not in doubt. However, things haven’t gone right for him since, he has temperament difficulties, seems much less effective on softer ground and, regardless of those negatives, may not now be as good, following injury,  as he was on Guineas day in any case. There was a suggestion made in the RP that GW could be ‘just another very good horse on a quick surface’ and I fear that may be true, although to be fair to him there’s no disgrace in that.
Court Masterpiece I can’t have. Not quite good enough IMO. The defeat of Soviet Song flattered him I think (race ran to suit and up against a horse who is perhaps not quite the light of previous years and no superstar in any case) and he is better judged on his long previous history, none of which indicates that he is a genuine Gr 1 performer.
Araafa is of interest but you really have to be in a charitable mood to forgive and forget his last run. Connections reported him as having an ‘off-day’, which isn’t what you want to hear really. That said his St.James’s Palace Stakes win gives him a major chance with Librettist on a line through Stormy River and he has shown he likes the ground. Not one to eagerly dismiss but backing horses on the back of a poor run like his last one is one quick route, among many, to skid row.
Proclamation is one I respect. His Sussex Stakes win last term gives him a major chance and subsequent efforts in the Haydock sprint (clearly unsuited by the hustle and bustle of that) and a lacklustre seasonal reappearance (back in June) are more easily overlooked than GW or Araafa’s disappointments. I still have doubts, however, about how good he actually is and he still has it to prove at this level for me.
The bet for me then, and a big one at that, is Librettist. Here, at 5/2 :o you have a horse who has two well contested Group 1 wins under his belt on his last two runs. He has only been beaten once in eight runs, when finishing just behind Oratorio when racing up the middle and finishing 5th in Shamrdal’s Dewhurst. HIS ONLY DEFEAT. He’s looked progressive, enjoys cut, is in top form, top jockey on board, big questions about each of his four major rivals here and is worthy, IMO, of the major punt I’ll be having in thirty seconds time.
They’re saying he has a 28% chance of winning. I make it over 35% and, for me, he’s a 7/4 shot and crying out to be backed at current price.
Nicely summarised Corm :)
tend to agree with most of that but cant quite get Araafa’s Ascot win out of my head. Apart from GW’s guineas that was the most impressive ive seen this year over a mile
Ill forgive that last run (although thats a rule of mine im breaking)
Times are quick the ground certainly isn’t soft.
Back to George Washington now, sit back watch him go. ;)
Quote: from EC on 4:02 pm on Sep. 23, 2006[br]I said I wouldn’t bet GW ..but..intuition is a niggling again MM..something special is going to happen I reckon. :cool:
fingers Xed
<br>Bloody hope so lol.
With the ground as it is I’ve just backed George Washington. I’m expecting to see the real deal now.
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