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I always think that we seem to ignore the French horses in the Arc at our peril, and usually have a bet on one of them but I think that Papal Bull is far too big a price to ignore….
Looking back at the Newmarket Stakes win, it definitely overwhelmed me and a couple of others.
Getaway came of age as a reliable substitute in last year’s Arc however – and if he has come on since then he slots into contention. Andre Fabre’s main play for this year, too, so all focus is on him.
If the Duke runs in the Arc and is beaten, his hard earned reputation is gone.If Septimus runs in the Arc and wins then Coolmore have 3 superstars to retire at the end of the year.Whereas if Septimus runs in the Cup and wins he remains a big handicap and a long distance group1 winner. A National Hunt pedigree at the end of the day. Hardly worth keeping in training for.So either they believe that SoF can win the Arc or they send Septimus to France .
For me the only danger to Zarkava was New Approach and I don’t belive for one minute they believe SOF has any chance of beating this filly.
I also believe they are taking the option of avoiding the filly with DOM who they must realise if he is going to be beaten it will be by her.
As far as Septimus goes I just can’t see that one figuring in the race.
The Arc which is usually mega competitive is starting to look like another formality for Zarkava which is a pity. No matter how easily she wins they will say it was a bad Arc.
You believe that NA was the only danger to the filly. You believe DOM is avoiding the filly even though he did not avoid NA previously – the same horse you think was Zarkava’s only danger.
You believe Ballydoyle do not think SOF has a chance against the filly….please explain how you know this rather than your opinion of the filly?
If DOM does turn up does that mean they believe he can beat her and that should be respected?
I think it’s a case of common sense and you are missing the point.
The reason I thought NA was the only danger was if he settled like a normal horse and that’s a big if he would be a danger to anything on 4 legs.
My worry was he might just settle and improve one helluva lot for it. Who knows how good he would be if he didn’t have this infuriating habit of beating himself.As far as DOM is concerned he won’t run and it would be nuts for them to send him. Someone said they are not afraid to get their horses beat. That is complete and utter BS. When Dylan Thomas was defeated they thought he was a stone wall certainty unlike what is going through their minds with DOM.
Right now his stud value is 100% intact and they will take the easiest option they can to keep it that way. One more win from him and he’ll be more popular at stud than the Beatles were to music in the 60’s. A defeat from Zarkava and it will cost them millions in the long term.
The only reason he has been left in the ARC IMO is that is anything was to happen to the filly. The betting alone tells me there is no serious intentions of taking her on.
AS far as SOF is concerned they have nothing to lose but IMO he simply isn’t anywhere near the class of this filly. I would even go as far to say he won’t beat Getaway let alone her.
Let’s wait and see how daft I am come the day. I would love you to lay me 1/1 DOM turning up if she does…..absolutely no chance IMO. I’m obviously an idiot I backed Zarkava at 7/1 on several occasions for more than plenty when most of you were saying she hadn’t proved herself. Was as obvious as the nose on your face to me she was and is a wonder filly.
Roll on ARC day, easiest money you will ever make
FOOTNOTE: If she loses I never wrote this post
I’m starting to think Getaway is the forgotten horse this year as well. He looked a beast when he won at Newmarket then disappointed in the Coronation (iffy track may not have suited him) and then next time on soft ground, but he returned to form last time on better ground albeit against weaker opposition and he did run a blinder in the Arc last year. I do like Zarkava but the slowness out of the stalls worries me that she may be feeling something (also the way she carries her tail awkwardly).
I agree with you on Getaway. He was a hot favourite to beat SOF earlier in the season and ran no sort of race. Now all of a sudden SOF is some sort of wonder horse or at leat the bookies are saying he is better than Getaway. Very fickle these bookies
SOF has done nothing to convince me he is the better horse as the form of their first meeting isn’t worth a pinch of salt. SOF then get stuffed by Youz and they make him a short price for the Arc? . Makes no sense to me at all and is nothing more than the bookies taking advantage of O’Brien mania.Don’t worry about Zarkava and the stalls she could come out backwards and beat this lot. I doubt she is feeling anything she gave them all a start and won as she liked last time up and they weren’t exactly mules she beat. Her tail action hasn’t stopped her in the past……probably just her way of saying "look at me I’m brilliant"
Zarkava, in most peoples’ opinion, is the best horse in the race – but does the best horse always win the Arc ?
No ( there, I’ve answered my own question ), but she’s the one who will be carrying the vast majority of punters’ hopes ( and money ) on Sunday.
Why ? Because she is an exceptional filly with an exceptional turn of foot.
Can she be beaten?
Yes.
How ?
Unfavourble ground conditions, traffic problems (not getting a clear run at the right moment ), getting left behind (again ! ) or getting hustled out of it by the stronger colts – could all, in some way or other, contribute to her demise.
Will I still be backing her. Yes. Why ? Because I’m an optimist and a realist.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Just read on the RP that AO’B has stated that Duke of Marmalade and Soldier of Fortune are both on course for the Arc… and that Ralph Beckett is considering supplementing Look Here for that same race.
Ground on Sunday is expected G to S.
If all of them show up, we have a crackin’ showpiece ahead!I can’t wait for the arc, was gutted at the prospect of a gd-fm arc, as was being reported over the past few weeks in the press. I’m seriously thinking of rebacking Vision D’Etat @ 8-1, now that the ground is expected to be good-soft and further rain is expected.
Also, for a safety, Youmzain e/w @12s and perhaps Ask at e/w 33s.
What a race in prospect, I think this looks a decent enough arc.
Looks a great race, lets just hope the entries that are there at the moment, show up, and all take eachother on.
havent had a chance to look at all the posts on this but does any one give yommzain a chance i think 10/1 is a craking e/w price and will have most thing’s in its favor or has anything been said that i might have missed if it’s had problems etc…..if so soldier of fortune is my other option as Zarkava is a bit to short for me…..
Would ground forcast as good to soft with more rain expected be in favour of DoM? AoB has stated all along its ground dependent with him running. if the forcast rain does come, do you think the Duke will run?
Zarkava, in most peoples’ opinion, is the best horse in the race – but does the best horse always win the Arc ?
No ( there, I’ve answered my own question ), but she’s the one who will be carrying the vast majority of punters’ hopes ( and money ) on Sunday.
Why ? Because she is an exceptional filly with an exceptional turn of foot.
Can she be beaten?
Yes.
How ?
Unfavourble ground conditions, traffic problems (not getting a clear run at the right moment ), getting left behind (again ! ) or getting hustled out of it by the stronger colts – could all, in some way or other, contribute to her demise.
Will I still be backing her. Yes. Why ? Because I’m an optimist and a realist.
I wouldn’t argue that the ground could see her getting beat "H" she wouldn’t be the fist or last good horse to get stuffed because of bad ground but the great thing about her is she settles so well she dosn’t neeed to be covered up.
I would bet my life she won’t turn into the straight between horses. I expect to see a Sea Bird II type performance and her coming wide and swooping past everything on the outside.
The question is: Is she good enough to do that against a field of decent colts. Like you I will answer my own question YES!! she is and I still think she is the bet of the season bar none.
Would ground forcast as good to soft with more rain expected be in favour of DoM? AoB has stated all along its ground dependent with him running. if the forcast rain does come, do you think the Duke will run?
I would think Gd-Sft would probably see him pulled out, but you never know, he may still take his chance, its possible aob has left both him and Soldier Of Fortune to wait on the ground, then if its soft just run SOF, Fm just DoM.
Agree Batman, Youmzain has a great chance at most paces if back to last years sort of form. Only possible negative with him is that quite a few horses who love cut have run their last good race in gd-fm king georges, but am certainly hoping he’s good.
I think will Ask will be such an e/w on the PMU prices (far better than his 33-1 here), if you were reading his form from france then you wouldnt give him a chance but I think that if stoute has the horse who beat scorpion last year all fired up, then he’ll have a better chance than his french price will suggest particularly on this ground. I know a girl who done a tour of stoutes yard at the guineas meeting and he said he’s always thought Ask was an arc horse, but just needed to be kept fit, as he had been plagued with foot problems.
I wouldn’t argue with any of that Bulwark, inside info (who’s that knocking at the door!?) or not. I was thinking earlier that out of the bigger prices Ask looked the one most likely, and i would also agree it is likely the PMU will be lucrative compared with UK industry prices in Asks case.
Am i the only one that thinks Hughesy is being awefully harshly treated. He has done very very well on this horse and then to turn around and do that to him. I hope if A.P. O’Brien doesn’t win it that Look Here wins it with Dickie doing the Steering!!!
Am i the only one that thinks Hughesy is being awefully harshly treated. He has done very very well on this horse and then to turn around and do that to him. I hope if A.P. O’Brien doesn’t win it that Look Here wins it with Dickie doing the Steering!!!
Does sound a bit hard on him but I guess the owner has reasons. Look Here will not be supplemented after a poor blood test so he’ll need to look elsewhere for a ride, Papal Bull maybe.
Ya so i see about look here.Pity. I’m looking forward to it anyway ..Which ever horse gives Zarkava weight and beats her is a serious machine…Soldier all the way…
You have to seriously have a look at Papul Bull, Each Way, if tying the form in with Duke of Marmalade.
The Duke is 3s, 7/2 and 4s in places, whilst Papul Bull is readily available at 20s. If Papul Bull turns up with his head screwed on correctly, then that could be good each way value.
There are a lot of good horses in the race on Sunday though, and you could give a chance to numerous entries. Looks to be a fascinating race.
. Makes no sense to me at all and is nothing more than the bookies taking advantage of O’Brien mania.
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