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Stoute has decent record in race while he has fav for it here i go for a horse who at last have his ground and 1m4 should get more improvement from him
THE GREY GATSBY 6/1
Has run good races at 4 was behind Golden Horn in Eclipse also should of won Prince of Wales last year lost by a nose to Free Eagle.Ran on soft ground that no good and i think back on this fast ground with extra 2furlongs to suit can win here.
I have to agree with you Darren.
I just am a little worried about the trip but he has been there seen it and done it in this grade which is more than can be said for a lot of the others!!
I think that The Grey Gatsby would have run at 12F more often if there was potential improvement here.
He’s never really been a horse for me, with just 4 wins from 18 runs being a strike rate I find disappointing for a horse of his level.
He ran once at a mile and a half, and to me it didn’t suit him. He sat about four from the back in the 2014 Grand Prix de Paris before dropping back to second last. He came under the pump a full 6F from home and was under serious pressure for the last half mile. He did pass some horses in the closing stages but they were all horses who were dropping back after being well beaten off. No real headway was made on the leaders.
6/1 was perhaps worth a go for The Grey Gatsby but I feel at 3/1 now, he is rank value at a trip he has never won at.
Timeform tip The Grey Gatsby but this seems a race likely to be run at a strong pace, with a good gallop very much seeming necessary for some of the combatants.
At more than three times the odds of The Grey Gatsby, I have had a very small bet on Big Orange, who won this last season. It just seems a bit better value to me but good luck wherever peoples bets are going here, it’s a contest with plenty question marks.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I’m not confident in any of these but the recent trend in winners of this race going on to win the Goodwood Cup over 2 miles is interesting. Big Orange did it last year and the late Cavalryman the year before.
Battersea has an entry in that race later this month and has the credentials to run a big race. He thrives on good to firm and has won good races as a 3yo over the trip. Maybe the last 2 winners were just given a great tactical ride but the course and distance seems to suit the stayers so he looks a big price at 20’s.
Big Orange also has a Goodwood Cup entry but this time around he is coming into this race after 68 days off and will probably need this.
Exosphere’s well being has to be taken on trust after that non-performance at Royal Ascot, Elite Army will need to improve, Second Step has a chance (Beaten by Battersea as a 3yo, interestingly enough) and Muntazah is another who has to improve.The big question is will The Grey Gatsby show his class over the 12f trip? If he does then he could run away with this but I’d say he is a bit of a risk having only ran once over the distance in 18 runs.
I’d like to see him run a big race as it has been frustrating for Kevin Ryan with the ground conditions continually going against him.I think TGG will get the trip without any trouble and I’ve backed him. But Battersea is an interesting shout by Chivers and I’ll have a saver on that recommendation.
Good luck to all
TGG has been so unlucky with not getting his ground in the past. I wont curse him with my money for this race although i think he is different class to these. Probably my favourite horse in training and i will be over the moon if he wins.
I think connections really believe in this horse to keep him in training.
Just had a sneaky e/w for the King George @ 20’s in anticipation of a great performance.
Hey, Steve, nice double with Big Orange.
He’d probably still have won, even if the other jocks had wakened up from the trance McDonald steadily rode them into – a superb ride.
Hey, Steve, nice double with Big Orange.
He’d probably still have won, even if the other jocks had wakened up from the trance McDonald steadily rode them into – a superb ride.
Thanks Joe, it’s not often it comes off but I just felt the Orange had more juice than The Grey Gatsby.
Spencer is getting plenty of pelters but I felt The Grey Gatsby would have caught Big Orange had he sustained his original run.
I was surprised so many of the field came off the bridle so early and it was soon clear that The Grey Gatsby was the only other one travelling. I thought he was coming at the right time and he was picking them off. However, he seemed to “Hit the wall” and his rate of closure on Big Orange decreased. I then had hope that Big Orange would hold him off in a driving finish but it actually then took longer for The Grey Gatsby to get on top of Exosphere than initially looked likely and I don’t think he made any real headway on Big Orange thereafter.
I feel that if you were to watch the race and see the way The Grey Gatsby was originally closing, you would have bet that the margin would not have been 2 and a half lengths in Big Orange’s favour at the line.
The final sectional was slower than the previous one, I didn’t catch the actual figure but you would think both horses were slowing down and The Grey Gatsby may have been doing so because he was running on empty.
People will say Jamie Spencer should have sat closer. If you want to sit closer, you need to go faster, if you are going faster, you are using more energy sooner. You can’t just go quicker and still have the same energy left.
It’s all about opinions but I can’t have The Grey Gatsby as unlucky today. I thought he ran well.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
The last 3 sections were run as follows:-
10th 11.33
11th 11.27
12th 12.40These sectionals always make me smile with the 1/100th of a second units. It’s a bit like the handicapper putting a horse up by 30g for a win.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Can’t have TTG as a non-stayer when he’s outstayed the winner of a decent 12f race (good to soft) for 2nd. Even with the perfect ride I don’t think he’d have beaten Big Orange who was able to up his game furlong by furlong in a truly run race. Whether Spencer was trying that old chestnut ‘ride him to get the trip’, I don’t know, and, as Steve says, to improve your position you need to speed up. Trouble was, as they all found out, when they decided to speed up, McDonald had already been doing just that in fractions and drawing them along with him.
Where ground can be made up without much of a sacrifice (comparatively) is at the start. Dropping horses in at the back behind something you know is a true stayer and will very probably try to take advantage of his stamina is a dodgy tactic.
Anyway, the best horse won. BTW, I watch very little flat racing but was surprised and amused to see the field race in proper ‘indian file’ for so long – most unusual, in my memory anyway.
Anyway, the best horse won. BTW, I watch very little flat racing but was surprised and amused to see the field race in proper ‘indian file’ for so long – most unusual, in my memory anyway.
Thanks to all.
I was struggling to remember them going along in such a defined line for quite a while myself Joe.
Only Big Orange could complain that he “couldn’t get any cover”
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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