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Pts Betting – What's the Point of it?

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  • #12466
    sberry
    Member
    • Total Posts 1800

    I’m just wondering, what is everybody’s view of what a point is when betting to points?

    For example, we see paper tipsters and the like recommending 1pt e/w or 2pts win, etc, but we never see an explanation of what this equates too.

    I too mainly operate on a points system and with me a point is 2% of the betting balance and bets are rarely at or above 5 points – I expect criticism to come for risking 10% of a betting balance here, I don’t mind.

    But I was just wondering what other views are, do people consider points fixed or moveable as percentages of a ring-fenced betting bank – what is a point to you or are they pointless and should all bets be fluid according to the day?

    #245374
    cormack15
    Keymaster
    • Total Posts 8992

    The point of points is that you can equate them to any size betting bank. So, I could advise bets on a scale of 1 to 5 points. For me that might be £10 to £50 but for a man like yourself SB it might be £100 to £500.

    #245377
    douginho
    Member
    • Total Posts 1046

    I think website tipsters and paper tipsters use points as a way of expressing how much they fancy a certain horse. It sounds more confident to say 5 points win than 1 point win. Thats how I view it anyway.

    Its not something I personally use – I do same stake on every selection as I find by using a point system I will put more on the losers and less on the winners!

    #245380
    Goldikova
    Member
    • Total Posts 1537

    Yeah i’m the same as Doug. The more points the more the confidence on a selection in terms of putting more money on it.

    #245387
    sberry
    Member
    • Total Posts 1800

    Yes, the more points = the more confidence but what is a point to you expressed as a percentage of your betting balance, or do you not have a betting bank and just punt whatever you fancy according to what’s in the wallet at the time?

    For me, a point is 1/50th of the betting bank – too much or too little?

    #245390
    Goldikova
    Member
    • Total Posts 1537

    I’m a random punter.

    #245419
    chalk jockey
    Participant
    • Total Posts 252

    1/50 is about right for me,I would think people who back the short priced good things might find that a bit conservitive.You have to stake what suits you.

    If you go to back a certainty always buy a return ticket.

    #245420
    dave jay
    Member
    • Total Posts 3386

    Points betting in itself is meaningless unless you know what percentage of the bank a point is. A point should be generally about 0.1% of the total bank, for it to mean anything, a 1000 point bank would be about right, if you want such a thing.

    I tend not to stake more than 1% of my bank on any one selection .. so your 1/50th is probably too big, imo.

    Tipsters generally need an infinite bank for obvious reasons .. :D

    #245469
    carvillshill
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2778

    It removes the vulgarity of talking about money, which comes across as arrogance if you’re not careful. My level stake tends to ebb and flow with my level of confidence (it’s fairly conservative at the moment!) and I’m not highly conscious of the percentage of a betting bank which is for me a notional thing, consisting of accumulated winnings over the years. That’s not to say that my betting cash isn’t separate, it is, but not everything I’ve made in the past ten years is sitting waiting for a bad run- it would never get to that.
    I’m consciously trying to increase my level stake over the years as the exes remain constant enough and if you are confident of winning, within reason the more you stake the better, as long as this doesn’t affect your psyche too much.

    btw Fist’s thread is a classic example of the opposite of what to do in a losing run- cut down on bet size and frequency until you feel your mojo returning!

    #245474
    Cav
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4825

    1000 point bank for me. Level stakes, the same amount on every bet regardless of price. Mid September to mid November last year was sticky so will wait to see how that goes this year before considering an increased stake.

    #245502
    Drone
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5620

    It removes the vulgarity of talking about money, which comes across as arrogance

    I’m consciously trying to increase my level stake over the years as the exes remain constant enough and if you are confident of winning, within reason the more you stake the better, as long as this doesn’t affect your psyche too much.!

    1000 point bank for me. Level stakes, the same amount on every bet regardless of price.

    Spot on gents

    1 pt equals roughly 2.5% of a betting bank set on January 1st each year, which continues to grow slowly i.e the 1pt level stake is set for a year and has increased (conservatively) each New Year. Though in truth I’ve reached a level that’s nearing the limit of my ‘comfort zone’ so will likely leave it as it is now

    ’tis only a hobby; punting isn’t required to put bread on the table

    Also think it’s important to reward yourself with a ‘treat’ rather than hoard all profit for the bank-busting rainy-day. Though that spectre will always cast a penumbral shadow

    #245513
    douginho
    Member
    • Total Posts 1046

    I dont work with a betting bank. I work with what I have really. If whats in my online account runs dry I will generally add more, usually £11 at a time. I do not keep detailed records either. However, i have very limited funds so my bets tend to be 10p unit multiples. I would feel uncomfortable betting £100 on one selection, even if I had more money. Maybe that would change when I had more money!

    #246024
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 29189

    Aren’t we talking about staking plans here?

    Agree with Carv, staking in £’s just looks arrogant. There is no way of knowing if the writer is telling the truth anyway. Besides, it is surely only relevant to the reader if he or she can put the stakes in to a level he / she is comfortable with.

    Points can mean any amount the reader wants it to mean. That is the beauty of points. 10 points in a staking plan of 1 to 10, means a far greater stake; than 1000 points in a plan from 250 to 5000 points. (Though in the latter case, there is little point to as many noughts in the plan, 250 to 5000 means the same as 25 to 500, or 2.5 to 50 or 0.25 to 5 points).

    Each to his own and all that, but this is how and why I bet:
    I do not like betting banks as such. Say I get off to a good start during a year’s betting, within a month I have increased my “bank” from £20,000 to £27,000. The probability of any horse winning has not changed, so why should I change stake? Although it would allow me to increase profits easier; it will also enable me to loose that £7000 profit more easily. It is highly likely any punter (whether a bad or good judge) will at some point during a year, go through a losing run. Betting a certain percentage of bank could lose a lot of hard earned profit. If I do increase stakes it is after a sustained spell of profit; not month by month, day by day or bet by bet.

    Although I do use points:
    In my opinion stakes should be related to probability of winning, and how much value is involved. My preferred staking plan is directly linked to the percentage chance I believe each horse has of winning.

    Something I think is a true even money (50%) chance, has 50 points on at the best price available (at the best available price above evens). Anything I believe is a true 3/1 (25%) chance, has 25 points (at above 3/1); a true 9/1 (10%) 10 points (above 9/1) etc. In my opinion, something I believe has double the chance of another (50% compared to 25%), should have double the stake. Five times the chance (comparing 50% to 10%), five times the stake etc.

    With the stake on all horses considered 50% chances being the same, whether it is on a 5/4 or 6/4 shot; the more value there is in a bet, the more money is won. 50 @ 5/4 wins 62.4 points, 50 @ 6/4 wins 75 points etc.

    Obviously, an outsider has less chance of winning, therefore less money is staked on an outsider. But with less risk (money staked) involved, should mean more profit made if it wins. Which is the case here: 50 points @ 5/4 wins 62.4 points profit; 25 points @ 7/2 wins 87.5 profit; 10 points @ 11/1 wins 110 points profit.

    How much I personally bet is irrelevant. Any punter who’s usual bet on an even money chance is £5000 may consider betting £100 a point. With £2500 on a 25% chance and £1000 on a 10% chance. Someone used to putting £50 on at evens, may consider £1 a point. £5 at evens, 10p per point. Though it may be difficult to get a bet on for 10p @ 200/1.

    Would like to know what other punters think of this way of staking.

    Have tried betting level stakes, but found it did not matter much at all if the short priced winners won or lost. Because I won so little when they won. Everything depended on outsiders.
    Then tried betting to win the same amount, but it mattered too much if the short priced horses lost, so much stake (losses) being on them. Yet mattered less if the outsiders won or lost, with too small stakes.
    This year, because I have backed quite a few winning outsiders, it would probably have paid me to bet level stakes. But that is probably a coincidence and don’t want to rely on outsiders winning.

    Value Is Everything
    #246052
    sberry
    Member
    • Total Posts 1800

    I was waiting for your answer Ginge and it was close to what I expected, looks like it makes perfect mathematical sense but it’s far too complicated for me.

    Drone is the closest to me, start the year with a betting bank, I bet to points from 0.5pts e/w up to usually a max of 5, ever so rarely 6 or 7 and I do point bet with multiples such as trixies, patents, cross doubles, etc, occasionally (it’s not always been this way though and many the time discipine has let me down).

    I consider racing a hobby and like other hobbies such as watching your football team, playing golf or going to the theatre, it should cost money so each month I’ll put some money in the bank, the difference between my hobby and the others mentioned is that you don’t get anything back once you’ve paid for the other hobbies, my betting bank buys me presents and pays for my bar bills – that’s the other key point from Drone’s response I agree with – treat yourself with wins, if my bank goes significantly over set comfort limits the excess comes out.

    Interesting responses, as we all know there is more than one way to skin a dog and part of the interest and reward from racing as a hobby is formulating your own strategy and refining it as you go along – I can’t imagine we’ll ever get it perfect or say it can’t be refined any more.

    Any other thoughts on points betting or strategies to relieve the bookies or other exchange punters of the folding stuff?

    #246062
    carvillshill
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2778

    AP had a way of thinking about bets on short-priced horses and longshots that made perfect sense to me and continues to do so. He reckoned (I think in Against The Crowd) that when he looked back over the year the short-odds bets paid for his bets on outsiders, but the outsider bets made the real profits even if the strike-rate was low. That’s how it works when you bet to level stakes or nearly so and that seems more mathematically sound than what I would consider overstaking on short-odds bets. There’s far less margin for error in assessing value at short odds so it makes sense not to increase stakes on those bets. When I look back on a year’s punting it’s the winners at 14/1+ that leap things forward, the 2/1 shots just keep things ticking over.

    #246064
    Cav
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4825

    AP had a way of thinking about bets on short-priced horses and longshots that made perfect sense to me and continues to do so. He reckoned (I think in Against The Crowd) that when he looked back over the year the short-odds bets paid for his bets on outsiders, but the outsider bets made the real profits even if the strike-rate was low. That’s how it works when you bet to level stakes or nearly so and that seems more mathematically sound than what I would consider overstaking on short-odds bets. There’s far less margin for error in assessing value at short odds so it makes sense not to increase stakes on those bets. When I look back on a year’s punting it’s the winners at 14/1+ that leap things forward, the 2/1 shots just keep things ticking over

    .

    That’s been my experience as well. 75% of my bets are 10/1 and less and I lose marginally on them. Their sole function is to regularise the strike rate and maintain turnover. If I stuck to the 10/1+ bets I’d be more profitable but my strike rate would drop to a little over 7% which would have big psychological implications as well as having a hugely negative impact on my turnover and thus commission payments to BF. I see short price bets as nothing more than a keeping me happy tax, a very necessary evil, if you will.

    #246072
    apracing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3327

    Carvills,

    Although my entire approach has changed since I wrote that, in that I now concentrate on short priced horses and either back or lay on BF, more than half my final profit last winter came from a single bet on Big Bucks at Cheltenham. OK, it wasn’t over 10/1, but it was still a much bigger price than I was normally playing.

    My sister asked why I didn’t just wait for Big Bucks (or it’s equivalent) and leave out the other bets. That appears to make sense, but I reckon a punter needs to be ‘in the game’ and playing reasonably regularly, otherwise he simply isn’t going to be able to spot the big bet when it comes along. It’s the information and background that you absorb through the day to day betting that is needed to make the analysis for the big bet.

    Trying to find the longshots and nothing else would be like concentrating on the exams without attending any of the classes along the way – a policy I tried at university and which got me ejected after two terms!

    AP

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