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Thanks Cormack
Well done David & co who backed Piscean. I haven’t been around all day so missed out.
I think I have spotted one for tomorrow.
GHUFA
5.00 Wolverhampton
The first thing I spotted was his preference for LH tracks.
LH: 846351334286013112512111520
RH: 4353863246Next thing is his track record:
Wolverhampton: 113111
Thats pretty impressive. If you take the view he doesn’t stay 14f then he is 5 from 5 here as the 3rd was over that trip.
Next I looked at his handicap mark. Its now
67
, which is another 2lb drop from his last run at wrong handed Kempton. His winning mark is 70 and since his last win he has been up to 74 which is the highest of his career and looks too high.
He needs a solid pace, which may be slightly questionable. Colonel Sherman likes the front and there is a blinkered first time one in Faith Jicaro who may be tried from the front in first time headgear. Little Richard was prominent last time. So all in all it should be ok.
Everything looks right for a good run, 12/1 showing best odds in the racing post.
Profiling is something personally I have done for as long as I’ve understood racing and accordingly build it into my odds line, but it also goes hand in hand with judgement of runners ability by watching races, speed and form figs etc. Good call on Piscean DJ, priced to 4/1 and no intention of backing elsewhere for me so had a few one-ers on the blue as pre race, also backed him at Kempton at double figs (october has been kind to me
). Think he’s been fortunate to get so many fronters in his latest races but he does seem to love the pollytrack also.Really ‘profiling’ should be part of any sound method but has to go together with form analysis. Le Tordeor for example was a 20’s shot for me, some of those races he won on the AW were awful, he was poorly in against too many yesterday and was never going to lead that field from pillar to post there was just far too much heat on. His last AW win a 4 runner field against 3 hold up horses was Pawan (now rated 67) Hoh Hoh Hoh (now rated 70) and Ivory Silk (now 70 turf, 79 aw). Not digging at your selection reet he was just a good example.
Good luck with Ghufa SH looks to have plenty going for you
Good thread this, and it’s something I realise I use quite alot but have been doing so rather subconciously.
Likewise – not just in the sense of doing of the same, but also in the following of other people doing the same.
I’m always minded to take a second look when one of Mounty’s Spotlights for the
Post
particularly explicitly details the profiling or trend analysis which has underpinned the decision to recommend one particular horse. His plumping for ALDERLUCK in the 2.40 at Kempton this afternoon looks to me like one such example.
"
ALDERLUCK (nap)
, just denied in this race 12 months ago, has a record below pattern level when rested for six weeks or longer of 011131 and could prove hard to beat on his comeback."
I think that record might actually be 0111321 if that second place in the same race is considered (first run for nine months), but its inclusion as part of the record hardly weakens the case. Quite the opposite, in fact – the RPR of 135 was a then career-best which he equalled in winning over the same C&D in March 2010 (the final "1" in the sequence above). In both instances, as again today’s, the going was essentially good.
These equally meritous form performances were arrived at courtesy of two very different rides, one a made all and the other a held up; and if that suggests a tactical versatility which means his chances today aren’t wholly contingent on getting another uncontested lead, then so much the better, as old Lough Derg probably isn’t very likely to grant him one of those. By the same token, if the decent pace of both of those previous C&D runs is a prerequisite to producing a comparable effort a third time, you’d hope Lough Derg will set enough of one.
That’d be my hopes for and about the race, in any event. Running to 135 again may still not be enough to win the race if some of those on loftier marks don’t all under-perform, of course, but at least you know where you stand with Alderluck in the prevailing circumstances to a greater or lesser extent. As DJ and others have said, it’s a dead fascinating thread, this.
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
Place money today only, the pace wasn’t strong enough to bring him close enough to win imo. Still on a good mark anyway for the future.
Regarding Alderluck, today wasn’t his class imo.
Class 1 & 2: 2400P
Class 3 or less: 011135P1Place money today only, the pace wasn’t strong enough to bring him close enough to win imo. Still on a good mark anyway for the future.
Perfectly happy with a place at a widely available 12/1, Slowhand…..Excellent thread generating some interesting posts…Well done that man!
Regarding Alderluck, today wasn’t his class imo.
Class 1 & 2: 2400P
Class 3 or less: 011135P1Powered by Linux
Regarding Alderluck, today wasn’t his class imo.
Possibly, possibly not, but I read from the comments in running that he was still a length up when crashing out two from home. I’ll need to see the race myself before conceding whether the eventual winner had him covered at the time.
Do agree entirely that the place finish of Ghufa still represents a very tidy piece of work for you, though. Nice one, sir.
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
Neck to neck at the 2nd last and both still going ok, it’s a never know GC I would say.
Regarding Alderluck, today wasn’t his class imo.
Possibly, possibly not, but I read from the comments in running that he was still a length up when crashing out two from home. I’ll need to see the race myself before conceding whether the eventual winner had him covered at the time.
Do agree entirely that the place finish of Ghufa still represents a very tidy piece of work for you, though. Nice one, sir.
gc
I know Alderluck finished 2nd in this last year but he is higher in the weights. Like you say, have a look at the race to assess if he would have won.
His record after a break is definately significant.
To be fair there isn’t a lot to go on is there really with a lot of NH horses at the hurdling stage? Unless they stick at hurdling then you have lots to go at.
I tend to like a few more runs which usually means watching for Chasers rather than Hurdlers.
I think the thread is going great, the input is very good and I’m sure over the winter a good few horses can be highlighted.
It will be interesting to see how people approach it as well.
What would be the first port of call? I like Course winners or the LH RH angle as a first call. Going has to be up there as well. Going can already be built in to prices though particularly with pure mudlarks.
Neck to neck at the 2nd last and both still going ok, it’s a never know GC I would say.
Unlucky with Ghufa btw SA. Putting in some good work on this thread and it makes for interesting reading.
As a cautioun note, Neesom on RUK today highlighted exactly why you have to be careful with this kind of method when pushing King’s Forest as a right handed runner. He simply is not, his win have come right handed but he runs some good races going left handed for sure and been beaten a long way going right handed also. His trainer even came on to say there isn’t really a preference except when going over fences he probably needs to go left handed if anything. So the right handed point needed to be explored further not taken on face value.
First time out records for jumpers are all too common, decent jumpers will start off in weak novice hurdles and chases where they have to fall over to lose so they need a little more exploring than just being taken on face value.
Each race is an individual puzzle and the ability of the runner and their form has to be understood first and foremost before any profiling can commence as it’s all only relevant to the race at hand.
To be fair SH, you’re doing that anyway by categorising by class etc. But I think things always need further study as I mentioned earlier, Le Toreador won a class 2 handicap, it may as well have been a class 4.
Hi TBR
What you are touching on is an important aspect of viewing form reading full stop.
Just how detailed an analysis is required?
To me there is over analysis which if taken to an extreme leaves you with far too much info that actually tells you less.
I think there was a survey in the US that showed that the more criterion used, something like 50 different ways of looking at form, actually gave worst results than just using 3 basic criterion.
What you say about Novice races is true, a horse could actually win under conditions as a novice that later he isn’t favoured by when competing at a higher level.
Personally I don’t do a lot of NH analysis because I find the Flat more rewarding. On the Flat a horse win its maiden and then is competing usually in races that won’t be easy races to win and so any favourable traits are easier to see.
As you point out a horse can run in numerous Novice events and create a profile that isn’t actually representative of its real traits.
You could of course exclude all Novice events from a profile, but that may wipe out a lot of winning form.
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To be fair SH, you’re doing that anyway by categorising by class etc. But I think things always need further study as I mentioned earlier, Le Toreador won a class 2 handicap, it may as well have been a class 4.
And to be fair to Le Toreador, he had comfortably beaten Ivory Silk in that handicap, who had himself finished a close 2nd in a good class 2 h/c on his previous outing.
There are several psychological effects which I think are worth bearing in mind from a betting perspective – one of which seems relevant to this thread.
It’s been established in a variety of studies that, when making decisions, people will tend to place an undue (relative to it’s actual importance) weighting on the most recent piece of information they receive.
My suggestion would be that this phenomena contributes to significant features of a horse’s form being under-bet when those features are not apparent in their last one or two runs.
True Reet, but this is great thing about form analysis, we can see it so many ways. She has also gone backwards since then, she may have just lost her way abit and could be ok treated now but she is, like Piscean, dependant on a heavy pace so with Le Toredaor doing as he pleased up front was never going to compete that day.
Hi TBR
What you are touching on is an important aspect of viewing form reading full stop.
Just how detailed an analysis is required?
To me there is over analysis which if taken to an extreme leaves you with far too much info that actually tells you less.
I think there was a survey in the US that showed that the more criterion used, something like 50 different ways of looking at form, actually gave worst results than just using 3 basic criterion.
What you say about Novice races is true, a horse could actually win under conditions as a novice that later he isn’t favoured by when competing at a higher level.
Personally I don’t do a lot of NH analysis because I find the Flat more rewarding. On the Flat a horse win its maiden and then is competing usually in races that won’t be easy races to win and so any favourable traits are easier to see.
As you point out a horse can run in numerous Novice events and create a profile that isn’t actually representative of its real traits.
You could of course exclude all Novice events from a profile, but that may wipe out a lot of winning form.
Very good point about over analysing, I think as with any method it has to be refined and reach a level of consistency. Depending on how analytical a person or what information there is to hand will determine that level. If your method gets results, then who can question that!
The King’s Forest example is a good one I feel, not that his right handed record on the word of Neesom was keeping him tucked in at 7/2
but I was struggling to comprehend him being so short, if a method similar was to pull you to a runner such as King’s Forest then you’d be going under the odds in my opinion. However holding the opinion his right handed form was over played and a return to a right handed course and Kempton specifically was not overly significant would have made him a fair lay.Not that your approach would have brought you to this runner, but you see my point.
Herecomesthetruth
LH – 5131O1P3
RH – 11111U3Looks good on paper – his unseating was when held behind Deep Purple at Cheltenham whilst the third was when attempting to concede 2 stone all round at Fontwell on his latest start.
First Time Out – 511
Won on his season return for the past two seasons – the fifth placed finishing was also his rules debut in a bumper at Chepstow (record at the track 511).
He’s yet to race at Exeter but the track should suit him and the long straight will help him.
Record on Soft – 11O11 (ran out at the last at Cheltenham when going ok).
He’s yet to race over a trip this short which for me would be the only doubt but he beat the Champion Chase runner-up Forpadydeplasterer over 2 1/2m on his return last season so I’d expect a bold show for his new stable (another positive IMO) with the only other possible negative bar the trip is the presence of other front runners in the race (providing new connections employ the usual tactics).
At 25/1 he’s well worth a bet each-way for one of his profile and with just the five of the nine horses in the handicap.
Martin
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You read my mind, Martin; even the switch to Chris Gordon isn’t a negative. Exeter should play to his strengths and Twist Magic lets him in to the race on a very handy weight.
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Agree that Herecomesthetruth has an excellent profile for the race and, with his trainer seemingly determined to ensure a proper test, the 25/1 doesn’t nearly do him justice.
However, Somersby’s profile strongly suggests that he will also benefit from the likely pace and ground, and – despite some’s doubt about his readiness – Henrietta has sent the likes of Best Mate, Edredon Bleu and Impek out primed for this race in the past, and I doubt today would be any different.
). Think he’s been fortunate to get so many fronters in his latest races but he does seem to love the pollytrack also.
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