- This topic has 263 replies, 58 voices, and was last updated 12 years ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Deep Impact will always be Japan’s most popular horse or close to it. Interesting that he puts Deep Impact’s Arc loss down to no prep run. His nominating Snow Fairy as the biggest danger, and then Saonois but not Danedream is baffling
Frankel’s the most dominant horse in the world right now and nobody really comes close, Black Caviar second, but I think Orfevre isn’t far away in third if we focus purely on ability, forgiving his mental problemsYep Deep Impact does seem to be the apple of their eye and the Arc was his first race outside Japan and his first race that year since June so he may well have a point about a prep race. I suspect Snow Fairy is well regarded and liked in Japan as she’s won the same G1 there twice. I think the jury is still out on Orfevre until we see what he does in the Arc and he has no excuse having had a prep race.
Will Camelot run in the Arc? Can Joseph do the weight? I don’t think so. No he cannot.
Afaik connections haven’t announced what is happening with Camelot, I’d imagine he could do 8 11 as he’s done 8 12 before.
Very hard to pick this years Arc winner,Danedream deserves to be favourite on her performance last year and the form of the horses behind her (first six have won a grp one this year) but back to back Arcs havent been done since Alleged in 1978.Orfevre is differcult to access a triple crown winner in Japan and winner of the Prix Foy his best form seems to be on a faster surface than he may encounter in Paris.Snow fairy is tough and genuine but a rating of 128 wont be good enough to win an arc.Shareta beaten 5l last year won the Yorkshire Oaks this year but thats well below the form requied to win a Arc.nathaniel has had the Arc as his target all year and his performance in the king George was topclass,on a fast surface over 1m 2f in the Irish Champion stks he was always vunerable to Snow fairy but ran a great race in Defeat which will put him spot on for paris where he more than others will be suited to the likely softer surface.Sanois is the Dark horse,Danedream was supplemented last year at a cost of 100,000 euros and if the French Derby and Prix Niel winners connections do the same then they must be confident of a big run.
cant see Camelot running and Masterstroke needs to improve by at least a stone to win.St Nicholas Abbey will no doubt run his usual solid race but horses beaten in an Arc dont come back and win it the following year,Nathaniel for meDanedream has a good chance of repeating her win of last year as it looks a less than vintage renewal.
* Although Alleged is officially the last horse to win the Arc back to back, Sagace, winner in 1984 was cruelly denied that spot in 1985, being disqualified for inteference.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
I love an ante post bet but I think the Arc is particularly difficult in that regard due to the late confirmation on draw and ground.
The draw is what it is and overcoming a high draw is very difficult but not impossible.The ground is a little more complicated, I happened to be working in Paris in Sept/Oct 2003 and I can categorically state there was no (or very little) rain in the capital for two weeks before the race. We went to Longchamp on the Saturday and Sunday and I was astonished to find that the ground was heavy (due to watering), officially ‘holding’.
Before the big race I was informed by a local turfiste that this was to help local hope Dalakhani at the expense of the favourite High Chaparral. The local expert also told me that you could predict the going at Longchamp each Arc day based on the preferred condition for the top French horse. Fair enough its a home game.
Anyway Dalakhani duly won with High Chaparral bogged down in third. The time was 2:32:30.
The following year the top French hopes were Bago and Valixir, neither was massively fancied (about 10/1) and both of whom were arguably better on good ground. Bago won on good ground. The time was 2:25:00.Looking at the make up of the field I would predict good ground at Longchamp on Arc day.
On Orfevre, I was impressed by him in the Prix Foy but were the tactics employed the best to prepare him for the Arc? Team tactics figured strongly in the Foy with his pace maker moving off the rail to allow him through. He would need exceptional luck to repeat that trick in a 20 runner Arc. Wouldn`t it have been more educational to have him come through or round the small field in the Prix Foy?
Thinking about it…there has been a lot of talk about how well Danedream was ridden last year and how sitting close to the pace saw her (and Shareta) advantaged over So You Think, Sarafina, Snow Fairy, SNA etc who came from well back. I think we may well see a very fast early pace this year as jockeys (with last year in their mind) strive for an early prominent position. This could mean a pace collapse and see Snow Fairy and St Nicholas Abbey helped over many.
Danedream has a good chance of repeating her win of last year as it looks a less than vintage renewal.
* Although Alleged is officially the last horse to win the Arc back to back, Sagace, winner in 1984 was cruelly denied that spot in 1985, being disqualified for inteference.
Sagace was disqualified because the jockey broke the rules under which the race was run. Disqualifying a horse for a professional jockey error is a much better way of dealing with transgressions than the ineffectual method used in this country. I would also argue that the stewarding in France is of a far greater consistency than here in the races that we get to see.
Sagace was disqualified because the jockey broke the rules under which the race was run. Disqualifying a horse for a professional jockey error is a much better way of dealing with transgressions than the ineffectual method used in this country. I would also argue that the stewarding in France is of a far greater consistency than here in the races that we get to see.
At the time, and like Daniel Wildenstein, I thought it was a disgraceful decision. I have reveiwed the race many times since, and my opinion has still not altered.
Sagace and Eric Legrix made their way for home on the inside rail and Pat Eddery made a deliberate decision to veer across with Rainbow Quest in order to engage the Franch horse in a head to head battle to the line, and if anything, it was the Jeremy Tree trained horse who was leaning into Sagace. Any bumping that did occur was minimal to say the least.
For me, the best horse won on the day.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Sagace was disqualified because the jockey broke the rules under which the race was run. Disqualifying a horse for a professional jockey error is a much better way of dealing with transgressions than the ineffectual method used in this country. I would also argue that the stewarding in France is of a far greater consistency than here in the races that we get to see.
At the time, and like Daniel Wildenstein, I thought it was a disgraceful decision. I have reveiwed the race many times since, and my opinion has still not altered.
Sagace and Eric Legrix made their way for home on the inside rail and Pat Eddery made a deliberate decision to veer across with Rainbow Quest in order to engage the Franch horse in a head to head battle to the line, and if anything, it was the Jeremy Tree trained horse who was leaning into Sagace. Any bumping that did occur was minimal to say the least.
For me, the best horse won on the day.
Wow – just watched it on You Tube. You are so right. How he lost that race is beyond me!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Ground is a risk you are taking with Orfevre. Times suggest the ground was pretty fast for the Prix Foy, and all but one of his Japan races are on firm ground. He did win on the Japanese track rating of soft, but it looks like good to soft or something similar to me
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tzYHGBggD3kthe first arc in donkeys years not to be show on the box, a very sad development indeed
A great shame Snow Fairy won’t run again this year following a setback but we may see her back next season.
As for Camelot running that looks a non-starter as the word is no money has been placed with the bookies. Hopefully that means he stays in training.
The Ante Post prices on this race are appalling value. Stan James has three of them on 7/2 and Camelot on 5/1. The first ten in their betting has 140% book and they quote no fewer than 41 additional runners. What a steaming pile of crap.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I think the odds overall are pretty decent on the front 3 as Camelot is highly unlikely to appear.
Stan James isn’t the worst at least they behave like a bookie and try to lay your bets. Most others it’s a machine that makes the decision. Could be they took some heavy punts on the race and they can’t at this time afford to take more because no one is backing anything else for decent money….who knows? They are one of the few who play fair and will contact you before the race if you are laid in error and continue to try and contact you if your bet is void and loses to return your money. I’ve never had one bit of trouble with them despite having a very healthy account with them for 5 years.
I think you’ll find they will be as competitive as they rest come the day and be prepared to lay you a decent bet.
I find it damn near impossible to find a decent outsider now. Sea Moon won’t run and it’s beginning to look more and more like a 3 horse race every day.
YES!!!! CAMELOT IN THE ARC !!!
I want to see him win!!
this is the best horse engaged in in the race this year, but his jockey scares me …
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/sport/columnists/the-punter/the-punter-camelotrsquos-sights-on-longchamp-16216802.html#ixzz27nt0ERwT
Behave yourself the cleaning lady wrote that article on her lunch break
Rush of money? the horse has been drifting like a barge and I saw 9/1 somewhere the other day…..probably Betfair They are making the feeble excuse that Joseph can’t do the weight and they don’t want to change the jockey
The truth is there’s enough damge been done to his rep already and they don’t want to risk him geeting stuffed.If I were you I’d ask for a price about him being retired for the season if not forever
Glad I went last year and not this. Also gutted about Snow Fairy and also the fact that I have backed Japanese horses each year due to the fact that I felt that ‘they were bound to win it one day’. Except, that is, this year, when I completely ignored Orfevre. It’s been that sort of a year. Rather hoping that Danedream can do it again, now.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.