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Urban Sea was the last filly to win the Arc way back in 1993, if my memory is correct.
I’m quite surprised at the popularity of the french filly. She has never raced over twelve furlongs, neither has she ever competed against the colts.
Mandesha went into last years renewal with arguably better credentials. She had previously won over CD with victory in the 2006 Prix Vermeille and acquitted herself well against the colts in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud a few months before her Arc bid. She also boasted victories over Satwa Queen and Alexandrova.
Zarkava appears to be a special filly, but her CV doesn’t scream ‘potential Arc winner’ in my opinion.
Should Peeping Fawn display the same level of ability as last year, then I wouldn’t even consider her the best middle-distance filly in Europe.
It’s simply amazing that she accumulated ten runs in 2007. She found dual Guineas heroine Finsceal Beo just two lengths too good at the Curragh over an inadequate trip after making her debut less than eight weeks earlier.
She progressed at an incredible rate to win the Irish Oaks from her Epsom conqueror, Light Shift, before slamming Mandesha in the Nassau.
Should the two ‘super fillies’ ever meet, potentially in the Arc, I’d be very surprised if PF was defeated.
Montmartre is the far better Royer-Dupre / Aga Khan candidate. His demolition job over CD in the Grand Prix de Paris was breathtaking.
I haven’t finalised my selection yet – let’s see what Jim Bolger ‘has planned’ for New Approach!
Odds on him running once more and then retiring?
If he ran in the Arc completely fresh without a prep, would he be any chance at all?
The Irish Champion may do, however.
Blimey it is only July so way too early to be sorting out who will win this race especially as it remains to be seen if Zarkova and DOM will even run and how NA recovers from injury. For the first two it appears the ground may be the deciding factor as the filly according to the trainer will not run if soft and DOM I would think would not relish soft ground. Also there may well be something lurking ou there that hasn’t even be seen out yet.
I would think that Montmatres actual trip would probably be in excess of 1m4f (I’d say hes bred for 2m+)
I think you’d be alone in saying he’s bred for 2m+. His dam won twice over 15f, but that’s the furthest that the family has shown at – Montmartre’s half sister has been performing well over 11 and 12f, and the dam’s full sister won at 9 and 10f, as well as being placed in a Group race over 7f at 4!
Montmartre has a very strong profile to suggest that 1m4f is his ideal trip, so I’d agree that the Prix du Jockey Club may not have been optimum – but I also can’t believe he gave his true running that day. Other Montjeu progeny, and other animals from Montmartre’s pedigree, prove that 10f is not unrealistic for these bloodlines, so I would never put his poor show at Chantilly down to an excess of stamina.
FIST OF FURY
When was the last time a filly won the arc, she will have to be very good indeed.I take horses on their individual merit. She looks an exceptional animal to me and all the stats from the past don’t change that.
What I like most ablout her is she is a very easy ride and settles really well. She virtually went to sleep in the Prix Marcel Boussac-Critérium as she does in all her races. Despite meeting with trouble, in that event, the acceleration she found was uncanny. She must have made up 8 lengths including the winning margin and showed maturity beyond her years.
For me she will be seen at her best over the Arc trip and the faster they go the better.
I see they have made her favourite now a position she should have held a long time ago IMO.
I still say if anything can beat her it will be New Approach but the chink in his armour is the fact he is very hard to settle. He pulls like he did at Epsom he will cut his own throat despite being a very very good horse.
DOM I like a lot but he almost had his backside felt in the KG by a pretty ordinary animal and Soldier of Fortune simply wouldn’t win the Arc if he started the day before the race.
Pretty easy race to work out really
….he said hopefully 
The cash was down a long time ago and up to now I have seen nothing to change my mind
Soldier of Fortune simply wouldn’t win the Arc if he started the day before the race.
A bit harsh dont you think? Ran very well in the Coronation and beat some very good horses when second in France. I think the Arc could be won be any of SoF, The Duke or the filly. After The Dukes win at the weekend i think he will be hard to beat IMO.
It depends on which line of form you choose to believe.
He beat Youmzain in the Coronation and the the former reversed the form at Saint-Cloud.
Papa Bull then reversed form with Youmzain in no uncertain fashion behind DOM.
I tend to disbelieve these early season races when the all finish in a bunch. The form rarely works out and at a guess I would have though neither Youmzain or Papa Bull were at their best that day.
Papa Bull ran the race of his life against DOM despite being under pressure a long way out.
I just don’t see how anyone can expect SOF to beat Papa Bull or be certain to confirm Coronation form with Youmzain.
At best he’s a dodgy bet and I would be gobsmacked if Johnny Murtagh chose to ride him. Can’t see SOF being placed let alone win.
Curlin it seems will stay racing in the US this year and owner says unlikely to run in the Arc. His next outing is on dirt and then heads for either the Classic or Turf. Shame but not unexpected.
Should i read anything into the ‘this year’ quote? Surely Curlin wont be kept in training as a 5 year old will he?
Also, as regard to Papal Bull beating Youmzain in the kind george, how close do you think Youmzain would have got to the winner if he hadnt had major interferance in the straight? I think it would have been a damn sight closer than it was.
Should i read anything into the ‘this year’ quote? Surely Curlin wont be kept in training as a 5 year old will he?
I too thought that too but the RP has the owner quoted as saying “The Arc is probably out for this year,” Jackson said. “We think he can be a turf champion but I’m not sure he has enough time this year to make the adjustment."
It certainly hints at a possibility of him staying in training.
As to the betting Getaway is best priced at 14-1 and Prospect Wells is 20-1, hardly very short.
Getaway was favourite over Soldies of Fortune when SOF won first time up. He’s a lot better than he ran that day and 14/1 to me is a risk but obviously one the bookies are willing to take.
Personally I think he could suprise a lot of people and run a big race. I certainly wouldn’t put anyone off backing him EW at those odds
I would think that Montmatres actual trip would probably be in excess of 1m4f (I’d say hes bred for 2m+)
I think you’d be alone in saying he’s bred for 2m+. His dam won twice over 15f, but that’s the furthest that the family has shown at – Montmartre’s half sister has been performing well over 11 and 12f, and the dam’s full sister won at 9 and 10f, as well as being placed in a Group race over 7f at 4!
Montmartre has a very strong profile to suggest that 1m4f is his ideal trip, so I’d agree that the Prix du Jockey Club may not have been optimum – but I also can’t believe he gave his true running that day. Other Montjeu progeny, and other animals from Montmartre’s pedigree, prove that 10f is not unrealistic for these bloodlines, so I would never put his poor show at Chantilly down to an excess of stamina.
I do not think that the horse has an excess of stamina but it lacks speed for a top class race over 1m2.5f and especially a slowly run one and whether his running in the jockey club was exactly true or not I wouldnt have fancied a horse of that profile to have really done much better in the jockey club and especially when you look at it with regards natagoras finishing position.
Montmartres half sister that is coping well at 10 and 11 furlongs is bred from a much speedier sire than Montjeu. Montjeus bred from speedy Dams (Motivator, Froxen Fire, Papal Bull, Macarthur etc) generally go around 1m4f (quite usually in excess of that) and want a fast pace at that distance. Wheras Montmartre is bred from a Dam who is by Linamix (who IMO is a stamina source) who herself) won twice over 15f, which reads to me that hes bred to stay like a champion. It is the fact that Montmartre is an extremely classy animal, like quite a few other Montjeus that he wins at 1m4f but like all the other classy stamina bred montjeus (who, like montmartre for future stud reasons we havent seen stepped up) he is at his best at 1m4f if the is plenty of pace in the race. Arcs are usually such races but then Westerner who was a stayer ran a stormer in the 2005 arc, and I have already stated the similarities between Scorpions GPDP and Montmartres, and Scorpion improved for the step up in the leger. However just like Scorpion (who I would also have said wass bred for a trip) I think Montmartre is an arc horse (if he was going) escpecially if the pace is fast.
Back to the subject at hand, I honestly cannot believe that a Filly by Zamindar, who is unproven at 1m4f, and unproven against the opposite sex, is a 7/2 (not even an e/w option) favorite for an arc du triomphe, she looks like an exceptional filly but so were Ouija Board and Pride and they couldnt do it (Pride IMO pretty much had the race set up for her in 2006 but still found one too good). I strongly suspect that the favorite on the day will be New Approach as he should prove himself the best of his generation before the arc.
Don’t buy any of that.
Forget the breeding stats, watch the colts last win over 1m4f and stop the recording after 1m2.5f.
Then tell me he wouldn’t have mullered the field in similar style over 1m2.5f.
I strongly disagree.I just did that, and then I pictured what it would have been like if
a) the pace was considerably slower (as in the PDJC)
b) he was up against the same field as he was against in the PDJC and not the GPDP.
Quite surprisingly, I have him beaten 24 lengths by Vision D’Etat into 15th (6 lengths behind starlish). Weird that…
Even wierder still, prior to stepping up to 1m4f he had failed to uphold his debut rating of 92 and his form to date corresponds with the call for stamina over speed on every occasion. In the race before the GPDP (3 secs slower) he was only a 107 rated horse. The extra 3 secs has seemingly brought an extra 20 lbs improvement from him.
In three runs over a similar distance to the PDJC he has run to a similar level to his PDJC form on each occasion.
Tempting as it may be to watch him beat a different field over a different distance from some distance from home and go against the obvious facts to say he would have mullered the field, I think the facts have won me over.
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