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No its not 10/1 you should never try to second guess my book.
FINAL TRUE ARC BOOK:
JAPAN (THE KARATE KID) 11/10
SOFT LIGHT (THE SENSATIONAL) 5/4
GHAIYYATH (THE MONSTER) 6/4
ENABLE 80/1
1000/1 BARMost sensational horse race of all time. Any one of the first 3 in the market could win it but who could begrudge 80/1 poke ENABLE a shock victory.
Personally wouldn’t worry about Charlie Appleby’s form, Potato. Not yet anyway. Often a strict look at strike rates gives a good picture of a trainer’s form, but imo this is not one of them.
True, he has not had a winner since Pinatubo but what about the 6 runner-ups in that time? Almost half his runners have finished runner-up who were (bar one) all beaten by less than a length and all bar one with daylight back to the field… Which – together with their previous form – suggests Charlie Appleby’s are running well – just unlucky to find one horse better than them. One even would’ve won had the horse’s temperament matched its fitness.
Never Alone 7/2 short head 2nd, 3 lengths clear of the field – ran very well.
Great Esteem 1/2 (ridiculous price) 6 lengths 2nd, 3 1/4 clear of the field – slightly disappointing – failed to stay?
Discovery Island 9/4 beaten 1/2 length by the 6/4 fav 2nd, 3 3/4 clear of the field – ran well/beaten on merit.
Loxley 7/1 well clear in the final furlong 2nd – beaten a nose, 2 1/2 clear – horse gave the race away – nowt to do with trainer form.
Al Dabaran Evens beaten 1/2 length by the 2/1 shot, 2nd, head and short head back to 3rd and 4th in a slowly run affair – ran to form.
Divine Spirit 12/10 beaten by 3/4 length by a 7/2 shot, 2nd, 6 lengths clear of the field.Laws of probability mean trainers will sometimes go through short “losing runs” when their horses are (in reality) running well. I think this is one of them.
If one horse had run just a nose better and/or didn’t try to lose… one run just a short head better, two horses been just half a length better and one 3/4 length… you’d be talking about a trainer with 5 winners in 15 runners. When the margin is that small between having zero 0% and 33% strike rates… surely the trainer must in reality be in pretty good form?
Value Is EverythingIn 2012 SOLEMIA was a 33/1 no hoper 4yo mare. Her best rpr of that season was 112
I forgot to point out on my post that my trends analysis didn’t include this year when the race was run on heavy desperate ground in a really slow race which was why a no hoper won.
I’m not expecting it to be worse than soft on Sunday which is why I discounted that year. However today is the day we need to watch closely for weather!
I think your living in cloud cuckoo land if you think Charlie Appleby is in good form. He is one of the highest strike rate trainers in Europe and over the last 5 years has an overall uk strike rate of 25%. His last 15 runners have been beaten and over half were short priced favourites.
September 2019 was Applebys worst ever month in his training career in terms of % of winners with just 2 from 18 and that is from 68 months worth of training stats (not included the 3 months in his career where he had 3 runners in a month and no winners as that is such few runners in a month). Thats a fact that he is currently in the worst form of his ENTIRE training career its not my opinion its a cold hard fact.
His current run of 15 defreats is Applebys longest ever run of defeats since he started training.
Applebys only runner Wednesday AL HAYATI trading odds on fav in the morning comes home 6th unplaced and well beat. Applebys only runner yesterday IMperial Empire sent off favourite trails home 6th of 8.
He is in the worst form of his career. Just because he is having horses come 2nd isnt good when they perhaps should be winning comfortably.This is Charlie Appleby, 15 runs and 19 days since a winner he is in horrific form even Stevie Wonder can see that.
However the DUBAWI/GALILEO freak ‘ THE MONSTER’ GHAIYYATH may be so good that he can still win the arc DESPITE his trainer.
Watch SOFT LIGHT take on JAPAN over Arc course and distance. Note SOFT LIGHT is drawn widest of all and completely misses the break, JAPAN has 8-10 lengths headstart on him and is in an excellent position with his stablemate controlling the exact fractions that they wanted for JAPAN in this test.
At one point of the race SOFT LIGHT must have been 15 lengths off the pace. He was in the worst position turning for home last and wide. Switched so wide coming for home he absolutely flew without being touched and was only 4 lengths off JAPAN.
He showed the best improvement of his career last time following this Longchamp race. We can confidently expect that this 3yo colt has improved massively again. 120,000.00 Euros says he has.Is it possible that SOFT LIGHT can overturn that gap. Better drawn this time he can get a better race position through the race and he is now a better horse(as is JAPAN), his trainer is in better form and currently on fire. An ok break this time and on this occasion his jockey will be throwwing the kitchen sink at him in the finish. He can beat JAPAN and he can win the Arc.
Look at that horse he is a proper horse I have no doubt about that and he is coming into the arc in the form of his life and fast improving.
THE ARC WINNER SOFT LIGHT
GOD BLESS AND GOOD NIGHT If AOB feels Japan is his best chance to win the Arc – which he probably does – he may have Magical breaking earlier than usual which would be irresistible bait for Frankie on Enable. She will accept the challenge and no doubt wear Magical down (and waste Ghiayyath as well) but she will have expended a considerable amount of energy in the process allowing Japan and/or Sottsass to catch her on the line.
That scenario sounds right to me.
Soft Light may well be a fast improving proper horse but Take Yutaka is out of his depths here. And he’s only a second rate jockey in Japan these days.
I don’t think Magical is going here to help Japan, she is going here in her own right. I suspect Ryan had the choice of the 2 and picked Japan. Magical has been beaten enough times by Enable for it to make sense that Ryan goes with Japan, as Japan has the most likeliest chance of beating Enable by improving past her. With Magical, you pretty much know what you are going to get. Ie very unlikely she’ll run a 128 RPR race. Japan might
AOB more or less said Magical will come straight here after the Irish Champion, he’s not scared to take on Enable again and I believe he thinks Magical is in the best form of her season.
If somethings wrong with Enable, Magical could possibly put up a 124/125 RPR which could be enough to win it.
Magical isn’t going to make up the numbers here.
potato, if the ground is very soft I think Soft Light is well worth a bet at around 200. But that link to Japan’s race shows his lack of pace. He makes up ground well enough after being outpaced, but it’s the changing camera angle close home that makes his progress look more dramatic.
He caught my eye on Tuesday in a tweet by a specialist French racing reporter who said he would be supplemented. I responded saying it seemed very odd for Rouget to recommend paying that kind of money when he has Sottsass and there’s also Enable in the field. She came back saying that she understood it to be “very much the owner’s decision”. That cooled me off a fair bit.
But, as you say he is improving. His best Racing Post Rating (last time out) is just 6lbs behind that of Sottsass. His sole victory was in heavy ground over an extended mile (debut). I can see nothing else in the field that will relish soft ground (all things considered, Enable will be advantaged more than anything else by deepish ground)
Much will obviously depend on how much he has improved since his last run, but he is on an upward curve and there’ll be many worse outsiders running this season. I’ve had a wee bet just in case. Good luck with him.
Can’t really argue if you got 200/1 matched on him, but don’t see where you are coming from at all regarding the Grand Prix de Paris. Massive clutching at straws there.
Soft Light hardly flew home, he just ran a bit faster than 2/3 in front that tired off a strong pace. Japan won cosily, with a very low RPR, having run just 3 weeks earlier at Ascot. Clearly told to win the race with the minimum of effort and not go too hard on him. Since that run of 113 RPR, Japan went on to run a 125. To say Soft Light can improve past him based on the Grand Prix de Paris race is a bit ridiculous, not to mention he’s only won once on debut in his career. He frankly has zero chance of winning.
Not sure why he’s been supplemented, maybe the owner wants a runner in the Arc, maybe JCR wants some company for Sottsass.
Looking back at the Solemia race in 2012, not only was it run on terrible ground, but it was a complete freak race as well. The 2 market favourites were withdrawn before the race for separate issues and Camelot was thrown in and became the favourite despite running just 3 weeks earlier in the Leger. On top of that, the horse that was a neck second should’ve won easy and threw the race away. The 2012 running was a freak result and should be largely ignored.
Best of luck Steeplechasing with SOFT LIGHT he will be involved in the finish thats for sure.
Yutake Take is already a legend in Japan. If he pulls it off they will build a statue of him in the middle of Tokyo. What a story this will be if Yutake wins.
Put me down for the looney farm then, his horses are running to form, 9/10 of the 15 have ran as expected the fact they haven’t won means nothing.
The fact Al Hayati drifted from odds on to go off 5-2 tells its own storyPut me down for the looney farm then
Dont worry Ginge we had already put you down for the looney farm a long time ago.
Is it a “cold hard fact” Potato?
“2 from 18”, really?
You’re only judging it by British runs.According to my Timeform trainer statistics Appleby in fact produced 3 winners in September by the end of the first day of September. (including guess who?). 8 winners in the whole of September 2019, not “2”.
Charlie Appleby Winners in September 2019:
September 1st Ghaiyyath Group 1 Baden Baden Germany
September 1st Moonlight Spirit Group 3 Longchamp France
September 1st Vintager Group 3 Baden Baden GermanySeptember 10th Amber Island Class 4 Leicester
September 11th Lazulu Class 2 Doncaster
September 14th Old Persian Grade 1 Woodbine Canada
September 15th Ispolini Group 3 Dortmund Germany
September 15th Pinatubo Group 1 Curragh IrelandYou say:
“I think your living in cloud cuckoo land if you think Charlie Appleby is in good form. He is one of the highest strike rate trainers in Europe and over the last 5 years has an overall uk strike rate of 25%”.Charlie Appleby’s Worldwide record in September is 8 winners in 32 runners = a 25% strike rate. Exactly what can be expected from your own statistic.
…And as the Arc is run in Europe – Charlie Appleby’s September 2019 winning strike rate outside Britain is 6 from 12 runs = 50%.
…And that’s without a far better September 2019 worldwide place strike rate of 47% in September 2019 compared to his overall 32%?
Value Is Everything
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