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ew,
I don’t really anaylse results in terms of the grade of the race because I only rate races where the RP top-rated is 90+(flat) or 120+(jumps). I know there is quite a fair spread above this bench mark from decent E grade handicaps to Group 1. Generally, the higher the grade, the more reliable the ratings and hence the greater the profitability. Better class horses tend to accumulate high positive factor points scores, which added to the form/speed points can take them to +20 and higher on the flat and +23 and higher over the jumps.  However, I wouldn’t put anyone off using similar methods to mine in much lower grade races – it still produces a reasonable proportion of winners. I just find these low grade horses frustratingly unreliable. Maybe only the connections know when they are likely to put their best foot forward.
dave,<br>I didn’t mention your impressive table in my last post.<br>17,500 races is a very large sample and the fact that there is almost a direct relationship between the ratings and the no. of winners is very significant. The weaknesses I mentioned are valid, but in practice, the vast majority of races are contested by horses of similar ability. Finishing positions should not be underestimated, which is why the Fineform formula and the formula you give can produce surprisingly good results with little form study.
Today’s qualifying bets:
Aint 1.40 Baron Windrush 156(+14) 20pts win won 13/8<br>    2.10 Over The Creek 149(+22) 30pts win won 7/4<br>    3.50 Rebel Rhythm 135(+17) 20pts win 2nd
Weekly Total <br>Stakes 470pts Profit 303 pts<br>Running Total (since Sep 23rd)<br>Stakes 4,512 pts Profit 251pts (+5.6%) <br>
(Edited by Artemis at 5:05 pm on Nov. 21, 2004)
The table is impressive isn’t it … no one was more impressed than me when I worked it out … :biggrin:
The general thrust I was making was that some data is relevant and other data is not. I reckon this data is relevant because it does have a direct relationship to strike rate. (Flat figures ony).
As you pointed out though, bare figures are no good really but when they are factored they’re not bad at all.
Although I jumped the gun last week, the Wolverhampton speed ratings have appeared in this morning’s RP and should boost the ratings to give a few more qualifiers on the AW. There are three instances today where these ratings have significantly boosted a horse’s final rating, but in each case the standard of the race is below the minimum qualifying mark of a top -rated RPR of 90+. I will be keeping an eye on these horses, but they are not included in the qualifiers for reasons stated above. They are: <br>Sout 2.30 Glencairn Star 86(+16)<br>     1.30 Maria Bonita 85(+10)<br>     2.30 Shaymees Girl 90(+18)<br>Ling  2.40 Lucius Verrus 78(+14).<br>Interesting to see how they perform as they all come into their race with a recent speed rating above the level required today.
Today’s qualifiers:
Ludl 1.50 Salsalino 145(+13) 20pts winunpl<br>     3.20 Lord Of Illusion 149(+18) 30 pts winwon 10/11 <br>Sout 2.00 Major Faux Pas 103(+12) 20pts winWon 9/4<br>     3.00 Gallery Breeze 95 (+10) 10pts ewunpl
Stakes 90pts Profit 32pts<br>
(Edited by Artemis at 7:02 pm on Nov. 22, 2004)
Hi Artemis<br>Nice tipping hope your wallet is filling up.the racing looks hard tommorow and the aw looks dodgy to me,i am struggling with my aw ratings,but what really interests me is,say a horse knocks a hurdle and loses 2-3 lengths,how do you equate that in yor form
Hi Frank,<br>Wallet is filling but I’m only putting back what I took out earlier.<br>AW isn’t easy, but you just have to stay with the form. A lot of unexplainable results, much more so than the more reliable turf racing. Some people much prefer the AW, but I find the overall standard less easy to rate.<br>It’s impossible to make allowances for errors without watching every race in detail, and even then I think your’e wiser to just accept that in the overall scheme of things, good and bad luck will even itself out. I suppose that if a horse makes a mistake that costs it ground, then it has got what it deserves.
Only one qualifier today:
Sout 3.10 Nearly A Fool 100(+16) 20pts ew unpl
Stakes 40pts Loss 40pts
(Edited by Artemis at 8:35 am on Nov. 24, 2004)
Today’s qualifiers:
Chep 1.05 Icy Blast  127(+13) 10pts win 2nd<br>Ling  12.15 Try Catch Paddy 128(+13) 20pts win unpl<br>Weth 12.55 Get My Drift 143(+17) 10pts win unpl<br>      3.10 Strong Resolve 145(+15) 20pts win won 15/8
Stakes 60pts Loss 3pts
(Edited by Artemis at 4:18 pm on Nov. 24, 2004)
Today’s qualifiers:
Taun  3.55 Red Society 130(+16) 20pts win2nd<br>Carl   1.15 Provacative 147(+21) 30pts win2nd<br>      2.25 Grattan Lodge 160(+18) 30pts win won 1/1<br>      3.00 Kid’z’play 139(+20) 30pts win unpl
Stakes 110pts Loss 50pts
(Edited by Artemis at 4:55 pm on Nov. 25, 2004)
Today’s qualifiers:
Wolv  1.20 Nanton 101(+19) 10pts ew 3rd 7/1<br>      2.50 Blythe Spirit 111(+14) 10pts ewunpl<br>      3.20 Inch By Inch 102(+18) 30pts win 3rd<br>Bang  1.10 Tizi Ouzou 133(+13) 20pts win unpl<br>Muss  2.30 Jake Black 137(+13) 20pts win unpl<br>Stakes 110pts Loss 86pts<br>There will be no post tomorrow as I have to visit relatives. No Racing Post, no TV racing, but my wife wants to get back in time for the X Factor. Enough said.
(Edited by Artemis at 10:47 am on Nov. 28, 2004)
Today’s qualifiers:
Donc  1.20 Garde Bien 142(+17) 20pts winwon1/1<br>Newb  1.40 Comply Or Die 167(+14) 20pts win unpl(fell)<br>      2.45 Mighty Strong 152(+16) 20pts win won 5/1
Stakes 60pts profit 100pts<br>Weekly total<br>Stakes 470pts loss 47pts<br>Running Total<br>Stakes 4,982 pts profit 204pts (+4.2%)
<br>Looking at yesterday’s results, I saw a few winners that were missed, and also a few losers. I’m pretty confident now that this approach will always produce a high proportion of winners at a variety of odds. I believe other people might be able to do slightly better by tweaking the ratings a little, but I’m satisfied with my scoring scheme and don’t envisage any changes. I’ve been looking at systems and methods for more years than I care to remember. I think that I can now stop looking and settle for this method as a fairly quick way to pick out the day’s best bets on form. There are. of course, plenty of other approaches to the job, such as following trainers at certain courses. Future developments such as sectional timing will also provide new opportunities for developing winner-finding methods.<br>
(Edited by Artemis at 6:17 pm on Nov. 28, 2004)
I think your right about this approach Artemis, it is very robust and well rounded.
One thing that is a bit of a mystery to me is, how you work out your stakes. I’ve looked through this thread and have either missed it or you haven’t said?
Any chance … :biggrin:
I think I’ve mentioned the staking plan in earlier posts, but it is fairly straightforward. It depends on the size of the’plus(+)’ factor.
Jumps +13 to +17 +18 to +22 +23 to +27 28+<br>Flat +10 to +14 +15 to +19 +20 to +24 25+
20pts win 30pts win 40pts win 50pts w<br> 10pts ew 20pts ew 20pts ew 20pts e<br> <br>In races restricted to maidens, the bet is 10pts win or 10pts ew. The decision as to whether or not to bet ew is guided by the price in the Racing Post’s betting forecast.
Only one qualifier today:
Newc 1.50 Supreme Developer 135(+14) 10pts win. 2nd<br>Stakes 10pts loss 10pts
In the other races rated, they were either too close to produce a clear qualifier, or the score fell short of the minimum required standard. For interest only, they were:
Wolv 2.10 Quiet Times 131(+16), Moayed 130(+15), Smart Hostess 129(+14)  TOO CLOSE<br>Newc 1.20 Tandava 136(+18), Caraman 135(+17) TOO CLOSE<br>      2.20 Political Sox 131(+10),Florries Son 129(+8),  Temple Dog 127(+6) BELOW MIN STANDARD <br>Folk 3.00 Count Campioni 128(+12), Rudi Knight 123(+7) BELOW MIN STANDARD
There were a few other races which were well below the minimum standard.<br>
(Edited by Artemis at 5:45 pm on Nov. 30, 2004)
Again, Just one qualifier today, although there were races which were too close to produce a definite qualifier. A horse has to be at least 3 points clear to qualify.
Ling 12.30 Noora 93(+10) 20pts win unpl
Stakes 20pts loss 20pts
(Edited by Artemis at 5:47 pm on Nov. 30, 2004)
Today’s qualifiers:
Plum 2.40 Jones’s Road 139(+17) 20pts win NR<br>Catt  1.50 Forest Dante 130(+13) 20pts win 2nd
Stakes 20pts loss 20pts
(Edited by Artemis at 8:23 am on Dec. 2, 2004)
Today’s qualifiers:
Mras  1.50 Jodante 133(+16) 20pts win unpl<br>Leic   2.30 Lord Halfnothin 136(+14) 20pts winunpl<br>Winc  1.40 Inca Trail 140(+13) 20pts win won 11/4<br>      3.10 Lacdoudal 155(+18) 30pts win 2nd
Stakes 90pts loss 15pts
(Edited by Artemis at 4:38 pm on Dec. 2, 2004)
Better quality racing today, so more qualifiers. Only races with a RP top-rated of 90+ (flat) or 120+(jumps) are considered.
Wolv 1.20 Nanton 101(+19) 10pts win  won 3/1<br>     2.25 Kingsmaite 116(+21) 20pts ew unpl<br>     4.30 Top Mark 99(+16) 10pts win unpl<br>Exet  1.10 Lord Buckingham 128(+13) 20pts win 3rd<br>Sand 1.30 Papini 141 (+15) 20pts win 2nd<br>      2.35 Colonel Frank 174(+13) 20pts win won 9/4<br>     3.10 Moving Earth 143(+17) 10pts ew unpl
<br>Stakes 140pts  loss 35pts
A little experiment . It has been my contention for some time that the above horses will be highlighted by many people and syndicates as bets for today. If that is the case, they will. on average be a shorter price than they are quoted in the RP and on the exchanges before the market settles down. I have listed below the horse, the RP forecast price and the exchange price at around 9.00am. non -runners will, of course need to be taken into account as the market settles down.<br>                   RP    Betfair<br>Wolv 1.20 Nanton    7/2    11/4<br>     2.25 Kingsmaite  6/1    13/2<br>Exet 1.10 Lord Buck.  5/2     2/1<br>Sand 1.30 Papini     1/1     5/6<br>     2.35 Colonel F.  7/4     9/4<br>     3.10 Moving E.  13/2    15/2
Watch out, in particular, for some of these horses to shorten up very close to the off.<br>Well, everything above drifted rather than shortened up, so I don’t know what to make of it. This is certainly against the trend – the qualifying horses are usually well supported. I wonder if this comes under the heading of Murphy’s Law, which states:
A piece of jam and bread or toast will always fall in such a way that the jammed/buttered side hits the floor, except when you attempt to demonstrate the law to an audience, when the reverse will be the case.
<br>(Edited by Artemis at 4:42 pm on Dec. 3, 2004)<br>
(Edited by Artemis at 4:59 pm on Dec. 3, 2004)
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