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Does anyone do this sort of thing?
Basically finding a horse’s favourite and not so favourite conditions.
For instance – tomorrow in the 4.20 Southwell – a horse I’ve been waiting for is running – its form has been hidden for a few runs.
Lucky Punt
Lefthanded form: 464111211238
Right Handed form: 4086052870055The main reason for this is that he loves Southwell – and possibly dislikes the other surfaces. He has recently run at LH Lingfield and was unplaced so you can be sure its the Southwell surface he likes.
Record at Southwell
11121123His last few runs have been at RH Kempton and LH Lingfield. His last run at Southwell was when favourite off a mark of 90 – too high a mark
Tomorrow because of the runs when he couldn’t show his best his mark has dropped to 84 – when last off that mark he won by 5 lengths here.
He likes to be near the pace – which makes small fields his preferred – he has won in a big field – but his record in fields of 10 or less is 48171211235 – against his record in larger fields is 406095286410085.
Thats the sort of profile i knock up on horses that can win races – it doesn’t work for many horses who struggle to win often enough but can be quiet interesting for backing or laying once you find likes and dislikes.
Maybe we could use this thread to highlight some of these horses with strong preferences.
You can call it profiling but it’s actually referred to as a system. It’s a method or a set of methods designed to give a clue about whether a horse can win a race, which is exactly what you did here.
It is very common and being done regularly.Just the type of thing many are interested in – feel free to post any selections on this page, it’ll be interesting to see how they get on.
What is the name of teh horse today btw?
What is the name of
teh
horse today btw?
It’s the well known spelling error
Pucky Lunt
!
Good profile at this Course, but not at today’s distance.
Paddy Power knocked back my £0.37 bet.
Nice One
http://i871.photobucket.com/albums/ab273/quadrilla/LuckyPunt.jpg
Paddy Power knocked back my £0.37 bet.
Slowhand wrote:
"Does anyone do this sort of thing?"
Lucky Punt Won 10/1
After a result like that I think we may well do now, Slowhand.
Well done for starting what should turn out to be a very popular thread and a breath of fresh air.Does anyone do this sort of thing?
Basically finding a horse’s favourite and not so favourite conditions.
For instance – tomorrow in the 4.20 Southwell – a horse I’ve been waiting for is running – its form has been hidden for a few runs.
Lucky Punt
Lefthanded form: 464111211238
Right Handed form: 4086052870055The main reason for this is that he loves Southwell – and possibly dislikes the other surfaces. He has recently run at LH Lingfield and was unplaced so you can be sure its the Southwell surface he likes.
Record at Southwell
11121123His last few runs have been at RH Kempton and LH Lingfield. His last run at Southwell was when favourite off a mark of 90 – too high a mark
Tomorrow because of the runs when he couldn’t show his best his mark has dropped to 84 – when last off that mark he won by 5 lengths here.
He likes to be near the pace – which makes small fields his preferred – he has won in a big field – but his record in fields of 10 or less is 48171211235 – against his record in larger fields is 406095286410085.
Thats the sort of profile i knock up on horses that can win races – it doesn’t work for many horses who struggle to win often enough but can be quiet interesting for backing or laying once you find likes and dislikes.
Maybe we could use this thread to highlight some of these horses with strong preferences.
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thanks for replies
I was hoping to encourage discussion on the main forum- i didn’t just want to use the thread to post winners or "system" selections.
Cormack has pm’d me to let me know its here – but it is questionable if its a system tbh.
There are no hard and fast rules for instance – many horses could be said to have a pattern when they don’t for instance.
If people want to discuss how they look at this sort of thing then maybe we can do so here.
I’ve had a cracking day, I couldn’t believe they let this drift out so much – won like an odds on favourite didn’t it?
- Total Posts 17716
Good call, SH.
‘Profiling’ certainly isn’t a system, and is used by a number of the sharper minds on this board in identifying horses’ proclivities for various circumstances; indeed, I believe I’m correct in saying that some are involved in a quite successful advisory service using a similar( though more detailed) approach.
Certainly thought there was mileage in the subject for discussion on the main board (even before the horse won, btw) and if any of the mods look in, hopefully they would reconsider?Thanks RH
Its a big subject really imo. Actually removing the wheat from the chaff isn’t systematic at all, it involves judgement calls and general form reading aspects.
For instance, what constitutes a favoured condition? what if a horse has won when not favoured by conditions that now look to be negatives.
I remember the old Profile software that was pretty good at the time. Maybe that broke the form down just a little too much. Which begs another question, how much do you break the conditions down?
A big subject.
The sub-heading for the Systems area of the Board is
"
Discuss systems and methods and put up your system’s selections
"
so I reckon "Profiling Horses" belongs here but if it has to be moved, that’s OK as long as you let me and the rest of Ward 7 know where its gone!
Isn’t that right, Matron?………
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- Total Posts 17716
It’s my understanding that a
system
is a series of clearly defined steps which will be identically applied by all who use it, and leave everyone with the same selection(s).
Amethod
is an approach that requires personal judgement at each stage, so not only can 2 people using the same method come up with different selections, one person might arrive at different horses by using slightly different judgement.
Profiling falls into the latter (imo), and is far too interesting and useful a subject to be constrained by hard and fast rules. Plus, of course, members who use profiling regularly, and could possibly shed quite a bit of light on the subject, might never think to look in the systems section of the forum, (much as i wouldn’t have, were it not for trying to find SH’s original post).Many thanks for putting a good case forward RH. Obviously I wanted people to discuss this as I can keep fnding these for myself without ever posting anything up, as i am sure others can.
I always think that if you throw ideas around then at some point someone will come up with something you haven’t thought of. None of us have all the answers and its surprising how the most simple move can be missed when you are looking at an idea on your own.
I certainly can’t see a stand out tomorrow but there is one I am having a small bet on.
In the 3.20 at Catterick,
Elite Land
could surprise at big odds. This one is a Catterick specialist – 1131 at the course.
He needs a good pace and should get it here with Drop The Hammer & Spear Thistle in the race. Six races ago he was favourite at Haydock off a mark of 65 and was just beaten. Tomorrow he has dropped nicely to 65 again, so is perfectly handicapped here.
His last run was decent as the race wasn’t his cup of tea with the slow pace but he managed to only be beaten 6 lengths in a better race than this.
At decent odds this one has plenty going for him in this.
- Total Posts 17716
Hard luck today, SH, – place money only, but certainly effective so far.
I’ve been doing this kind of thing for years Slowhand. A few cautionary pointers though. I found that when I kept big lists of such horses and had them flagged up on RI when they ran I spent hours looking at too many races each day, many if them moderate contests where the horses were inconsistent. I also found that it was hard to evaluate the race objectively when one of "my" horses was in it. What I do now is look at the better racing and store all such notes in the RP database so they pop up when studying the race. Any horse I really don’t want to miss goes into Horseracebase and gets flagged up there but I try and keep that list small. Thus way I study the races I have the best record in and don’t waste so much time going up blind alleys. Hope all that makes sense- as a method it has merit though.
Cheers RH
I know they went fast today but he sat an awful long way back, did seem to have an awful lot to do even though the leaders came back.
I know exactly what you mean about discarding other runners because one you have noted is running Carvills.
Its a bit like you have inside info on a horse and none of the others are trying, which is a flaw for the inside info people as well. Then again actually having inside info should involve knowing if others are actually trying
As in many aspects of weighing up horse form its recognising the significant trend from the coincidence or random.
For instance, a horse might win on slow ground 3 times, so it looks like a slow ground horse, but its actually the course that it performs best on on each of those 3 runs, or its best after a break of so many days.
Some horses have form that is so random you can’t predict anything. I would say if you can find one or two horses a week that are really good profile horses you are doing well.
Then when you find the horse you need the conditions to suit, preferably pace of race to suit, handicap mark to suit.
Thats why i wouldn’t say its a system, more a selection process mixed with general form reading principles.
Handicap marks are a big key to it imo, if i have a horse that fits a race but the mark is to high I discard it as trainers like to keep marks manageable. I take the view that many horses could win handicaps back to back, but trainers make sure that doesn’t happen as once a moderate horse wins 2 races back to back it might take 6 months to bring it back to a level it can win off. Far better to get 1 win, then another one 3 or 4 runs later, it keeps owners more interested as well I would imagine.
Handicap marks and how a trainer manages them is a topic all of its own I think
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