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I don’t have too much of an opinion about who will win the Arc, but you have to remember Stacelita that these Johnny Foreigners are sneaky chappies, and that Vision d’Etat’s whole season has been based upon competing in the Arc.
Apart from coming 5th in last year’s Arc and 3rd in his seasonal debut, he has won everything else. Winning the Prix Ganay and the Prince of Wales seems like laying down quite a useful marker.
One thing I have been amazed about is that Oxx has been able to get away with not saying that Sea The Stars’ main target after the Derby is the Arc, and perhaps it actually not being either.
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Vision D’Etat’s biggest problem will be getting the trip in this class ad that’s the killer him and possibly Sea the Stars. Alhough both have won over the trip Vision D’Etat’s call saw him through by the skin of his teeeth in a fairly moderate Group and Sea the Stars won the 7f Derby as it is now known.
Vision D’Etat will run ecause he has very little to lose but why would John Oxx put Sea the Stars reputation on the line when really he doesn’t have to. If he retired him now no one could say he wasn’t the best around. He’s beat them all and if Fame and Glory wins the Arc all it will do is boost Sea the Stars rep further, whereas if he ran him and Fame and Glory beat him then it would do the exact opposite……..damn sure I wouldn’t run Sea the Stars for all the tea in china……take the money and run is his best policy
edit: Need to account for Bago and Hurricane Run coming 3rd when defending. Don’t know too much about that period, as I didn’t have a TV.
The King George bottomed HR out. Bago ran well in his defence and would have been second with a better ride (he went the Sulamani, White Muzzle route round the outside)
Thanks Euro.
Actually, I saw Hurricane Run’s defeat in the Arc to Rail Link, as I watched it on the TV at work, at the Dover Immigration Removal Centre.
His defeat seems to have been well advertised, with the narrow win in the KG, which Fabre admitted he was uncomfortable accommodating into the programme, and the narrow defeat in the Foy.
If Vision d’Etat wins well in the Foy there will of course be the cries that he didn’t beat anything. I think he’d still be worth an interest in the Arc, even just as a saver, although he might end up an uncomfortable short price. Sorry, that all sounds a bit too much like fencesitting, but that’s what happens when you try to be reasonable.
Hi All
I will disclose that I have little knowledge of most of the runners in the Arc.
I have watched the main lead-up races and have a sharp eye for the best of the breed and when the form is undeniable.
At this point in time if each horse was to hold there best form the result would be very close but the bookies favorite is not my choice.
Sea the Stars has impressed me the most. Looking at the races he has been in and weighing up the pace, his settling position and the results, he surely is the horse to beat. His turn of foot is akin to a smart horse in maiden class, yet he is racing against the best opposition of his year.
Stacelita is the main danger and while her opposition might not have been as demanding there is no question of her outstanding ability. A win would not surprise. Stacelita reminds me of the champion Australian (New Zealand) mare "Sunline".
Fame and Glory put paid to his rivals in emphatic fashion last start but the fashion in which the race was run has me doubting the merit of his performance. If I were a bookmaker then I would take the risk against Fame and Glory winning.
Outside of these three (in my mind the top two) it is hard to see another runner being able to bridge the gap. While I admit to being a Schiaparelli fan ( his current form first class) I doubt he could hold the brilliant finishing burst of the mile and a half champs.
Just an outside look in from an Aussie enthusiast.
I am praying that Sea The Stars turns up now! I backed Stacelita each way months ago, thinking STS won’t run, but it seems they are interested now. I don’t care about my bet now I just want to see this superstar in the flesh as I am going to Longchamp. Please please turn up and let’s have good ground!
Sea the Stars thumped Fame and Glory in the Irish champion.
He looks a sure thing in the Arc unless he comes to trouble.
Agreed. As long as it’s no worse than Good to Soft then think STS will hack up and prove once again what a superstar he is
If he’s declared a certain runner, then may have to make the trip myself…
Sea the Stars thumped Fame and Glory in the Irish champion.
He looks a sure thing in the Arc unless he comes to trouble.
Smearing egg all over my face, but I take back the "sure thing".
After watching STS Derby over a few times, he had the run of the race and RVW was closing while having to go around other runners. The win was good but the race could not have been run more to the liking of STS.
I also noticed STS pull his head to the right in the last 50 metres – like a horse at the end of his run. The only question being was his fitness the cause (second run this campaign) or was it his stamina. The latter must put some doubt on his ability to Sea the Arc…out.
The Arc is sure to be run at a genuine pace so any chinks in his stamina will be exposed.
It makes for a fascinating race.
sea the stars isnt a "cert" in the arc
there will be at least 16 runners this year , and the draw is extremely important in this racetrack , remember authorized was a cert before finishing last
remember how zarkava get boxed last year .edit: Niel & Foy, not Vermeille
Might as well lump all three together, instead of having separate threads.
The only thing I’ve got to say is that I’m a bit concerned about the noise coming out of the Vision d’Etat camp that it is just a prep race, and they don’t want to get into a big battle with Spanish Moon – or words to that effect.
However, it is also a trial for Spanish Moon as well, so he ought not to be fully wound up either.
Surely to be considered seriously on the first Sunday in October, VdE needs to comfortably win this by 1.5-2 lengths?
edit: Apologies Marble – I’ve only just noticed that there is a Vermeille Thread, I’ll try to remove it from the title.
That seems to be a successful lay, so long as the Stewards’s don’t get involved again.
(Haven’t seen the race, just watched the price movements on betfair.)No wonder Oxx wants to race in the Arc now, there is no contenders to pose a serious threat it looks, even on soft he will win this, although Spanish Moon is still massive value who I said was a good bet a few month ago and was trading at a massive price on the exchanges before today, he put Vision D’Etat in his place today and I’m pretty sure he should have Kieren Fallon on board as I would expect Moore to take the ride on Conduit, Stoute is well handed in this with 3 runners it looks like but Oxx wont be scared of any of them.
Spanish Moon for a place looks a very good bet.
Happy with Beheshtam. Was reining in Cavalryman nearing the line and considering Lemaire waited patiently to drop the handbrake whilst Dettori had taken off already entering the straight, this was a well-planned tuning up session for the big dance next month.
None of today’s results will strike new fear in the minds of the Killabeg crew. Pretty much their race to lose.
Prefer if STS bypassed the Arc from a punting perspective – gives us some work to do!
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