- This topic has 465 replies, 73 voices, and was last updated 12 years, 2 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
I think I’ll get a bet on New Approach before todays race as it should see him cut considerably for the arc and ladbrokes 10-1 should be a good price
.They’re out on a limb at 12s now, Bulwark.
Even though he clearly didn’t enhance his chance today, it might be an overreaction. He certainly remains one of the more likely winners. However, I’m coming round more and more to the view that we’re going to see something special from Zarkava on the day.
Having backed her ante-post, though, I may just be looking at her prospects through rose-tinted spectacles.
Tempting development here with Kamsin, the German 1m4f specialist, beating Alderflug today and being brought into the betting for the Arc now at 16/1.
If the ground somes up as soft or worse and Kamsin is supplemented that could be pretty good value.
I’m coming round more and more to the view that we’re going to see something special from Zarkava on the day
Why not. She has quality formlines all over the place. Doing some quick time comps she is very good indeed. All this while her jock is greeting the assembled admirers, from a furlong out, in his own inimatable fashion. What’s not to like. Her trainer is quite confident that she’ll stay and if she does the competition is going to be faced with a very stiff task.
Zarkava’s form is rock solid and she’s potentially one of the best fillies we’ve seen.
Ladbrokes are still offering 7/2 and that price will look incredibly generous if she saunters to victory.
If she fails to perform for whatever reason, then there’s a plethora of talent available at double figures.
Youmzain, who ran the mighty Dylan Thomas to a short head last year.
The unbeaten French Derby winner Vision d’etat.
Dual Guineas runner-up and Epsom Derby winner New Approach.Zarkava has never competed against the colts and neither has she competed over the trip. It promises to be a large, competitve field. She could get bumped, meet interference etc etc, so she isn’t a cast-iron certainty.
A race for ew value, in my opinion.
- Total Posts 17716
Zarkava has never competed against the colts and neither has she competed over the trip. It promises to be a large, competitve field. She could get bumped, meet interference etc etc, so she isn’t a cast-iron certainty.
.Neither has she competed against older horses, who would have been 14lbs superior (wfa scale – 11f, early June) at the time of her last run.
For a 7/2 shot, she still has a lot to prove to win Europe’s top all-age race.Here’s the issue with Zarkava.
Her form out of not only the Pouliches but the Diane is being franked marvellously across the board. The compliments to this horse who was downright terrific on both occasions are staggering.
But – nobody knows what Zarkava has done over the Summer.
So it’s all a bit of a mystery. I guess the Vermeille will give us the idea but considering her dominance in the past, will she receive a fair enough competition for a Group 1?
Hmm. I love a hype horse, but let Zarkava into the Arc bullring and let her be given a serious acid test. Either way, if she wins we’re bound to enjoy the spectacle even if we backed something else.
And for the record, I am doing exactly that, with:
Soldier Of Fortune @ 9/2
Vision D’Etat @ 14/1
High Rock @ 33/1Will begin to just fund a little bit more here and there on Soldier Of Fortune throughout this month.
I personally think the Arc is a four horse race.
In strict alphabetical order:New Approach: I think he has already proven he’s a fantastic horse. I wouldn’t say a crack, but definitely a hell of a good galloper. He stands the trip (Epsom proves it), and though yesterday without the Duke he didn’t beat a great deal, he won with more ease than the distances at the finishing line suggests IMHO. And I’m also convinced that he had more gas i the tank in case needed. He’s a very serious contender for the great Longchamp masterpiece.
Soldier of Fortune: AOB has kept him for the Arc since June. It’s very clear to me. With Duke of Marmalade in stratospheric form, he can have the luxury of playing with one during the summer, and save the other for the autumn campaign. Even though he suggests today in the Racing Post that the Arc could be an "option" for Duke, I think that in that distance SOF is better. He’ll probably run this Sunday on the Prix Foy, and IMO he’s gonna be very difficult to beat, as he always run greatly in Longchamp, as already stated in a previous post.
Vision D’Etat: Best French 3-y-o, unbeaten, and will stand the trip. I think he’ll go to the Niel, and I can’t see anyone beating him there. If he wons in six days time, he’ll go to the Arc in peak form.
Zarkava: Week after week we get confirmation that her races are rock-solid form. I think the Vermeille will confirm this, and yes, she has to race against the colts yet, but if she has a clear run, that turn of foot, oh man, that turn of foot can bring the first filly winning the Arc in fifteen years. My heart will be with her, but my head says that both New Approach and Soldier of Fortune will be terrific opponents on the day.
Others with some possibility of running away with the 2,3 million Euros?
Getaway (Frankie can help here) and Papal Bull (if he confirms form of KG).
The rest have a much lower ratings IMO.
I would go for any EW involving NA, SOF and Zarkava.
Tempting development here with Kamsin, the German 1m4f specialist, beating Alderflug today and being brought into the betting for the Arc now at 16/1.
If the ground somes up as soft or worse and Kamsin is supplemented that could be pretty good value.
He’ll recieve 3 lb less from the older horses at Longchamp, remember. And given he was a little free, there is no guarantee Adlerflug ran to his best yesterday. 16/1 Kamsin is an over-reaction given that I could have backed Adlerflug at 12.5 a place beforehand IMO.
According to the RP website, Aiden is once again considering Duke Of Marmalade for the Arc.
He also stated that, long term, the horse could run in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Ah, the great man is obviously listening to me! I always had this feeling he was a TRF man.
First Zarkava, then Curlin. What a double for The Duke!!
Kamsin won nicely but the distances of the beaten horses look a bit spurious.
I doubt DOM will run in the Arc unless it comes up GF and NA at 12s with the Magic Sign is a very nice ew bet. Look forward to the Arc trials which will tell us more.
Zarkava has never competed against the colts and neither has she competed over the trip. It promises to be a large, competitve field. She could get bumped, meet interference etc etc, so she isn’t a cast-iron certainty.
She might be favourite but to be fair she isn’t priced up as a cast-iron certainty. Cast-iron certainties are put in at long odds-on whereas she’s a 7/2 against shot which represents a 22% chance of winning.
I’m certainly not arguing that she’s a good thing but I do think she’s a worthy favourite and the most likely winner.
She might be favourite but to be fair she isn’t priced up as a cast-iron certainty. Cast-iron certainties are put in at long odds-on whereas she’s a 7/2 against shot which represents a 22% chance of winning.
I’m certainly not arguing that she’s a good thing but I do think she’s a worthy favourite and the most likely winner.
Agreed. A worthy favourite, she has a great chance.
She may not be priced up as a cast-iron certainty, but punters and professionals alike are making so much noise about her that I’m surprised she’s not much shorter.
That’s why I think 7/2 could be a huge price.
Tempting development here with Kamsin, the German 1m4f specialist, beating Alderflug today and being brought into the betting for the Arc now at 16/1.
If the ground somes up as soft or worse and Kamsin is supplemented that could be pretty good value.
He’ll recieve 3 lb less from the older horses at Longchamp, remember. And given he was a little free, there is no guarantee Adlerflug ran to his best yesterday. 16/1 Kamsin is an over-reaction given that I could have backed Adlerflug at 12.5 a place beforehand IMO.
How about 110.5 on Betfair at the moment for Kamsin to win? Thats worth a small bet on surely?
NA at 12/1 on Ladbrokes is looking like a decent bet which I’m tempted to take on. The ground will be the right kind of ground for a decent NA run and, as James Willoughby said in the RP today, NA seemed to have more left in the tank after the line yesterday
I personally think the Arc is a four horse race.
In strict alphabetical order:New Approach: I think he has already proven he’s a fantastic horse. I wouldn’t say a crack, but definitely a hell of a good galloper. He stands the trip (Epsom proves it), and though yesterday without the Duke he didn’t beat a great deal, he won with more ease than the distances at the finishing line suggests IMHO. And I’m also convinced that he had more gas i the tank in case needed. He’s a very serious contender for the great Longchamp masterpiece.
Soldier of Fortune: AOB has kept him for the Arc since June. It’s very clear to me. With Duke of Marmalade in stratospheric form, he can have the luxury of playing with one during the summer, and save the other for the autumn campaign. Even though he suggests today in the Racing Post that the Arc could be an "option" for Duke, I think that in that distance SOF is better. He’ll probably run this Sunday on the Prix Foy, and IMO he’s gonna be very difficult to beat, as he always run greatly in Longchamp, as already stated in a previous post.
Vision D’Etat: Best French 3-y-o, unbeaten, and will stand the trip. I think he’ll go to the Niel, and I can’t see anyone beating him there. If he wons in six days time, he’ll go to the Arc in peak form.
Zarkava: Week after week we get confirmation that her races are rock-solid form. I think the Vermeille will confirm this, and yes, she has to race against the colts yet, but if she has a clear run, that turn of foot, oh man, that turn of foot can bring the first filly winning the Arc in fifteen years. My heart will be with her, but my head says that both New Approach and Soldier of Fortune will be terrific opponents on the day.
Others with some possibility of running away with the 2,3 million Euros?
Getaway (Frankie can help here) and Papal Bull (if he confirms form of KG).
The rest have a much lower ratings IMO.
I would go for any EW involving NA, SOF and Zarkava.
Funny thing about racing Colin is that if she wins you will kick yourself and your head will then tell you "I knew she would"
I’m not SOF fan by any stretch of the imagination. He won his position in the market after defeting Getaway who simply had a bad day.
I can’t understand anyone seriously fancying him to win but it would not shock me if he got a place with luck in running.
New Approach will probably do everything in his power to beat himself whichb is such a pity as he is a very very good horse.
I already backed him as a saver when I first backed Zarkava but he wouldn’t save me now if the filly got beat.
Perhaps Getaway never beat that much last time but if he goes to the Arc in top form he would be my selection to cause a minor upset.
However bith my heart and my head tell me this filly is extra special. With that in mind and the fact that the only other horse who has caught the imagination this season (DOM) won’t be around it is not agreat Arc.
So inclusion I think she only needs to be half as good as I think she is to have a very good chance of winning and if she is as good as I think the rest would beas well staying at home.
GL with whatever you end up doing though.
Colin
Cant quite see why Youmzain has been dismissed (or not even mentioned)?
Holds a clear decision over SOF and certainly goes well in the race
Not saying im backing him, but has to be a factor
Colin
Cant quite see why Youmzain has been dismissed (or not even mentioned)?
Holds a clear decision over SOF and certainly goes well in the race
Not saying im backing him, but has to be a factor
I would agree clivex. With give in the ground and a strong pace I can’t see him finishing outside the top three
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.