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He’s been able to acquit himself well on Polytrack twice and the St Leger. He wouldn’t be afraid to walk past a garden hose that is for sure.
Spanish Moon for the Japan Cup, anyone?
Channon is saying Youmzain is bouncing at home and ready to run a big race. Just seen him 16/1 with Coral to finish 2nd again, i’ve seen worse bets thats for sure. You just cannot get away from him from what he,s achieved in the race coming in with a similar profile.
Bookies price the race on form but I’d be shocked if an older horse beat him Conduit probably the most dangerous of the older horses. However with a bit of rain the guarenteed good gallop his turn of foot is underrated and he looks primed with Fallon on board to find one too good again!Sea Stars runs… Sea The Stars wins ! If not, Cavalryman e.w.
Sorry, but I wouldn’t have a charity bet on Youmzain.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Getaway is a huge danger.
I’ll have something on him e/w.
Just wanted to say sometimes we punters need to think out of the box meaning go against the obvious because 90+ percent of the time the thinking we currently use means the bookmaker takes our money.
I am currently working on this because the tipping thread I started doesn’t seem to be doing well simply because we punters, well the majority of us seem to underestimate certain horses and all the other variables that are involved in determining the out come of a horse race.
Another criminal mistake we make is we overestimate horses even though evidence tells us its unlikely to happen, but we refuse to take off our rose-tinted glasses and duly give more of our hard earned money to the bookmaker.
Nothing against you Snoopy go ahead with your bet, but after a lot of studying had to get this out.
stacellita u say satcellita is a much better horse on very soft ground as is my favourite filly sariska. i think sariska would beat stacellita in the arc in a match bet purely on the basis ure filly does not stay the trip . im not doubting that she looks impressive at a mile and a qauter but sariska will have a chance of winning the arc on heavy were as stacellita would have 0 chance on good ground or heavy
stacellita u say satcellita is a much better horse on very soft ground as is my favourite filly sariska. i think sariska would beat stacellita in the arc in a match bet purely on the basis ure filly does not stay the trip . im not doubting that she looks impressive at a mile and a qauter but sariska will have a chance of winning the arc on heavy were as stacellita would have 0 chance on good ground or heavy
If you look at the Vermeille again you will see at the start Stacelita uses up far too much energy in the 1st couple of furlongs passing most of the field to get to her customary position (from a poor draw) and then 2 furlongs from the finish is the first one to go for home. For any horse to do this and inevitably get tired in the final furlong and only go down by a Short neck coming back from a layoff takes great athletism and talent (On ground she ismore than a stone worse off). This explains why we might think she didn’t stay.
Dar re mi from a perfect draw bounces out almost too well and Fortune is able to position her perfectly save up energy and come and collar Stacelita.As far the form of the race is concerned compared to the Arc it is fair, therefore Dar re mi has to step up which I don’t think she is capable of doing.
Stacelita is still improving and will be up to 25% better come the Arc even on similar ground. If the ground is Good to soft or worse then I would say you can safely increase that percentage, just hoping for a low draw which suits her racing style because she’s not a hold up horse.Just wanted to say sometimes we punters need to think out of the box
the majority of us seem to underestimate certain horses and all the other variables that are involved in determining the out come of a horse race.
Another criminal mistake we make is we overestimate horses even though evidence tells us its unlikely to happen, but we refuse to take off our rose-tinted glasses and duly give more of our hard earned money to the bookmaker.
I have no rose-tinted glasses, I have little knowledge of the European races granted, so I speak from what my research and eyes tell me.
Now I posted earlier that STS was a good thing. That was based on what I had seen to that point. I also said he had the measure of FAG before they last met even though FAG was also highly thought of.
Sometimes a horse just leaps out from nowhere, starts performing better that ever for no apparent reason. Getaway.
I also like Spanish Moon, Schiaparelli or Eastern Anthem if he were to repeat his Dubai form – none likely to run.
STS was a good winner last start but I saw a horse that had every favor and was under slight duress at the finish line.
If the Arc was 10f then he would be unbeatable IMO, but based on his last run the 12f of the Arc and with pressure sure to be on all the way heMAY
be vulnerable.
I could not happily put my money on STS at his very short quote knowing there is a touch of doubt.
Before his last win I had no such doubt and it may just have been he needed the hit-out.
Nevertheless doubt is there now.
Having said that it would be no surprise to see him win easily (if the hit-out was needed and he benefits from it).- Total Posts 17716
Imo. Sea The Stars will have no problem at all staying the Arc distance. Though the Derby wasn’t the quickest ever run, he certainly didn’t appear to be anywhere near the end of his tether – in fact he was picking up at the end, as he also was in some pretty stiff 10f tests this season.
Whether that makes him a good thing is a moot point; I certainly wouldn’t take his Eclipse defeat of Conduit literally and, that run apart, he remains unproven against the kind of top class older horse he’s likely to meet in a normal Arc.
Intriguing race, by the end of which we may know he’s a real superstar but, if he doesn’t win, I’d be reluctant to put defeat solely down to the distance.one point that is very much in favour of sts is that longchamp isnt a stiff track and he will stay without problems , if the arc was running at the curragh i would say he possibly wont stay because this irish track really test stamina of horses
I would love the ground to come up soft because as a betting proposition that would make it very interesting. If the ground was good or faster then STS would be tough to beat and there would be no value for punters considering a number of horses are closely matched on that type of ground and one could quite easily beat STS, it has happened before. If it did happen the bookies would win again.
However if the ground was soft or good to soft (soft in places) with visible cut from previous races then IMO 4 horses would seriously enter calculations. Even if STS did run in this scenario I wouldn’t mind because I believe he would get beat. The 4 horses would be Conduit, Sariska, Stacelita and Youmzain. Different F/C combinations could result in a serious profit. Lets hope for a bit of rainI would love the ground to come up soft because as a betting proposition that would make it very interesting. If the ground was good or faster then STS would be tough to beat and there would be no value for punters considering a number of horses are closely matched on that type of ground and one could quite easily beat STS, it has happened before. If it did happen the bookies would win again.
However if the ground was soft or good to soft (soft in places) with visible cut from previous races then IMO 4 horses would seriously enter calculations. Even if STS did run in this scenario I wouldn’t mind because I believe he would get beat. The 4 horses would be Conduit, Sariska, Stacelita and Youmzain. Different F/C combinations could result in a serious profit. Lets hope for a bit of rainIt would appear that g/s, or even softer, would hold no fears for STS on his last performance. Some would say his best showing to date has come with plenty of cut, and I wouldn’t argue with that.
- Total Posts 17716
It’s not just a case of whether he will go on soft ground or not. The Arc, in case you and the rest of the would be experts on here who think this will be a walk in the park, is 1m4f and I’ve never seen a slow one yet.
Sea the Stars is without doubt the best 3 year old in training but his wins have all come on good ground over 1m2f apart from his last run good to yeilding and the slowest Derby in the history of man.
1m4f on soft if it turns out that way is a completely different world. No matter how difficult it is to imagine Sea the Stars being beaten there’s a very good chance he will be.
Generally speaking horses who excel up to certain distances do so because it’s perfect for their make up. Put the same horse over a longer trip with different conditions and he can become less than ordinary very quickly. Sea the Stars showed great speed in the Guineas and has shown the same speed over 1m2f on several occasions now. That speed could be the chink in his armour………by that I mean the faster they are the less likly they will stay
Add 2f, softer ground, strong gallop to test his stamina and it’s perectly feasible he’ll get stuffed.
Think not? e.g. Master Minded……no way on earth was he going to get beat at Aintree….Top rated steeplechaser in the world, easy track, 2/5 fav, defeat out of the question.;;;;The form was turned round by a massive 37 lengths due to the fact the speedster never stayed.
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