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I know he got beat yesterday, but I think at two points bigger there is a reasonable chance that Auguste Rodin can turn that form around with White Birch, particularly on quicker ground. I think yesterday’s form is a good deal better than Passenger who looks a shocking price. He’s very much priced on what he might do, rather than what he has done.
“He’s very much priced on what he might do, rather than what he has done.”
Stoute is good at that though with ‘older horses’ so they can’t be priced too big in case history repeats itself again.
Passenger’s form may not have been in a Group 1, but it was a Group 1 level performance. Albeit needs to improve a bit more to beat a top form Auguste Rodin or a White Birch in the form he showed at the weekend. However, there is no getting around the fact Passenger is in form and improving (likely to improve again) and goes extremely well on good-firm – Royal Ascot (mid June) is usually on the firm side.
White Birch is improving too, but has a fair sized question mark on whether he’ll be equally effective on a firmish surface.
Rodin is effective on it but is yet to show he’s as good this season. Encouraging last time, but has disappointed before at Ascot, albeit that was on a bit softer than he’s likely to get in the POW.
Therefore at the moment imo Passenger deserves to be favourite and a good favourite. However, whether he deserves to be that far in front of the other two? I think not. Particularly when although it is “probable” there is no guarantee of a firmish surface and if soft probably would not run anyway.
Value Is EverythingI think Auguste Rodin is quite overrated.
His win at Epsom was very good indeed, at the Curragh everybody with a chance was hampered by the ill-fated San Antonio, he was stone last in the KG, won a O’Brien friendly renewal of the Irish Champion Stakes where he was isolated by the pacemaker (Point Lonsdale) and Luxembourg and every other jockey was caught napping and he won a Breeders’ Cup Turf with one of the best rides ever produced in that race.
Under normal circumstances he could have ended the season on one or maybe two wins.There will be no team tactics at Royal Ascot and unless he doesn’t improve for his 2nd run of the season, he’ll be one of the also rans in a very competitive Prince of Wales Stakes.
As long as the O’Brien stable doesn’t strike proper G1 form, I’ll stay away from them.I’m not sure how beating Israr is a Grade 1 perfprmance. Israr struggles to win, and palpably isn’t a Grade 1 horse. He got put up for beating a Derby winner who went off 1/3 and didn’t run again, and he hasn’t won since. Regal Reality, who also struggles to win, and is probably a Group 3 horse at best, was beaten 7 lengths despite losing plenty of ground at the start. Close behind were Mashhoor and Hans Anderson who were beaten 35 and 15 lengths yesterday. The ground could make a difference, but until that’s known I would have Passenger third favourite behind the proven Grade 1 horses. I wouldn’t even be confident that he would be good enough to finish third. Yes, Auguste Rodin has bombed several times, but you can’t make a market on the expectation that will happen again. He did nothing wrong yesterday, the other horse was just too good. The slight negative I would have is whether a mile and a half is now his optimum.
Personally, I would find it far easier to rubbish Passenger’s limited form than a multi Grade 1 winner.
It’s not a two horse race down to AR and Passenger, is it? And Sir Michael never hailed him as the best he’s ever trained and never spoke of massive improvement about any of his past top horses.
That’s probably because he struggles to string a sentence together. He doesn’t exactly have that much to shout about. These days he can barely produce one decent horse a season.
As for the race the class is represented by Auguste Rodin and White Birch, and then there’s a gap to the rest. The rest have to improve, most of them sigificantly. A likely small field.
It is not inconceivable Inspiral could run here instead of the Queen Anne.
Value Is EverythingIsrar isn’t a Group 1 horse, Stilvi. Or at least he probably isn’t capable of winning a Group 1. Israr is though capable of winning a good Group 2… And although you’re right he “struggles to win” these days, he does run to form in defeat when beaten by a superior rival… ie At Chester it was not that Israr refused to go by Passenger. Stoute’s horse beat him with ease – in all probability value for more than the winning distance – making Passenger a Group 1 horse. I grant you not yet up to the best of Auguste Rodin’s form… But Passenger is improving and if (as is likely) progressing again at Ascot, will likely be right up with AR’s best 2023 form… And AR is still to show he’s capable of what he achieved last season anyway.
Value Is EverythingStoutey never did “shout about” his horses, Stilvi. Surely that is the point. He lets the horses do the talking for him. Considering Sir Michael has fewer of the top bred horses these days, he still does pretty well.
Value Is EverythingI think the White Birch/Auguste Rodin form is already well above anything Passenger has achieved. You are comparing a horse who has won 5 Grade 1’s with a horse who has won an ordinary Grade 2. I certainly won’t be backing Israr to win a good Grade 2 anytime soon. At best 5/2 Passenger is just a rubbish price.
When assessing what rating each horse is likely to run to in any race, as long as the rating is reliable the number of times a horse has run to the rating makes no difference. Indeed, the more times a horse has run to its best rating in the past, you could say the less likely it is to improve on that rating. Consistency might help, but “consistent” is not a word that describes Rodin.
I have agreed with you already, that Passenger should not be as far clear in the betting. I am just defending Passenger’s ability that you have called into question, Stilvi.
Value Is EverythingMarket looks a whole lot different now to the 7/1 v 2/1 it was when I put the thread up. Fair chance that Auguste Rodin could even go off favourite.
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