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Can any of our Irish members explain to me Weld’s thinking today?
Prince Erik runs in a 25 runner handicap hurdle worth 31,500 Euros, rather than in an 8 runner juvenile hurdle worth 55,000 Euros, in which he doesn’t have a runner.
Would this point to him wanting to preserve a mark suitable for the Fred Winter rather than aim the horse at the Triumph? He’s running of 113 today, which I guess would translate to around 125 at Cheltenham, given the disparity between the two handicap systems.
AP
On his debut prince erik looked really enexperienced and sat way too far off a really slow pace before having too much to do and messed up the last fence. I think dermot weld is trying to be progressive with him. He dropped him back in class to win a maiden hurdle and now he is going for this one.
Perhaps he doesnt think the horse will get that much from trying to take on Won In The Dark who looked really good last time and has become one of the antepost gambles of the triumph hurdle market. He would be going into a small field to take on a potentially better horse at this moment in time.
The big field of the handicap may bring more out of him
I think Weld is perhaps more realistic about the ability of his horses than some members of the racing community appear to be.I get the distinct impression from listening to his interviews and looking at how he has been campaigning and targeting his horses over the last cuple of years that he doesn’t always aim higher than necessary.Saying that he does seem to have a better crop of flat horses this year than previously so maybe that trend will change a little,on the flat at least
Looks a strange decision to me too. Would have thought he’d be better off in the smaller field of the juvenile race as his jumping is decidedly iffy under pressure. Wouldn’t have him on my mind for Cheltenham personally.
I think Weld is perhaps more realistic about the ability of his horses than some members of the racing community appear to be.I get the distinct impression from listening to his interviews and looking at how he has been campaigning and targeting his horses over the last cuple of years that he doesn’t always aim higher than necessary.
…such as running a maiden winner in the Irish Derby on its next start…
There is a discrepancy in the level of ratings between Irish and UK jumpers, marb, on account of the Irish ratings having been allowed to "slip" by the Turf Club handicapper.
They should not be compared directly as a result, and Street of Gold’s rise was not so large in "reality".
marb,
Not a cop-out, but it is inaccurate to say that Streets Of Gold was raised 16lb for his Leopardstown run.
The Irish handicapper has him on 124, but the GB jump handicap and the IRE jump handicap are different scales and we (the GB handicapper) keep our own ratings for all Irish jumpers.
Roman Villa (who was pulled up yesterday) is an interesting example. He was a good second to Jack The Giant off 123 at Cheltenham in December. The pair were well clear and the winner went on to frank the form.
Roman Villa then ran a fair fourth in the Pierse Hurdle at Leopardstown off 118 and the Irish handicapper now has him on 121.
I think Weld is perhaps more realistic about the ability of his horses than some members of the racing community appear to be.I get the distinct impression from listening to his interviews and looking at how he has been campaigning and targeting his horses over the last cuple of years that he doesn’t always aim higher than necessary.Saying that he does seem to have a better crop of flat horses this year than previously so maybe that trend will change a little,on the flat at least
Dermot Weld is probably most famous for finding big races anywhere in the world for his horses, some of which would look quite average over here, and he is a trainer I have a lot of time for. Two melbourne cups and plenty of other big international races. Last year he said that Bobs Pride would be going straight to the top of the hurdling division, and where as the horse only handles better ground, that looks like a hard call, as he looks useless on average jumps season ground, it does suggest that he is going to target jumps races a bit more.
Prince erik however, at his best was a pretty average, group performer on the flat, is a half brother to katchit and has been sent jumping by weld, his first race couldnt have worked out worse, no horse really wants to have to sprint over the last few fences on a hurdling debut, but that was the task he was left by a poor jockey ride, however there was quite a few positives to take.
Ive backed Prince Erik today in the handicap today as think he looks up to winning it if he continues to progress (have also had a go on Sublimities workmate Motaraqeb in the same race), because it is a big handicap, the form should be rock solid, and will give weld a good idea of where the horse stands for cheltenham, where the other race could be hard to assess. If PE wins again then it will give him a confidence boost and further expeience in a big field.
…such as running a maiden winner in the Irish Derby on its next start…
True,I can’t disagree with that,and something simliar could have been said of Bob’s Pride who was hockeyed in the 2000 guineas a cpl of years back also.His strike rate at the Curragh was shocking last year, in and around 2% from what I remember
! His record at the smaller tracks and at Leopardstown was a lot better though, so the fact he still broke the 1million mark when his top earner didn’t even win a race suggests that he had some sense of the racing calenderThta race looks to have become a staying contest, there was a solid clip the five major players in the finish well all bred for plenty of stamina (dr massini, imperial ballet, oscar, moscow society, Goldmark) and all fairly well expeienced.
Psychos fall was absolutely mental, the jockey didnt even look to be trying to jump the last fence and the horse didnt even try to the jump it jsut fell through it.
Race has told us nothing really, was hoping he’d win today and watching the race back i’d say he went about as well as he could have done, most of the triumph contenders would have struggled in that race so cant be too disheartened.
Looking at his flat form, I’d be more interested in Prince Erik on faster ground – thought he travelled well enough but didn’t get home.
I can’t say I’ve studied it closely, but I have the impression that horses who travel wide rarely win 2M hurdles round Leopardstown?
AP
Don’t really agree with that Alan, they can come from anywhere- the winner today was very wide around the home bend for example. Prince Erik ran ok for a long way, but not to the extent that he looks plotted up in the Fred Winter.
CH,
Cheers – as you’ll have guessed, my knowledge of Irish tracks wouldn’t even get me a job on ATR.
Agree that he won’t be up to winning a Fred Winter, but he might be of interest over the summer if Weld keeps him to hurdles. Isn’t there one of those festival meetings where DW tends to clean up every year?
AP
That would be Galway, my favourite week of the year- you’ll have to see it before you die Alan, it’s unique!
I was thinking the same yesterday when I saw PE entered here, Alan.
As far as I can see the horse, needs a fast pace and galloping track to be seen to best effect. I still think this is a FW plot.
Best
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