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Being snowed in here in Dublin at the moment I decided to take a look back at some of last years preview nights to see how the experts got on with their predictions. I just did grade 1’s for simplicity.
Tony Keenan from the ATR preview night had the best record with 50% success (7/14).
Tony Keenan 50%
Kevin Blake 29%
Jamie Codd 29% (including a tip for Lebaik in the Supreme)
AP McCoy 23%
Neil Channing 20% *
Paul Kealy 18%
Davy Russell 17%
Mick Fitzgerald 17%
Tom Lee 17%Neil Channing only did the 4 Championship races plus the RyanAir and he offered a service to pay for essays with analysis of all teh otehr races. Not sure if anyone did pay for it but he managed to get Sizing John correct out of his 5 free tips.
Note* Some of the above stats for grade 1’s are missing the Mares race and the Bumper; that’s why I use percentages.
If anyone wants to add others please do or if anyone wants to look at how the above got on in 2016 that would be interesting also
Neil Channing only has an interest in offering tips if you pay for them. I think the two worse I have seen is David Yates and Sean Boyce. David Yates was embarassingly bad year
Preview nights are mostly rubbish, but there are nuggets of brilliance. (Jamie Codd tipping up Labaik @ 50/1).
I think preview nights are more for the benefit of the average punter. There are people on here that will have spent significantly more time analyzing specific races, certainly more so than some of the ‘experts’ that sit on the panel, and therefore get less out of them because they don’t hear things they don’t already know.
What’s that worth though V-dog? Are you expecting people to bet every single horse every jockey, trainer and pundit tips at every preview night?
That system would be showing a big level stakes loss.
No, but it was a strong opinion. If someone puts up a good arguement for a 50/1 shot I’d be happy to have a small bet
It’s up to us to make sense of what they tip; because of what Jamie said about Labaik I did actually watch his previous races and realised it was worth a punt, especially as it was ridden by a jockey that I’d followed for a while. And, it totally made my festival last year.
When listening to peoples opinions at previews you have to be careful to listen to what they are tipping. Are they saying what they think will win, or what they think is the best value? Sometimes the best advice for a punter is not necessarily to tip the winner.
For example if I was on a panel I would suggest Buveur dair will win the champion hurdle but I think the best bet is Melon each way at 14/1Didn’t Russell take great delight in putting everyone at these previews away a few years back? Asked for his best bet, he deliberately omitted the one that had been set up. Might have been Tiger Cry in the 2008 Grand Annual or maybe Carlito Brigante in the 2011 Coral Cup. He made a point of boasting about it afterwards which was the first time I took a dislike to the man. Must have been a right sickener for those who’d paid their money and taken the trouble to go to his preview nights.
I’ve been to 2 or 3, and they’re not to be taken too seriously. I think a lot depends on the panel and the organiser.
Steeplechasing I’ve been to one with Russell on the panel, and he was good value, not that I set my watch by anything he said.
VtC did a post on one of the Scottish preview nights last year that very much nailed these nights on the head, it was bang on the money, and gave me a good laugh.
I didn’t make any this year, but wouldn’t be put off going to another
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