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Can a horse be disqualified for over use of the stick by French Stewards?
As there are very strict on interference and don’t hesitate to demote a runner for such an offence.
Flat racing not my thing at all but I’ve a weekend in wales in a beachfront caravan coming up and after climbing snowdon on Saturday morning I’m planning on not moving far from the sofa Saturday afternoon and Sunday casting my eye between the storm crashing in and landing my double of Ace Impact and Trueshan.
The more I know the less I understand.
Thanks RTB, I thought there was something going on.
My tickle on this is Simca Mille E/W 4 places at 18’s (BF), not really the right ground, but like the preps and obviously low on ratings, but the Arc is throwing up shocks in recent years.
Ace Impact undoubtedly has the best chance of winning, but his stamina is no way guaranteed.
Sire Cracksman stayed the trip but was at his very best at a mile and a quarter.
Ace Impact himself has often been quite free in the early stages of his races even when running over shorter. Goes well on soft ground at a lesser distance, but there must be a chance it places too much emphasis on stamina at 1m4f.
That said, am reluctant to go against a trainer in such magnificent form at the moment, much better than any of his main rivals.Hukum has a second favourite’s chance, but should he be so much shorter than Westover on King George form? Particularly with Burrows seemingly not in good form – although there’s time for that to change.
I can see that Westover is less consistent but has done nothing wrong in his last two starts and appears to be getting more tractable.Continuous ticks more boxes than the vast majority of St Leger winners. I’ve said plenty about him in the St Leger thread.
Bay Bridge came to form this time of year in 2022 (Champion Stakes) and 2021, not out of it if settling as well as he did last time out in the September Stakes.
Feed The Flame’s trial can be forgotten, pace of the race all against him. Can be expected to beat his Niel conqueror Fantastic Moon. On a line through Adelaide River Feed The Flame comes out just a 1/2 a length worse horse than Auguste Rodin.
Through Seven Seas got to within a neck of Equinox. The Japanese superstar well below his best, but Through Seven Seas may well have beaten him with a clear run through. Stamina for the extra furlong and effectiveness on ground need to be taken into account.
The one I’d definitely be against at the current prices is Hukum.
Value Is EverythingThe one I’d be against is Continuous
When was the last time the Arc was won by a horse for which the race was an after thought?
Ace impact, hukum, westover, feed the flame etc all been prepared specifically with this race in mind for months
Also his form just isn’t remotely close to being as good as theirs
I’d have him double the price he is
Happy with my two hukum and westover, they get beat by ace impact or feed the flame then fair enough as both of those will be coming from basically dead last and it’ll be some sight to see
Flicking through the horses can’t actually see many horses that like to go forward
Hornby will want to go forward from stall 1 on westover so as not to get trapped on the inside
Perhaps he will make the running, with Mr Hollywood and hukum likely to want to be prominent too
But don’t see this as being that strongly run on what I’m looking at
Which may make things tough for ace impact and feed the flame, who will be held up and being asked to pass horses that are quickening
In reality most horse targets are only known after their last time out start. Having backed O’Brien’s last two Arc winners – Found and Dylan Thomas – if I remember rightly their participation was not known until after their last time out start.Probably why I got a such a good price ante-post for Found.
Value Is EverythingIf looking at the 2016 Irish Champion Stakes:
Had the winner Almanzor won by staying on, he’d have gone for the Arc. But he didn’t, he won by producing more speed and so was kept at 1m2f and won the Champion at Ascot – which he won.
Had the second Found not been outspeeded by Almanzor she’d probably have kept to 1m2f. But it made sense after the Irish Champion to aim at the Arc – which she won. Only 13 days afterwards again finished second to Almanzor in the Champion at Ascot.
Had Minding won the Irish Champion she may well have run in the Arc or the Champion but only finished 3rd at Leopardstown and was instead brought back to a mile for the QEII – which she won.
Had the 2/1 favourite Harzand won the Irish Champion with ease he could have run in the Champion at Ascot, but disappointingly – badly outpaced – and went instead for the Arc where he disappointed again.Were Almanzor’s Champion at Ascot, Found’s Arc and Minding’s QEII all afterthoughts? Because their targets were only known after their last time out performances.
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Why Continuous may have a better chance than stats suggest and why the Arc is the obvious target, focussing on his career to date and particularly last time out at Donny:
Obviously the time between races is a concern. However, second to King Of Steel in the King Ed was – up to that point – Continuous’s best performance… And that came after just 19 days off the track. So there’s more of a chance he will run well with a quick reappearance than most Leger winners going on to the Arc.
Continuous was not thought good enough to be entered for the Arc but has since shown considerable improvement and won the Leger in a manner that suggests he should be equally effective returned to 1m4f given a surface and pace placing enough emphasis on stamina…
Leger also suggesting he may not be suited by any further (took quite a hold at one stage and quickened past his rivals) which means 2m+ end of season targets may not play to his strengths.
The Breeders Cup Turf may have been possible, but that can be run on a firm surface and therefore may not act on or be suited by less of a test of stamina at 1m4f. Ditto Japan Cup.
Therefore – after his last time out performance and good second in the King Ed – the Arc is the obvious target. Just like Almanzor, Found and Minding’s end of season targets were fairly obvious after their last time outs.
It is true to say the level of ability shown at Doncaster would not be good enough to win an average Arc. But this may be less than an average Arc and – judging from recent starts – Continuous only needs to maintain progression to be right in the mix.Value Is EverythingThe French can heat their balls up just as good as the English
Feed The Flame to murder themGaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
I think the winner has been supplemented!!
FANTASTIC MOON 12/1 My only worry is the draw.
He has form with Feed The Flame and if the rain stays away I can’t see him finishing out of the first four LD- if they announce that as g/s on sunday thattl be the equivalent of concrete to us lol
Anyway
Japan for the win
TTS @14/1, if the ground stays g/s aka firm then i dont see her beaten, if equinox was in this race he’d be evs, i was skeptical of his meydan win as that track is a joke, but its hard this far into the season to deny how good it looks, tts wouldnt have beaten equinox in japan even with a clear run as i believe equinox had more in the tank and taken a very wide route, but id have her about 125, which is enough to win this, equinox is currently underrated @126
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Onesto e/w @40/1+ purely speculative if he can return to best he’d have a frame chance
Cant have the fav, forms not good enough
Hukum & westover really interest me and out of the two id have westover, 6/1 is just far too short
Love continuous, but not for this, hes a cup horse
The rest are just much of the same imo, top level but not winning this if everything at the head runs to form
Good luck
One of my favourite races of the season and with ground conditions not looking to be extreme, we should keep this simple. Only had a quick look so far but to my eyes there are not that many that are proven both over the trip and at the level. At first glance Feed The Flame is jumping out at me but that is not yet set in stone.
“Cant have the fav, forms not good enough”
Ace Impact is rated 123 having only started to race in 2023, has a potent turn of foot, unexposed over the trip, unbeaten, ground fine and draw fine. I don’t trust taking the form literally in the Equinox race last time as he took the scenic route from the back and still won cosily. She could still run ok in this at a price but Japan are 0/30 in 53 years trying and have failed with higher profile horses in the past. I wouldn’t be surprised if Westover ran alright but I don’t think he has the turn of foot Ace Impact may well display on Sunday. Feed The Flame could run ok too but looks held by Ace Impact.
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