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You read my mind, Martin; even the switch to Chris Gordon isn’t a negative. Exeter should play to his strengths and Twist Magic lets him in to the race on a very handy weight.
I suppose there’s a couple of ways of looking at the move to Chris and Jenny Gordon specifically.
On the one hand, a change of scenery may well have amused what could be something of a character significantly enough for him to give of his best first time up at least.
On the other hand, I think I’m right in saying the Gordons haven’t had anything quite as good as either this animal under their tutelage before (only King Edmund, whom they’ve had longer, really comes close); and whilst I’m fully conversant with their considerable gifts as trainers of point-to-pointers and lower-grade jumpers, would it be overly harsh to suggest you’d like to have seen more evidence of what they can achieve with a "good ‘un" previously?
If that latter concern doesn’t put you off to any extent (and every breakthrough trainer has to, by definition, break through with some horse eventually, I suppose!), then I’d agree that 25-1 doesn’t do his chances justice. Certainly I’d be happier for him to take his chances in this, in the hope of a well-run race at the trip, than in the Peterborough Chase once again, where I just got half the sense the fences might have been coming at him a bit too quickly.
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
To be fair there isn’t a lot to go on is there really with a lot of NH horses at the hurdling stage? Unless they stick at hurdling then you have lots to go at.
What would be the first port of call? I like Course winners or the LH RH angle as a first call. Going has to be up there as well. Going can already be built in to prices though particularly with pure mudlarks.
Suspect this might be the last season where it could usefully apply, given that he’s getting on in years and hasn’t got any more consistent with time, either; but if we get another wet winter I’m still minded to give KEMPSKI a second glance in any 2m4f soft / heavy-ground Ayr handicap hurdles he may contest unless it becomes clear even those races (current record in them: 11/1/11/-, including three off higher than his current mark of 99, and all to an LSP of +57.5pts) can’t inspire a revival. We’ll see.
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
- Total Posts 17716
Cameroon
(2.00. Don, Sat) has a record over 7f this year of
12113
, the last figure when racing virtually alone against a strong far side pace, at Newmarket.
Given a 3lb turnaround with the winner, and what should turn out a much kinder draw, the general 12/1 could well prove pretty generous.Cameroon
(2.00. Don, Sat) has a record over 7f this year of
12113
, the last figure when racing virtually alone against a strong far side pace, at Newmarket.
Given a 3lb turnaround with the winner, and what should turn out a much kinder draw, the general 12/1 could well prove pretty generous.The only problem here is that Camarooney has never won on worse than Good to Firm. His good to firm record is 4 wins out of 5 runs. He has had a 2nd and 3rd out of 6 starts on Good ground, but no show on 3 starts on good to soft and soft.
As it looks like it will be very soft at Doncaster I couldn’t have this one on it’s ground record.
He was 5th in the Cambridgeshire on soft ground at 100/1. Carnaby Street won the day before that so it’s fair to say there was plenty of soft ground at HQ that weekend
- Total Posts 17716
As tbr indicates, Camerooney ran the race of his life (RPR 96) on soft ground (g/s – time-based) in the Cambridgeshire. Doncaster’s new straight course rarely gets really soft nowadays, anyway.
He is also 2 from 5 on Southwell’s slow surface, and his trainer did remark after his Newcastle win on g/f:"he is just as good on soft ground"
– none of which would put me off.
Great thread guys.
I was close to backing Hercomesthetruth myself but for the presence of Tchicos Polos in the field as I thought (wrongly as it turned out) that the two of them might cut each other’s throats. What did happen though is that he was forced to set a very strong pace (he’s a one-dimensional front-runner) and had probably had enough when he ducked out. He’d still be of interest in slightly lower class right-handed fresh especially in a small field with no obvious front-runner- conditions under which he did me a favour at Down Royal memorably drifting like a barge before making all.4.05 Market Rasen
KERCABELLEC
Market Rasen:
33%
Other Courses: 3%
Slow :
13%
Good Or Faster: 4%
2m4f – 3m:
16%
Other distance: 2%
When meeting the 3 requirements:
1211
Last run can be excused, usually needs first run and it was on unfavourable ground as well.
Taking a chance as not won for a while but today are his ideal conditions.
Like it Slowhand, have had a nibble at 10s.
Can I ask if you discover these horses manually or if you have some kind of software automating the process?KERCABELLEC
0-20 in last 20 runs after a break of more than 28 days. 63 days today. Only in first 3 once in those 20 runs.
KERCABELLEC
0-20 in last 20 runs after a break of more than 28 days. 63 days today. Only in first 3 once in those 20 runs.
An even worse stat is: no of runs since last win 0-25. I think its a matter of what is more important in the form, is it rest days or course or going or distance? I put rest days near the bottom of the list unless they are very short returns or very long returns, the middle section can be coincidental imo.
If I owned the horse I would be expecting a big run today as otherwise there isn’t much point in keeping him in training. He may well have gone at the game but the collision of his 3 best stats looks more than a coincidence.
At 10/1, I’ll take a chance its not coincidence.
Fair enough, Slowhand. Not knocking the method, cherrypicking is ok at 10/1 but I’d still think 1-22 over 28 days is significant. There certainly appears to be a positive bias towards running within a month in this horses profile. The 3 runs at the Rasen 28 days plus were very poor efforts.
Fair enough, Slowhand. Not knocking the method, cherrypicking is ok at 10/1 but I’d still think 1-22 over 28 days is significant. There certainly appears to be a positive bias towards running within a month in this horses profile. The 3 runs at the Rasen 28 days plus were very poor efforts.
i didn’t take it as knocking at all Cavelino, all constructive criticism is welcome imo. I think you could have a point re the month break. If you just look at his form on slow ground and run the month, it backs up your point.
It depends on what weight is put on the interval aspect. To me its one of the less important aspects unless we are looking at extremes, but it might be something someone else sees as a real negative.
Southwell 2.50
Argentine
3,1,4,2,1 racing at Southwell
3,3,4,5,9,9,5,7,8,8 racing on other AW surfacesNot run here since winning in the winter, although the course was riding slow then.
7lbs lower on that last visit and has run well on turf this season, notably behind Mango Music at Ayr off todays OR of 68.
Had to run from a high stall last time out at Wolverhampton over 6f and never got into the race, 6 of his 7 wins have come at 5f and returns to that trip today.
A return to Southwell and 5f forgiving his previous 2 runs on the pollytrack looks well worth it today at
20/1
*
Fair Passion is also 1/1 at the course and always worth following runners at this track, her form looks outstanding recently and though she is posted high in 14 she is still lightly raced for this grade and at
7/1
she looks very fair would have put her favourite personally.
Southwell 1:50
Elusive Warrior
7 furlongs at Southwell all weather, running within 20 days of last run.
7 wins from 15 attempts in these conditions, 47% strike rate. Drawn in trap 2 and pacewise should get to the front early, usually a big advantage at Southwell.
Currently 14/1.
Hi All,
First post here, so go easy on me!
Probably a bit of an obvious one, but Knowhere runs in the 1:15 at Cheltenham and since he started in handicap chases his form after a break of at least 5 weeks reads F0116132P. If you take out his runs in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, where he is obviously outclassed, you get F1132P, which looks pretty good. The pulled up worries me a bit, but that is his only run on anything firmer than good, so I’d be prepared to let him off that one.
9/1 seems a decent price given that now seems the obvious time to back him.
Welcome to the forum Chaos Theory.
I’m always wary of either backing OR opposing Knowhere as I see him as one of those horses I cannot catch right but who I know is liable to run a big race. Backing him off a break could be the answer, good luck with that tomorrow.
(By the way – aren’t you missing a ‘1’ before the ‘3’, shouldn’t there be three ‘1’s?)
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