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Is there any real evidence that firm ground contributes to more equine injuries and deaths? The general consensus seems to be "Water more! Water more!" Sure, many horses
prefer
soft turf, but it doesn’t seem to affect horse safety.
Here is the official findings based on going
Between 1990 to 2011 the has been 1 race on firm going, 12 races on good going, 5 races on good to soft going and 3 races on heavy.
The going races from Hard to Heavy.
The spectrum is Hard, Firm, Good to Firm, Good, Good to Soft, Soft and Heavy. Racecourses these days don’t let national hunt horse go on hard, but they sometimes did during the eighties.The race on Firm (Mr Frisk year)Produced 11 fallers (F) or unseated riders (UR).
The 12 races on Good had 183 (F) or (UR) an average of 15.25
The 5 on Good to Soft had 58 (F) or (UR) an average of 11.6
The 3 on Heavy had 62 (F) or (UR) an average of 20.67Think it’s good that they’ve got rid of the drop at the first fence, because they tend to jump it very fast and very big, and it seems to catch out the better jumpers. After that they will [hopefully] start to realise this is different to other races and use their heads a bit more?
Reading the report fence 4 or 20 on the second circuit needed altering. Over half the field that ran from 1990 to 2011 (collectively) fell or unseated riders at the first, fourth and sixth (AKA Bechers).
The first they used to charge at and the report says they unuse to jumping anything like a national fence before.
I would say that racecourses elsewhere are to blame for this making fences easier to jump. So horses don’t jump as high.
The fourth though takes 12.6% of fallers, higher than anyother plain fence (Apart from the first). It also takes quite a few in the Topham. So lowering of this fence seems justified to me.
Having read the report in full just one brief sentence on the breeding of horses running in the National!
How many horses nowadays are from flat bred stallions totally unable to see out distances in long distance chases?
That is wrong.
A horse with flat bred staying influences as sire, dam and dam’s sire is highly likely to stay extreme distances over fences. Just as highly likely as a "jump bred" animal. Although what exactly is a "jump bred" is questionable. Is Old Vic flat bred? By the greatest flat sire of recent years Saddlers Wells. I suggest you look at Old Vic’s recent Grand National record Astralcharmer.
Value Is EverythingIs there any real evidence that firm ground contributes to more equine injuries and deaths? The general consensus seems to be "Water more! Water more!" Sure, many horses
prefer
soft turf, but it doesn’t seem to affect horse safety.
A "jockeys Doctor" told me injuries go up significantly on a sound surface. He couldn’t see why it would be any different for horses.
Value Is EverythingGingertipster
You are missing my point. Look at how many NH sires (and dam sires) that never saw a fence and never won a race over more than 2 miles.
Someone has to win the National and Old Vic’s appear to have more of a stamina influence, but just look at the number of horses unable to get home over just 4 miles in the ever diminshing amount of long distance chases.
It is not just soft ground but light framed flat bred horses ill-equiped and not designed to meet the demands of these races and the problem is getting worse season by season as the stamina influence weakens in each generation.
Going back to my original observation. The BHA have virtually ignored this aspect in their detailed report but think horses rated under 120 and 6 year olds are a problem worth banning!!
Gingertipster
You are missing my point. Look at how many NH sires (and dam sires) that never saw a fence and never won a race over more than 2 miles.
Someone has to win the National and Old Vic’s appear to have more of a stamina influence, but just look at the number of horses unable to get home over just 4 miles in the ever diminshing amount of long distance chases.
It is not just soft ground but light framed flat bred horses ill-equiped and not designed to meet the demands of these races and the problem is getting worse season by season as the stamina influence weakens in each generation.
Going back to my original observation. The BHA have virtually ignored this aspect in their detailed report but think horses rated under 120 and 6 year olds are a problem worth banning!!
Just to remind you Red Rum himself started as a flat horse, coincidentally winner (dead heat) at 5 furlongs seller at Aintree the same year Foinavon won the big race.
Removed the drop at the 1st, lowered the 4th and reduced the drop at the 6th. So what is going to happen on April 14th next year? Horses will be travelling even quicker.
You think an Australian would have worked out that one by now looking at what has happened in his native land.
Altering the 4th fence I’m in total agreement with after reading the report.
Although the GN has become a more thorough test of stamina in recent years, you don’t necessarily need a stallion who stayed 2 miles or more in order to produce a winner of it.
Glancing at stallions who’ve sired 2 or more individual winners of the race, Vulgan (3 winners) was admittedly a through stayer, but Ascetic (3) was a low-grade sprinter.
My Prince (3) (dam full sister to champion sprinter Diomedes), was high class from 8f to 12f, Cottage (3) was a useful staying handicapper, Jackdaw (2) stayed really well (although sprint-bred), Hackler (2) was a miler, Old Vic (2) was best at 12f and Montelimar (2) was a 10f horse.
Raising the age to seven. First only 1 six year and 1 5 year old have won in the past century, the last seven year old was in world war two (1940) so I’d don’t think this will make much difference.
six year olds don’t generally run often because of the typical training cycle of a British thoroughbred but why should a French bred horse be expelled that could have a vast amount more experience jumping fences at six than a seven year old British horse? It doesn’t make sense and is ill thought out.
I use Mon Parrain as an example because he is now excluded from the race and would be the first six year old in a while who genuinely could have stood a chance of winning it had they wanted to go that route. They they may have been considering it as he has already been over the national fences as a five year old and finished second but now can’t as a six year old one year on.
Though I agree in the long term it probably won’t make much difference.
This what Paul Nicholls reported to the Weekender about
Mon Parrain
Straight From The Stable article Volume 28 Issue Number 14 (Wednesday 5.10.11 to Sunday 9.10.11)
MON PARRAIN
"A cracking handicap chaser who won three times over hurdles and twice in chases in France before losing his way a bit. On his debut for us he destroyed handicap opposition off a mark of 133 and we felt he was well worth aiming at the Topham Chase in April. He jumped like an old hand and really enjoyed the National fences, but he didn’t find as much as we hoped and finished second. I am at a loss to know his optimum trip but we will go for the Paddy Power Gold Cup and then take a view. I wouldn’t know whether or not he is on a winning mark."Gingertipster
You are missing my point. Look at how many NH sires (and dam sires) that never saw a fence and never won a race over more than 2 miles.
Someone has to win the National and Old Vic’s appear to have more of a stamina influence, but just look at the number of horses unable to get home over just 4 miles in the ever diminshing amount of long distance chases.
It is not just soft ground but light framed flat bred horses ill-equiped and not designed to meet the demands of these races and the problem is getting worse season by season as the stamina influence weakens in each generation.
Going back to my original observation. The BHA have virtually ignored this aspect in their detailed report but think horses rated under 120 and 6 year olds are a problem worth banning!!
So would you ban horses with "flat" breeding, then? You’d be getting rid of quite a few GN winners, including several from the good ol’days
Raising the age to seven. First only 1 six year and 1 5 year old have won in the past century, the last seven year old was in world war two (1940) so I’d don’t think this will make much difference.
six year olds don’t generally run often because of the typical training cycle of a British thoroughbred but why should a French bred horse be expelled that could have a vast amount more experience jumping fences at six than a seven year old British horse? It doesn’t make sense and is ill thought out.
I use Mon Parrain as an example because he is now excluded from the race and would be the first six year old in a while who genuinely could have stood a chance of winning it had they wanted to go that route. They they may have been considering it as he has already been over the national fences as a five year old and finished second but now can’t as a six year old one year on.
Though I agree in the long term it probably won’t make much difference.
This what Paul Nicholls reported to the Weekender about
Mon Parrain
Straight From The Stable article Volume 28 Issue Number 14 (Wednesday 5.10.11 to Sunday 9.10.11)
MON PARRAIN
"A cracking handicap chaser who won three times over hurdles and twice in chases in France before losing his way a bit. On his debut for us he destroyed handicap opposition off a mark of 133 and we felt he was well worth aiming at the Topham Chase in April. He jumped like an old hand and really enjoyed the National fences, but he didn’t find as much as we hoped and finished second. I am at a loss to know his optimum trip but we will go for the Paddy Power Gold Cup and then take a view. I wouldn’t know whether or not he is on a winning mark."It will be interesting to see how he goes in the Paddypower, I think 2 1/2 will prove too short, I feel he was outpaced after the last in the Topham and just kept on in the same gear he’d gone through the race in. I was hoping he’d run in the Bowl at the Aintree meeting last year to be honest as I think he is that good.
We’ll see soon enough I suppose but I tend not to listen to trainers to often other wise Twiston Davies would have 15+ grade 1 winners a year!
The change has not been with the sires but the dams of NH horses, where the stallions have nearly always been "lesser" flat racers the dams in the past came from jumping families often with a bit of hunter or rough breeding. We are seeing less of these type of mares & also more flat horses are being recycled into the sphere of jumping, ok this has always happened but is more frequent today.
The French horses on the other hand, though light framed in some cases have some rough blood & some pedigrees include Anglo Norman blood.
French bred sires & runners have been evident in steeplechase pedigrees all of the 20thc. Fortina, Vulgan, Manicou, Roselier, are some that spring to mind.Stamina is a major issue with the Grand Naitional, but i think this placed fourth or higher in a 3 mile + race is just a stat grasped from thin air. Some superficial changes because they’re pandering to people with little knowledge of the sport.
Also, i love the cliche that gets rattled off now about the Grand National being a better race because 20 years ago it was full of 120 rated slow paced nags :
Party Politics won in 1992, was rated 153 and ran off 10-7
Royal Athlete won in 1995, was rated 155 and ran off 10-6
Minnehoma won in 1994, was rated 153 and ran off 10-8These were good races with quality horses.
People praise the handicapper for compressing the weights, but a few years ago he had Crozan – winner of one novice chase – rated only 3 or 4 lbs below Monkerhostin. That’s crazy, and potentially dangerous for the horse.
Some commentators should get their facts straight before they go on air. How many times have we heard one talk about the great form of a trainer, when in actual fact they’ve had one winner from twenty runners ? Think it was someone waxing lyrical a few weeks ago about Gosden and a look at the stats told you he was going through one of the worst spells of the season.
Cliches, platitudes. Racing is full of them.
Stamina is a major issue with the Grand Naitional, but i think this placed fourth or higher in a 3 mile + race is just a stat grasped from thin air. Some superficial changes because they’re pandering to people with little knowledge of the sport.
This is an attempt to eliminate non stayers. While the are loopholes in this rule which will be exploited, some trainers use to say you need a good two and half mile chaser to win the national. They believed that the first circuit you just try to survive it and raced on the second. This might have been true once, I personally doubt it, but now you need something which can get over 3 miles.
Stamina is a major issue with the Grand Naitional, but i think this placed fourth or higher in a 3 mile + race is just a stat grasped from thin air. Some superficial changes because they’re pandering to people with little knowledge of the sport.
This is an attempt to eliminate non stayers. While the are loopholes in this rule which will be exploited, some trainers use to say you need a good two and half mile chaser to win the national. They believed that the first circuit you just try to survive it and raced on the second. This might have been true once, I personally doubt it, but now you need something which can get over 3 miles.
Fact is you’ve always needed a horse that would stay four and a half miles. The two and a half theory – never subscribed to it. Nicky Henderson said it once when considering entering Fondmort for the race – thank **** he never did that !
Both horses that tragically died this year would still have qualified under the new rules.
Party Politics won in a much quicker time than Hedgehunter under similar conditions. It was a quality race back then with stiffer fences.
Speaking of politics, that’s what this is, and now that people have influenced the race, they’ll be back every couple of years with further suggestions.
There’s much wrong with racing, but the BHA continue to oversee the sport with more madness than method. The similarities with football are clear, just that football is much richer.
Decent post Mark, agreed with a lot of it,
He did run Fondmort Mark, in 2005. He not surprisingly pulled up. You’re point is correct though, the old 2 and a half miler theory didn’t have much, erm, mileage in it. Classified, and The Tsarevich apart, I can’t remember any coming that close to actually winning it. Having said that though, I’ll miss these type of horses running in it, they definitely added to the interest. The mixed bag of runners always added to the appeal. I can recall urging on Celibate in 2002, after my horse was out of the race.
If they’ve taken this step to try and prevent someone going off like a scalded cat, which then sets a furious pace, then they should be congratulated, as reducing the speed of the race should have been their number one concern. Somehow, though, I doubt it, and it’ll have been the usual stab in the dark.
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