- This topic has 350 replies, 76 voices, and was last updated 13 years, 1 month ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Precisely Ginger, the positive or negative effect of any jockey in any given race is wholly dependant on the individual circumstances of that race. As you say backing a jockey blindly is almost a guaranteed method for losing money.
Once you have carefully assessed a race and how much each jockey has affected their horse’s chance and odds, no one on this planet can know whether a given jockey is going to make an error that would rend such intricate calculations meaningless.National Hunt racing and the jockey effect in that sphere is a completely different subject.
It’s not a matter of KNOWING. Its a matter of probability. The best jockeys are LESS LIKELY to make mistakes that apprentices have to learn not to make.Incidentally how far is three pounds at the finish of a bis race with a first class jockey riding three pounds better than an apprentice? A length,two lengths?Incidentally this thread is not about following jockeys . It is about the use of an apprentice in the ARC instead of a world class jockey like Murtagh,Fallon or Frankie,even Smullen or Hughesie.
Precisely Ginger, the positive or negative effect of any jockey in any given race is wholly dependant on the individual circumstances of that race. As you say backing a jockey blindly is almost a guaranteed method for losing money.
Once you have carefully assessed a race and how much each jockey has affected their horse’s chance and odds, no one on this planet can know whether a given jockey is going to make an error that would rend such intricate calculations meaningless.National Hunt racing and the jockey effect in that sphere is a completely different subject.
Yes EF, you need to assess the positives and negatives of each jockey on each particular horse in any given race. Calculating how it affects their chance. But doesn’t have to be that carefully done, most of it takes just seconds. It is a factor that’s over-stated by punters (imo). So in most cases is a small part of any over all chance. It is after all the horses hooves that are on the ground, not jockeys feet.
Nobody knows for definite which horses will be affected. But Andyod is right, it’s theprobability
of jockeyship affecting the horse that counts. As it is
probability
for ground conditions, trip or anything else.
Value Is EverythingIndeed, the probability that the jockey makes a difference to a result is under 2% in all flat races in this country. 98% or more of the time its the best horse in the prevailing conditions. 2% might be a bit high.
The probability that the jockey affects the SP of a horse is much much bigger.
Am I missing something or does Treasure Beach seem like a screaming each way shot at 40/1?
Lightly raced obviously as a 3 year old and if you throw out his last race in France, I believe his form stacks up nicely with many of the more fancied runners – probably better than Workforce and So You Think if you consider the win over Nathaniel at Chester.
Or, is this just a stepping stone for the Breeder’s Cup Turf in November and they figure that he needs a run prior to that?
Cheers and best wishes on Sunday
Karl
I just came on here to write the same thing and saw your post. Chester Vase winner, second by a head at Epsom, won the Irish Derby and a good result in America.The ground should be fine as well. 40/1 seems outstanding to me.
Sometimes things are just too good to be true. I would have thought if he was ‘fancied’ he wouldn’t be anywhere near that price. Unfortunately, the one poor performance you haven’t mentioned was over course and distance. You might be willing to forgive him on account of the official ground being too slow but ATR ran a feature with the Reliable Man connections who said the ground was much quicker than given. Having said that I would sooner have him than some of those towards the head of the market.
Yes, it is puzzling why he is such a big price although a couple of bookies now have him at 20/1 and 25/1.
Sarafina
Rosanara – didn’t win another race in 3 attempts
Midday – price in this Arc would be?
Behkabad & Fame and Glory (4th, 5th Arc) – 3rd to Dangerous Midge, beaten in Grp 2 & a 2.5 miler
Planteur – subsequently beaten 28 lengths over 3 starts
Announce – beaten twice but beat Timepiece, rated 114
CDA – unable to win a Group 1 in 27 starts
Won Prix Foy (narrowly) – Prix Foy winner (Sarafina): 76907800 (0-0-8)To carry 8lbs more weight this year
SP in 2010 was 12/1, that of a reasonable outsider
2 wins @ 12f, both by a neckRough passage last year, still accelerated, run petered out last half furlong
Ground, weight carried/vis a vis rivals, and potentially draw (plum, last year) differentNeither form, trends, or the substance of last year’s defeat lend strong weight to her case this year. What is expected of her is to cruise round untroubled in midfield, or rear of midfield, creep momentarily on the steel and then unleash a devastating turn of foot. Zarkava apart, that is a highly unusual (difficult?) way to win an Arc, with a more driven/grinding/galloping style prevailing, underwritten by ‘true’ Group One class.
Why do you think the apprentice is allowed a claim? The reason is to compensate for his lack of skill in the saddle.As his skills improve and he demonstrates his talent by riding winners his claim is decreased.Some apprentices take years to ride out their claims others do so in a couple of years.Joseph is still entitled to 3lbs allowance when riding against jockeys in ordinary races.I believe they may not claim in group races.I am subject to correction in this.
I dont think apprentices are allowed to claim in any conditions race of class 2 or higher. Mr O’Brien was unable to claim his allowance when he won on Reply at Doncaster earlier this month in one of the sales races.
Just announced on twitter
Declarations for Longchamp: So You Think (Seamus Heffernan), Treasure Beach (Colm O Donoghue) and St Nicholas Abbey (Joseph O Brien).
Draw just announced on twitter.
1 workforce 8
2 st nicholas abbey 6
3 Silver Pond 15
4 Hiruno D’Amour 1
5 nakayama festa 16
6 so you think 14
7 sarafina 13
8 snow fairy 11
9 treasure beach 12
10 meandre 10
11 masked marvel 5
12 reliable man 7
13 shareta 9
14 testosterone 3
15 danedream 2
16 galikova 4Entirely predictable Kenh. All three are now their usual riders, at least when Ryan is not available.
So You Think in stall 14.
Value Is EverythingEntirely predictable Kenh. All three are now their usual riders, at least when Ryan is not available.
So You Think in stall 14.
Yes I agree. I am just wondering if they held on to see if Workforce would be withdrawn. Just supposition as not a great expert on the flat ( nor jumps come to that).
There’s no way they have quick ground on Sunday. Good or slower and i cannot see Reliable Man outside the first three. 12-1 is a steal.
Anyone think 33’1 for Treasure Beech is to big 2nd in the English Derby and winner of Irish Derby.
Not that far behind Reliable Man.
I quote "His trainer thought this may have come too soon after hard races at Epsom and the Curragh, and he is likely to give the colt a break now."
Then wins a Grade 1 in America.In fairness Treasure Beach didn’t beat much in America. However, he is a much higher quality animal that the price he is trading at. If Pour Moi hadn’t been retired he would likely be favourite for this race. Considering TB ran him a head in the Derby, surely 33/1 is a steal of a price for this horse?
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.