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Does anyone know of any important track differences between Longchamp and Chantilly? I’ve googled it but couldn’t find anything. Thanks in advance.
Minding has a very good chance in the arc as she has a very good burst of speed and if used at the right time can be devastating. Obviously she would like a little ease in the ground but can see her being at least placed. Order of St George also is in with a shout especially if it comes up soft or heavy. I can’t see Harzand winning as he isn’t quick enough. Postponed is too short for me and has had everything in his favour this season. If found is in the same form as she was last autumn then she could with a bit of luck be there at the death. Idaho could be a dark horse as he looks to be improving and will be ready after a rest over the summer. Plenty can change between now and October.
there isn’t a lot of positivity on Harzand in this thread. The only reason he was entered in the Derby was because the ground kind of went for him. He won on good ground in the Irish Derby and that showed me he was a really genuine horse.
If it is soft ground for this race then I wouldn’t underestimate him at all. He is a proper mudlark and will thrive in those conditions. If it’s good ground then yes, I wouldn’t be inclined to back him.
I think some people are a bit premature in writing Minding off as having had too much by the time the Arc comes around. I think she’s a tough filly and she has had seven wins and three seconds from ten starts.
She had five races as a two year old, including a group 2 and two group 1s. Despite it being the 9th of October, she put up a career best effort in easily winning the Fillies mile. Clearly the autumn holds no fears for her.
This year she bounced back from a shock defeat where she sustained a sinus injury, to win the Oaks with plenty in hand despite meeting a lot of trouble in running, and that was only 12 days after the Irish Guineas defeat. The only tough race she has really had was in the Irish Guineas.
I think she will be the one to beat in the Arc if the Ballydoyle mob can swallow their pride and admit their colts are largely rubbish this season.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Could not resist having a little bit on Found @ 60’s on the exchanges this morning.
Not a shadow of when she beat Golden Horn in the Breeders Cup, but seems to be an Autumn filly.
Late last week i noticed on Oddschecker that she was cut across the boards from 20’s to 3’1 for the Yorkshire Oaks in 2 hours. No idea if it was connections money, but if it was an improved performance may be on the cards. If she runs well you would presume Irish Champion, Arc and USA to follow.
Steve would you worry that AOB has a shocking record with 3yo horses in the arc he seems to win it with older horse.
As you know i love MINDING but i feel LA CRESSIONIRE will win got 14s for her and this be the plan since french 1000 guineas having nice break before running here i think she had enough rest and be the filly to beat here.Steve would you worry that AOB has a shocking record with 3yo horses in the arc he seems to win it with older horse.
As you know i love MINDING but i feel LA CRESSIONIRE will win got 14s for her and this be the plan since french 1000 guineas having nice break before running here i think she had enough rest and be the filly to beat here.My concern is that Aidan will run Minding too many times and perhaps have chopped and changed the distances too many times this year. I feel she is his best shot by a long way but that doesn’t always mean much and they prefer to concentrate on the colts.
I thought Minding was huge at 25/1 but would be wary at the odds now.
I hope to see La Cressonniere out soon and that will tell us if she is on target for the Arc. I felt 14/1 worth a go on her.
My other pick New Bay is out today and is 1/2 to get back on track at Deauville. He needs to win well today to refocus his campaign after sinking in the mud behind A Shin Hikari last time in a brutal looking affair.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Could not resist having a little bit on Found @ 60’s on the exchanges this morning.
Not a shadow of when she beat Golden Horn in the Breeders Cup, but seems to be an Autumn filly.
Late last week i noticed on Oddschecker that she was cut across the boards from 20’s to 3’1 for the Yorkshire Oaks in 2 hours. No idea if it was connections money, but if it was an improved performance may be on the cards. If she runs well you would presume Irish Champion, Arc and USA to follow.
Looks like the connections had the money down, Found best price 15-8 now for the Yorkshire Oaks
New Bay got back to winning ways but has a fair way to go yet to suggest he is a serious contender.
Initially I felt Minding may cope with having a busy season but looking at the races she has been in and with the Matron Stakes supposedly next I am not sure I like the pattern for an Arc tilt.
US Army Ranger was underwhelming today in what looked a mediocre line up and Found continues to look like 2 is her favourite number.
Nothing really I feel like adding to the picks I have already.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Is Minding defo going to the Matron Steve?
Paddy have her at 5/4 but I don’t think that is a good price even if she turns up, she’ll be in for a race against Qemah. She was 2/1 early for the Nassau and that made sense being a 10f race but going down again to 8f looks a very strange route if ended up in the Arc. If she runs before the Arc I think it will be in the French trial or Irish Champion stakes.Blackbeard to conquer the World
Is Minding defo going to the Matron Steve?
Paddy have her at 5/4 but I don’t think that is a good price even if she turns up, she’ll be in for a race against Qemah. She was 2/1 early for the Nassau and that made sense being a 10f race but going down again to 8f looks a very strange route if ended up in the Arc. If she runs before the Arc I think it will be in the French trial or Irish Champion stakes.Well who knows, that was said to be the target but you can’t trust them to stick with the plan.
I don’t like messing about with trips on the way to an Arc. Get them ready for the distance of the Arc is my preference.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Nice and straightforward for La Cressonniere. Settled and quickened pretty much to order.
No real surprise that the bookmakers cut her for the Arc even though she didn’t really do much more than confirm her well-being after a break.
The big question remains as to what will happen over another two furlongs.
I liked that performance stilvi and though I share your concern about the extra trip, if she were to remain around the 8-1 mark, I’d like to have her on my side. I don’t really bet too much these days, let alone antepost but Flintshire at 40-1 with Betway looks good. The only problem there is I don’t know if the new trainer would be interested in such a trip, or if he has any previous record of sending horses over for it.
La Cessonniere’s race panned out more like a piece of work on the gallops than a Group 2 race.
The token opposition came from Roger Varian’s Nezwaah, with all four of the others in the field trained by Jean-Claude Rouget. I was always sceptical about Nezwaah’s 105 rating, the runner up stank next time and Varian’s filly could not beat any of Rouget’s fillies today, finishing a narrow last.
I have always felt that the Racing Post rating of 113 for La Cessonniere was a joke. A dual Classic winner rated on a mark that would get her into a handicap? Sweet Jesus.
I have also felt that their rating of 122 for US Army Ranger was too high. Could you really see O’Brien’s colt giving La Cressonniere 9 lbs and the fillies allowance?
The ATR guy had said that today’s race shouldn’t impact on the Arc because La Cressonniere was not carrying any penalty under the conditions of this contest. She was slashed to an almost unanimous 8/1 in the aftermath though.
The extra 2F is the biggest question mark but surely she has more toe than Harzand, whose pal US Army Ranger got stuffed at Evens last weekend.
Interestingly most racing outlets say La Cressonniere has ran six and won six but when I first saw her last year the website I was on gave it as her third race and not her first as the UK websites were saying.
She is surely a leading contender. The jockey was excited coming into today and stated she was working very well, he certainly looked delighted afterwards and Jean-Claude Rouget said after today’s race that she is “An exceptional filly”
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Have you got a replay of the race Steve…?
Sorry, I meant to put it in my post but forgot. Here it is though Nathan.
http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/race-replays/2/2301/
La Cressonniere settles in third and then sits there for most of the race.
Jemayel was third in the Nassau and is rated 110. That is more evidence that the Racing Post 113 figure for La Cressonniere is bobbins.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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