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There’s a possibility that Yeats’s name is being thrown in for extra publicity for its AGC win. However, O’Brien wouldn’t run it in a month of Sundays if he didn’t show alot of ability at distance in training. He’d never run that horse if he didn’t believe it had a chance at this stage.
Like he didn’t run Dylan Thomas in the Breeder’s Cup mud, at the end of his career?
There’s a possibility that Yeats’s name is being thrown in for extra publicity for its AGC win. However, O’Brien wouldn’t run it in a month of Sundays if he didn’t show alot of ability at distance in training. He’d never run that horse if he didn’t believe it had a chance at this stage.
Like he didn’t run Dylan Thomas in the Breeder’s Cup mud, at the end of his career?
I fail to see the connection between trying out a horse on a different surface who gets the distance, compared to a stayer stepping down in trip to run against the best horses in the world over 12f.
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Gtd
It’s quite simple really; you’re saying he wouldn’t run a horse in a race it had no chance in at the end of its career, yet that is precisely what he did with Dylan Thomas.
It was sporting of the lads to let him run but everybody knew our worries. He was under pressure a fair way out and he couldn’t get hold of the ground. – Aidan O’Brien, trainer
No. I said he wouldn’t run it in a race if he thought it never had a chance, not in a race it dosen’t have a chance.
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No. I said he wouldn’t run it in a race if he thought it never had a chance, not in a race it dosen’t have a chance.
Well, I’m glad that’s been cleared up then
???Well i’d imagine that O Brian would still have had hopes of doing something when he ran on dirt, otherwise he wouldn’t have ran him. Of course there’s always going to be doubts when any trainer takes a risk anyway. You’ve got to remember Yeats age, it would make absolutely no sense to run him over the shorter trip at this stage of his career without thinking he can do something, regardless of what the trainer says.
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I had a look at the betting for this and it looks nuts to me.
Sea the Stars 4/1: There must be little or no chance of him turning up. If he wins the Irish Derby I think Oxx will stick to the easiest path pssoble for him and he’ll be sent packing to stud ASAP. The ground could very easily be soft in October and he wouldn’t act on that so it’s only 50/50 if he would run eeven if they wanted to.
Stacelita 6/1: Not my idea of an Arc horse. Doesn’t give me the same vibes as Zarkava and I doubt if she would be as good as some of the colts even with her weight allowance.
Conduit: Where SMS will send him in the latter part of the season is anyone’s guess. I would imagine if he pulls of the Eclipse King George double he will be fav for this around 3/1 to 4/1. Cracking bet at 12/1 if he runs but will he go to the USA instead? If the ground looked like being fast I think he would run but if soft SMS may have other ideas.
Ask: SMS 2nd string to his bow?. He never got going in this last season until the race was over. If the ground turns up on the soft side and stamina becomes important he would have a cracking chance and he may run instead of Conduit . 25/1 is a good price
Casual Conquest: Seemed like a different horse whe running on soft/heavy ground for the first time. If they get conditions to their liking I would have to fancy him to go very close. He’s never been far of top class and won so easily the other day it will take some horse to beat him (if soft or worse). 20/1 would then be huge and could be worth an ew gamble now.
I would say Sea the Stars is a definite AP no-no for this.
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Sea The Stars is, as we know, wholly ground dependent and the chances of him competing are slim to none. If the going was good or better, and he did line up, then he’d be pushing odds-on (though his Irish Derby performance would obviously have some effect on that), but at this point in time you’d have to be bonkers to take 4/1.
Vision D’Etat was impressive at Ascot and should be capable of improving on last year’s performance, but Stacelita has looked world class in her last two outings, has no ground concerns and can probably be ridden from anywhere. If there’s an exceptional three-year-old on the brink of super-stardom (other than Sea The Stars), she’s it.
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I’m sorry mate but I think she’s a long way to go before she hits super stardom status. Take a cloe look at the race she won. The second fav Fantasia ran well below her best even if her best isn’t that good.
Stacelita beat a kiler in Tamazirte by 4 lengths. Tamazirte was beaten only half a length by Elusive Wave but that was over 3 furlongs shorter .
Elusive wave was beaten very easy 6 1/4 lengths by Ghanaati.
That form can only be considered fair if we are talking Arc here.
She beat Divine Comedy 4 lengths but she has been beaten 3 times since
finishing nearer last than first each time.She beat Article Rare 6 lenths but she had finished last of 6 to Tamazirte the time before.
Her other 2 races were nothing special.
We saw this very same thing with Fantasia whe she won the Nell Gwyynn. She beat nothing and the next thing she is 6/5fav for the 1000 Guineas. That was desite the fact the horse she beat’s claim to fame was a win in a (Class 4) (2yo) 6f race on the All Weather.
With Stacelita immediately she won the cries of "The New Zarkava" start circulating the bookies slash her odds and the sheep strat lumping on.
IMO She is no Zarkava but would have to be to win this years Arc. Quite frankly I think she has no chance and will get buried by the colts.
Fist is correct, have been saying the same stuff.
I’ve got my Arc ’09 shortlist down to 9, although 2 of them are older horses and 4 of them have a lot of question marks next to their names.
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About those 2 older horses mate?: I hear Sea Bird II and Dancing Brave aren’t running ….so now that your shortlist is down to 7 horses it should make things easier for you
Fist, believe me, I’ve never backed an older horse in the Arc in 8 years, I’m not going to start now. I just had nothing better to do so I thought I’d look through the older horses too. Heard of forecasts?
How would Zarkava compare with Ruffian?
It’s nigh impossible to compare champion US dirt horses with champion European middle distance turf horses.
Ruffian liked to front run, whereas Zarkava came from well off the pace to win her races.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
I’m confident that Stacelita will be there or there abouts when the time comes. Let’s be frank about it, some of us have taken 8/1 on this horse , and not evens, so to get reeled in by what some sports writers say isn’t representative of what many of us who backed her actually think. Some of us just think she’s a cracking filly and at the price available was worth taking.
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I’m anything but a sheep, Fist.
You were absolutely raving about Zarkava this time last year when similar questions could have been asked of her form, so what’s different in this situation (other than the fact that Stacelita has been more visually impressive in victory)?
I backed Stacelita at 16/1 prior to her victory in the Diane – I did flag her performance at Longchamp on here somewhere – and am more than happy to risk her again at 6/1.
The joys of ante-post betting
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Are you serious? I take it you missed the Prix Vermeille when Zarkava was 15 lengths behind the leader and her jockey totally unperturbed sat motionless until 300 mts from home. She went from last to first and wsn’t even flat out to do it.
Absolutely no comparison here visually or otherwise IMO.
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