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While I think Orfevre has the requisite class to be able to make a bold bid in the Arc, there have been a few rumours that they are struggling to have him in peak condition for the race. The fact that Ladbrokes are offering a standout 14/1 does tend to add fuel to those rumours.
Ladbrokes are so shrewd they have a horse at 5/2 who is running in the Leger. They haven’t got a fcuking clue. I hate this myth that if they are going big about something it has no chance. They’re just accountants.
Orfevre runs in the Prix Foy. This should put him spot on for the big day.
… If I get your meaning, I am puzzled that you think Acatenango was unlucky in Dancing Brave’s Arc…is this what you are saying? how was he unlucky in running? or do you mean just unlucky to be around at the same time as those… it was one of the better races wasn’t it….?
Acatenango ran a poor race below his usual form in the KGVI&QE Stakes – as any German-based horse before Danedream did in competing in this premier Ascot-race. Later in the Arc he faced the strongest competion ever so far and had to take the lead in the race early on. Remember, there was not enough finishing speed in him for that class – only Lomitas had that, but there were always rumours of medication around him. Acatenango finished a "close up" 6th in the Arc with some horses in a bunch just in front of him. Acatenango was ridden by Steve Cauthen that day and this rider was so intelligent to let Acatenango slow down as the deal was done for him some 300 m in front of the post.
PASTORIUS is set to face FRANKEL at Ascot
and I hope that OVAMBO QUEEN, who was only given a poor 116 lbs-rating for her 2nd at Baden and not that 120 we expected, will run in the Prix de Royallieu or the Prix du Conseil Municipal, whereas NOVELLIST should better end his racing-year for recovery during wintertime.
^I hope to see Pastorius at Ascot, the distance might suit him better. Perhaps run into a place but I also think there is an easier race to be found for him than that one, unless of course only 3 turn up
I do like Ovambo Queen, since she was 2nd to Danedream in the Spring. That race at Longchamp should suit very well, I hope she wins that, but I would have thought the Preis von Europa would suit just as well, as it’s Gr. 1 as we know.
I’ve looked again at Acatenango’s Arc and I see he had every chance in the straight, right up the stand rail but got run out of it close home. As you say not quite the speed to cope there but a very good race nonetheless…. I had forgotten him in this race as always remember Triptych’s run up the inner to finish 3rd…
nice to talk to you…
One horse that doesn’t get mentioned much is Meandre and I’ve had a little bet on this one, as I always like to do something AP in this race.
Lots of question marks about all the others above him in the betting. I’m not convinced Danedream can give the weight this year…. but I hope she can and don’t mind losing if she does…
Meandre ran a great race in the GP de Paris, and he made it a run-away in Berlin in July, where Ovambo Queen raced unluckily and below par.
Will that Dane
dream
really go forever – it’s unlikely. Her rider Andrasch Starke said on Sunday after her win: "She hasn’t to prove anything anymore. A place in the money should be quite possible in the Arc, another win … what do you expect from her?"
Who won the Arc twice: Ribot, Alleged, …
Her Japanese part-owner would appreciate her winning the Japan Cup in the final race of her career. Should she really win both – unbelievable.
So a 3rd at Longchamp and a 1st in Japan doesn’t look that bad.
What’s about St. Nicholas Abby for the Arc? He was the fastest horse during the final furlong at Ascot.
..thanks for letting us know what Starke had to say – quite telling there. I still think if the going is fast, she has as good a chance as any, as Nathaniel won’t be running and lots of question marks about the others…. I think better ground will suit Meandre too, I’m not sure he likes it too soft…
Masterstroke doesn’t look good enough, I will be surprised if that is Fabre’s first choice. If Camelot and Nathaniel drop out it might not take as much winning… the Aga Khan has lost his best filly, and I really can’t see Kasampour – he looks quite one paced to me…
..anybody’s race…?
I hope she doesn’t run in the Japan Cup again, although I know that’s the aim, it just isn’t the race for her. She strikes me as having a peculiar trait that she has a spell of form lasting about 10 weeks from end July to October, but each side of that, she reverts to a good but not outstanding filly… It’s strange how her form just takes off…and then goes off…
…like a lot of ladies I suppose
The French tactic of giving their horses the summer off
just hasn’t worked out with their older colts.
In other years a win at St Cloud would have been the last run till September.
Perhaps Fabres choice to send Meandre via a different route
might just work out.I hope no one has forgotten the very smart Tiger Hill
a close 3rd to Sagamix in the late 90’s.Looking at the french horses, No Risk At All is the ante-post bet of the race for me at the moment. Absolutely routed Meandre earlier this season and has to be considered as one of the most improved horses around. Better to take the price he’s being quoted right now before the running of the Arc preps.
Talking about possible value for money, I’ll be quite interested to know where Great Heavens will be headed if she wins the Vermeille, which I think she will. I guess the fillies and mares race at Ascot seems the most likely option but it will be interesting to hear what Gosden says. She’s the next big European mare in my opinion and could have been the horse to stop Camelot’s triple crown bid, the St Leger not much of a race now.
One horse that doesn’t get mentioned much is Meandre
Hi, I backed Meandre for the Jockey Club Stakes at Newmarket as the banker final leg in tasty treble. The first two hosed in and I sat and watched him run like a hippo in super glue. I can assure you that he was mentioned plenty in my house that night but none of it could be repeated here. Suffice to say my wife thought he was a football team, because I always followed his name with F.C. so many times that night.
Based on that run I couldn’t have him, but I have a history of catching big race winners in defeat in prior races where they went off at shorter odds. Paddy’s Return was the one that hurt most as the anchor in a six fold where the first five had already won and he was the shortest of the lot at 11/8. He was second behind a rank outsider trained by Nicky Henderson. Would you credit it that he went on to lift the Triumph Hurdle at 14/1 and I didn’t have a cent on him.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
…the Arc and the Triumph Hurdle are just about my two favourite races of the whole season, or they used to be until they fiddled with the latter event somewhat…
similar also in that those who win everything in the previous 5 months or so, tend not always to put their best feet forward in the big one…. and turns form upside down – lovely !As for No Risk At All, despite being appropriately named considering recent topics of conversation here, I cannot have this one unless we are to see an upset similar to that in 1972 who I think won a claimer earlier in the year….
surely there are enough others with greater claims, to put this one to bed…Tiger Hill –
a glaring omission – we can blame parloSnow Fairy is 41 on the machine for pennies but the market is in utter chaos as the front 2 could easily drop out. Could be a few quid to pick up backing her to lay by taking everything above 30’s on offer
Once we know for sure what runs if Frankel is absent I doubt if she’ll be much ew value and will be single figures if the front 2 come out so I’ve had an ew tickle at 25/1 and 20/1 while the going is good.
Fist knows best
… Tiger Hill – a glaring omission – we can blame parlo
Well, some of "ours
" did worse than TH with his 3rd in 1998 and his 4th in 1999 in the Arc. Then that 2nd to El Condor pasa in the GP de St. Cloud. A pity that we never saw him in the Champion Stakes at Newmarket or the Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Ascot – 10 f should have suited him better.
Must admit: I never intended to give a complete listing of German tb-stars.
I watched a couple of Orfevre’s wins and she looks exceptional.
The Japs gave everyone a fright when Nakayama Festa beat all but Workforce and this horse looks different class to him.
No one could hold up their hands and say any of the home team are any better than Workforce was on his day.
I wonder what price she would be if she were trained by Sir Henry or SMS?
Orfevre is a "he", Hurdygurdyman. And, Ugly Mare, if you fancy Meandre, then surely No Risk At All must have some claim of some sort given how easily he dispatched Fabre’s horse earlier on this season. Not saying he’s gonna win, but he’s very much the underrated horse in this year’s field in my mind.
…no doubt an improving horse and seems better for stepping up to 10f of late, a trip too short for Meandre, and I think the old Champion Stakes would have suited him more than the Arc, always providing the going is soft…
Like his sire who never ran beyond a mile, all his best form is with plenty of give, and it’s stretching things a bit to see an Arc winner these days, who’s the son of a miler and dam a chaser round Auteuil…
so whatever the ground I’ll be surprised if he stays, and further, I can’t believe the Wildenstein’s would sell a colt who might one day have potential to win the Arc…and they did sell him on…
…like so many others he’s in the Prix Foy on Sunday, with a likely slow muddling pace, he might get home in what is often a blanket finish…. but all things considered, it’s a No for me…
best of luck …
p.s. just to add, I’d really like to see him run in the 2000m Hong Kong Cup in December, I think this would be an ideal race for him at Gr.1 level. Jim and Tonic won it for F Doumen and he strikes me as a similar type..
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