Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe 2009

[towerto]

stacelita backers must be worried now after tamazirte performance

[RedRiot]

stacelita backers must be worried now after tamazirte performance

Stacelita won eased down and pissed on the entire field, the worrying thing is Rouget not being on form.

If Fame And Glory can keep on improving he will be very hard to beat, Vision D’Etat will surely not stay a fast run 1m4f, but Conduit is the one who will be a huge danger.

Its between Conduit and Fame And Glory for me so far.

[towerto]

yes agree jean claude rouget isnt in good form ,
and agree that the 2 horse are conduit and fag
but well learn more after the trials

[BeeforsalmonJNCC]

This has to be 1 of the worst years for French 3 year olds in the last few years.

all fame has to do is show up it seems to me

[Stacelita]

Fame and Glory no doubt is a very good horse and i would already rate him ahead of Conduit but believe me just showing up won’t win him the arc. He has stamina in abundance but i would doubt his real turn of foot when he will be up against top class opposition.
Even if Rouget is not on form and his horses are getting beat like Bell’s i have more belief in Stacelita than Sariska. I’ll tell you why:
1 – Has a high cruising speed crucial in a race like the Arc.
2 – Has the speed to win the guineas or a 7f group 1. ( Fame and Glory, Sariska and Conduit don’t.)
3 – Stamina shoudn’t be an issue with a sire like Monsun ans sometimes an extra furlong or 2 makes a world of difference to horses.
4 – Has a good temperament has taken every race in her stride so far and done it very naturally.
5 – Has shown very good speed on good ground when her trainer says "shes in her element when the going is soft and nigh on unbeatable"
This shows her versatility and shows shes no 1 trick pony.
6 – She’s unexposed whereas the others have been beaten.

[Zarkava]

2 – Has the speed to win the guineas or a 7f group 1. ( Fame and Glory, Sariska and Conduit don’t.)

[moehat]

No matter how poor they seem to be I tend to side with the French horses in this; they tend to be a good price because they are ignored by the bookies over here but have been aimed specifically at the race [had a nice win with Bago one year when he seemed seriously out of form]. May have a small ew on Vision D’Etat.

[MDeering]

Same thinking here Moe. I haven’t made too many predictions on this thread because I’m waiting for the Longchamp trials, namely the Prix Niel.

[thehorsesmouth]

Vision D’Etat has a great chance on form aswell. 5th last year, and I think he has improved alot from last year. He won the Ganay with ease, and in the Prince of Wales he looked beaten, but there was plenty in the tank at the finish imo. Peslier put him so asleep that he couldn’t waken the horse up again, but when he got going he made up the ground fairly readily. The thing about this horse is that he idles when he hits the front, the Ganay being a prime example of this. He doesn’t mind cut in the ground, and with his relaxed style of racing he should get the trip. He is overpriced @ 12/1

[Zarkava]

My worry about him is that he’ll be running in the Foy. It’s tough for older horses to win it at the best of times but the Foy is just about the worst trial for any race I can think of. It’s even worse than the Chester Vase for the Derby. The 3 older winners in the past 16 years, Dylan Thomas, Marienbard and Sakhee came via the Irish Champion, Großer Preis von Baden and Juddmonte International respectively.

[thehorsesmouth]

So if Dylan Thomas had run in the Foy instead of the Irish Champion Stakes he wouldn’t have won the Arc? Or if Sea The Stars had run in the Chester Vase he wouldn’t have won the Derby? I know what you’re saying, historically the Foy winner has a poor record in the Arc, but stats are there to be changed.

[Zarkava]

But if you keep rolling with history until you lose, you’ll win.

[Gerald]

I’m fairly sure that we all agree that not all stats should be treated the same.

Looking at it logically, if horses from the Prix Niel and Vermeille can go on to win the Arc, then so can horses from the Prix Foy.

Edit: None of Marienbard, Dylan Thomas or Sakhee were French-trained, so it is not too surprising that they didn’t run in the Prix Foy.

If a French older horse were to win the Arc, then there is a fair chance that he will have prepped in the Foy

[thehorsesmouth]

Let’s just say Vision D’Etat wins the Foy. He won’t know that Foy winners are supposed to have a bad record in the Arc. He’ll hopefully run his usual good race, and maybe it won’t be good enough, but that won’t be because he won the Foy. History is history.

[Zarkava]

Could just be that a 1m 4f test so close to the Arc is too much for the older horses to manage before giving away so much weight to the younger horses.

[Gerald]

I’m not too convinced by that.

I’m not too hot on this. The best 3yo French colts all retire to stud, or become injured?

edit: Need to account for Bago and Hurricane Run coming 3rd when defending. Don’t know too much about that period, as I didn’t have a TV.

[Zarkava]

Hurricane Run came 4th. Just the drugs test that eliminated Deep Impact from 3rd. He ran in the Foy. Bago I think went from the King George straight to the Arc? Going off memory.

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