Home › Forums › Big Races – Discussion › Arc 2011
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September 27, 2011 at 20:50 #372269
I would only get involved if a top jockey rides i.e. Fallon.Too big a field, too tricky a course, too many French jockeys who just love the course looking out for themselves; yeah otherwise I will just watch.Incidentally I don’t think the part owner in Australia will agree with Joseph riding his horse.Incidentally I find it tragic that Ballydoyle is reduced to this comedy. The Hays made sure it would not happen to their horses.
September 27, 2011 at 20:58 #372272With the Magic Sign offering the best prices about Meandre and Snow Fairy it would seem they are not expecting the ground to be riding on the fast side of good.
September 27, 2011 at 22:53 #372290The Hays pay Jamie Spencer to ride their horses whether trained by APOB or not. Why would anyone other than Spencer ride Cape Blanco or Fame And Glory when he is paid by the owners to ride them?
It’s a completely different scenario re-SYT. Heffernan, O’Donoghue and O’Brien are all on the books at Ballydoyle, and there is no pre-arrangement over who rides what.
Once again, you are posting ill-informed nonsense. Just like your peculiar belief that Tabor has given up going to the races because O’Brien rode some of his horses !!!
By the way, I am Fallon’s biggest fan but he has not been riding anywhere close to what he once he did since his return. O’Brien has ridden in more Group Ones in 2011 and won as many as Fallon. Your assessment of Fallon is clouded by a love you had for him 7/8 years ago.
You think Joseph has not ridden in big fields before?
You think his riding ability will be lessened because the race is being held at Longchamp?
You think he won’t be able to deal with rough tactics with French jockeys will bring?Once again………..
September 27, 2011 at 22:56 #372291If Seamie is riding, I will back him. If Joseph is on, I shall not.
You believe So You Think will win if Heffernan rides him?
And think he will lose if O’Brien rides?
How do you make a prediction like that?
You do realise it’s the horse who does the running?
September 28, 2011 at 00:43 #372306And the jockey does the steering. Joseph is an apprentice I believe not a journeyman jockey.He has not lost his claim.Many get lost first time around Longchamp.Who in their right mind would put up an apprentice when Murtagh or Fallon are available?Business is business.Or is it?
September 28, 2011 at 00:59 #372307Andyod,
Coolmore have shown they are not using the best available jockey. That is all there is to this debate. Family will at times put family first. Master O’Brien will no doubt get a ride. Suspect he’ll be on SNA with Heff on SYT.
Value Is EverythingSeptember 28, 2011 at 03:39 #372315I guess I’m one of the unusual people the way I’m going to approach my Arc betting. From day 1 that Coolmore acquired controlling interest of So You Think, I’ve said I didn’t believe 12f would be a problem for him, and I still don’t think it will be. There’s no doubt So You Think has the kind of class of class that a horse needs to win an Arc, and I really don’t believe Coolmore would be sending him to Longchamp if they didn’t believe that he was ready to run in the Arc. So my prediction on this year’s Arc is as follows:
So You Think-Win
Sarafina-Place
Galikova-Show
Snow Fairy-4thThat’s what unique about my betting angle. I’m playing 3 fillies in my super-fecta.
September 28, 2011 at 04:59 #372316Does it bother you that Heffernan will be riding the horse?Are you willing to put your money down?
September 28, 2011 at 07:48 #372320I don’t see a problem with Seamie. I’ve seen him riding the whole year here in Ireland and he’s doing a tremendous job. He fully deserves to ride So You Think in the Arc and I don’t think that he would reduce the winning chances of SYT albeit I won’t have a bet on SYT because I can’t see value in his odds.
I’m more than happy to see that Danedream is supplemented for the Arc as I think she represents great value. She’s a 3y filly, has G1 form and destroyed the last two times a solid field in Germany. I’m happy enough to take 25/1 EW for her. I’m also a big fan of Galikova and expect a big run as well. Got earlier already a fantastic price for her, so I’m very happy with my both bets for the Arc. Bring it on!
September 28, 2011 at 10:26 #372343Bloke who does the going reports from Longchamp is not a Reliable Man.
Suspect the "watering" is to try and keep certain horses like Reliable Man in the race.
The problem with Longchamp mate, having worked at the track for two years in the early naughties is that if they don;t water the fragile turf will crack a lot earlier than in Britain as it has totally different base to it
September 28, 2011 at 12:44 #372353Love this race!
Dont mind who rides SYT aslong as its SH am on at 7/1 EW
However, also have Workforce EW at 6/1.
Plus Galikova 10/1 EWSeptember 28, 2011 at 14:35 #372359Have runners and riders been confirmed for the O’Brien contingent?
September 28, 2011 at 14:42 #372360racing_post Racing Post
Nathaniel to be rerouted to Champion Stakes; trained John Gosden mulling Arc supplement for Leger winner Masked Marvel – more to followall over SYT and Gali, can’t wait
September 28, 2011 at 16:09 #372363well i hope fallon will get the ride cuz he has no ride in the arc yet
September 28, 2011 at 16:21 #372364I tend to agree with ginge that Heffernan will retain the ride on SYT (and justice will be served) and JOB will get the leg up on SNA.
Seems a very strange business model though to me. Allowing family politics and allegiances to interfere in a multi millon multi national operation. Its even more ridiculous as there is no long term future in it due to the size / weight of JOB. It certainly isn’t the "using the best available option" that was widely put about earlier in the season.
I notice that Fallon is using his Weekender column to angle after either of the rides. Surely they won’t let him back in after the Derby fiasco.September 28, 2011 at 17:00 #372366A jockey can’t do much with a lousy horse, but he can help a great horse win.
I think the jockey accounts for 15% of a horse’s performance on any given day. He takes the horse strengths and weaknesses into account and adjusts his strategy accordingly
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September 28, 2011 at 17:30 #372367Joseph O’Brien gave St Nicholas Abbey a poor ride in the King George. I’ve posted about it here before, but basically in a very slowly run race he let his mount drift back, showing no urgency to keep SNA close in touch with those in front of him. He was also last to go for his mount but maybe the horse has a short sprint.
But because he didn’t keep SNA in close attendance to the leaders on the turn, when the sprint was on he was unnecessarily a length or two further back than he should’ve been.
I don’t think a more experienced jockey would’ve made that mistake. I’d feel a bit better with a more experienced jock on board, including Seamie.
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