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- Posts
Can’t say I’m as keen on Money Trix as you Drone.
Well I too am not so keen on the ~11/4 he’s floating around at this morning on the only-tissue-that-matters but it’s looking likely ~5/1 both Possol and Ollie Magern will be available to decent money so that’s where investments will be targeted initially
Happy to level-stake all three should the odds allow
Thursday
Not quite such good weather forecast as yesterday though I get the impression we won’t get too much rain this afternoon.
2.10
This appears to lie between Frontier Dancer, Eradicate and Mhilu. Overall there isn’t much between them but my preference is for Frontier Dancer given that he’s back to his best distance here.2.40
There are a number of in-form performers in a decent contest, but my preference is for Tom’s Toybox who has course and conditions to suit today. He progressed all through last summer and recent efforts suggests there may be more to come.10:40 – I backed Ormello at 12.5, a slightly quirky type, but has abilty and goes well enough here.
3.10
Four progressive types plus one with established form and two making up the numbers. I’m not sure it’s quite the chance that the 5/4 forecast suggests for Zemsky, but difficult to tie down a confiodent selection. It would be nice to see James Ewart’s Classic Cut put the raiders to the sword, but he has to find a bit on what he’s done so far.3.40
I think Money Trix will take this IF he gets his jumping act together, and that’s by no means certain. Possol looks an alternative provided his lasst outing is ignored. Also a sound chance for Ollie Magern IF he retains his old form. A potentially entertaining race, but not one I shall get involved in financially.4.10
This is a better evnet now that the distance has been reduced from last year’s 3m 7f.
Smart Cavalier is likely to blaze the trail as is his preference, but he will more than likely struggle from the home turn. The solid form horses are Rowdy Yeats, The Reverend and Belem Ranger, with a slight preference for The Reverend who has been a decent recruit to Scottish hunter chasing.
One of much interest is Devil Water who demonstrated plenty of speed at Kelso but found the jumps a bit of a nuisance. THe impression is that if he gets his jumping together he would be a very interesting proposition in this sphere.4.40
In a race where a few have a chance my instinct is to go for the safe selection and South O’The Border. He won here a couple of years back and a repeat of last week’s Cheltenham form would be enough here.
Qulinton has every chance if repeating his Chepstow form, and the other two who would interest me are the lightly raced four-year-olds Rouge Et Blanc and Wikaala.
10:40 – Having seen the market for this race I’ve changed tack and gone for three outsiders Cybergenic, English City and Los Nadis. Cybergenic is a Wilson-Murphy ’tilting at windmills’ type, but he has some ability and should not be 70 on the exchanges. English City goes well round here and in the conditions and seems way over-priced at 60, as does Los Nadis at 24, having hinted at return to form last time and another suited by the conditions. Speculative, but ultimately more chance of a decent reward for minor stakes than scrambling around for lower prices the front ones in the market. Yes, they might all end up at the back, but it’s a risk I’m prepared to take.
- Total Posts 17716
To each his own but I can never understand anyone who switches their bet because of price.
Money Trix is now available at 3’s which is a great price IMO. Nicky has played it very cautious with this horse and won’t run him now after all his hard work, if he doesn’t like the ground.
If he runs he’ll win IMO
To each his own but I can never understand anyone who switches their bet because of price.
Fist
Strictly speaking I don’t
switch
my bet because of the price. I assess a group of horses against my own idea of the price and bet accordingly, there’s a subtle difference. It’s a method that’s been successful for me for a good while, but I can understand others might see it as a number crunching exercise.
Rob
Moneytrix now a NR
I’m going to go with Faasel here. He has some decent chase form on Good ground and stable is in fairly decent form. Each-way on BF for me.
Possol won really well didn’t he?
However, the race was absolutely terrible in that his main market rival only ever seems to run well at Wetherby and the rest were out with the washing.
Last night when I went through the race I was surprised at Possol’s age. I’d forgotten he’d only run six or seven times over fences* so plenty of time for improvement – but just not sure that in a big field of tough h’cappers he’d be the most reliable.
* Sorry, totally wrong there, he’s run 14/15 times over fences, I’m going crackers.
Possol impressed me and as a 6 year old he looks a decent prospect. He jumped well all the way, cruised up to the leaders four out and went away down the straight.
Ollie Magern jumped nicely in front and saw off the rest of the field but he didn’t have enough to hold Possol. It could be that the years are catching up with him.
It was a pity Money Trix didn’t run, though I suspect the jumping of the first two may have been too sharp for him.
It was enjoyable day’s racing with the regrettable exception of O’Maley’s accident which is covered in another thread. I don’t think the water jump adds anything to chasing and there is always a risk of this sort of injury. We could easily have seen the same thing happen in the hunters’ chase.
For the second time this spring Cantgeton had a race ‘fall into his lap’, and contrary Ormello got outpaced to three out and then stayed on again as at Ayr.
Most importantly the Perth fish and chips are as good as ever!
The computer froze just as I was about to post, so this time I am going to post after each segment, and then edit. So hang on chaps – I should be finished in about 20 minutes.
This won’t be everyone’s cup of tea, as it is just a number-crunching exercise.
(Why should I bother about recent form, when it is heavily factored into the price?)
Highland National 3m7f
This may have existed before 2003, under a slightly different name, but I couldn’t be bothered to check.
PREVIOUS WINNERS
2008 Laertes Theatrical Charmer 11.1 [/color:alwrlr92] Shardari 12.5 [/color:alwrlr92] 23.6
2007 Back In Business Bob Back 12.3 [/color:alwrlr92] Be My Native 11.7 [/color:alwrlr92] 24
2006 Noble Buck Buckskin 12.5 [/color:alwrlr92] Neshad 5.9 [/color:alwrlr92] 18.4
2005 Sir Frosty Arctic Lord 11.7 [/color:alwrlr92] Deep Run 13.4 [/color:alwrlr92] 25.1
2004 Behavingbadly Lord Americo 16 [/color:alwrlr92] Strong Gale 12.5 [/color:alwrlr92] 28.5
2003 Rockcliffe Gossip Phardante 12.7 [/color:alwrlr92] Le Bavard 16.4 [/color:alwrlr92] 29.12008 Laertes 7 11-5 Won 25f
2007 Back In Business 7 10-5 Won 26f
2006 Noble Buck 10 10-4 Won 16f. Had won 4 P-T-P.
2005 Sir Frosty 12 10-13 Won 33f
2004 Behavingbadly 9 10-12 Won 25f
2003 Rockcliffe Gossip 11 10-12 Won 25fThis is the relevant information for the horses that finished SECOND.
2008 Lydon House – [/color:alwrlr92] 12.4 [/color:alwrlr92] #VALUE! P-T-P
2007 Rosarian 11.9 [/color:alwrlr92] 11 [/color:alwrlr92] 22.9 (27f Nov Hdle)
2006 Primitive Way 12 [/color:alwrlr92] – [/color:alwrlr92] #VALUE! 25f
2005 Gimme Shelter 13 [/color:alwrlr92] 12.8 [/color:alwrlr92] 25.8 32f
2004 Red Rampage 14 [/color:alwrlr92] 8.7 [/color:alwrlr92] 22.7 26f
2003 Gimme Shelter 13 [/color:alwrlr92] 12.8 [/color:alwrlr92] 25.8 32fI also did a break down by weight CARRIED, a la Gingertipster. (I decided not to add back in the CJ and Amateur Rider allowances etc, as I would inevitably make a mistake somewhere.)
11-7+ [/color:alwrlr92] 11-0 – 11-6 [/color:alwrlr92] 10-7 – 10-13 [/color:alwrlr92] 10-1 – 10-6 [/color:alwrlr92] 10-0 or less [/color:alwrlr92] Year Going Runners
4 [/color:alwrlr92] 6 [/color:alwrlr92] 5 [/color:alwrlr92] 3 [/color:alwrlr92] 0 [/color:alwrlr92] 2008 Gd to Sft 18
3rd [/color:alwrlr92] 1st & 2nd [/color:alwrlr92] 4th [/color:alwrlr92]
7 [/color:alwrlr92] 5 [/color:alwrlr92] 2 [/color:alwrlr92] 4 [/color:alwrlr92] 0 [/color:alwrlr92] 2007 Gd to Sft 18
2nd & 4th [/color:alwrlr92] 1st & 3rd [/color:alwrlr92]
2 [/color:alwrlr92] 2 [/color:alwrlr92] 2 [/color:alwrlr92] 2 [/color:alwrlr92] 4 [/color:alwrlr92] 2006 Gd to Fm 12
3rd [/color:alwrlr92] 1st & 2nd [/color:alwrlr92] 4th [/color:alwrlr92]
5 [/color:alwrlr92] 2 [/color:alwrlr92] 3 [/color:alwrlr92] 2 [/color:alwrlr92] 3 [/color:alwrlr92] 2005 Gd to Sft 15
3rd [/color:alwrlr92] 1st [/color:alwrlr92] 4th [/color:alwrlr92] 2nd [/color:alwrlr92]
3 [/color:alwrlr92] 4 [/color:alwrlr92] 7 [/color:alwrlr92] 2 [/color:alwrlr92] 0 [/color:alwrlr92] 2004 Gd to Sft 16
3rd [/color:alwrlr92] 2nd [/color:alwrlr92] 1st & 4th [/color:alwrlr92]
4 [/color:alwrlr92] 2 [/color:alwrlr92] 4 [/color:alwrlr92] 3 [/color:alwrlr92] 3 [/color:alwrlr92] 2003 Good 16
4th [/color:alwrlr92] 1st & 2nd [/color:alwrlr92] 3rd [/color:alwrlr92]Here is the FIELD
Florida Dream 16 [/color:alwrlr92] – [/color:alwrlr92] #VALUE! 26f
Laertes 11.1 [/color:alwrlr92] 12.5 [/color:alwrlr92] 23.6 31f
The Gangerman 9.2 [/color:alwrlr92] 11.7 [/color:alwrlr92] 20.9 25f
Ballyvoge 14.3 [/color:alwrlr92] 14 [/color:alwrlr92] 28.3 P-T-P
Natoumba – [/color:alwrlr92] – [/color:alwrlr92] #VALUE! 26f
Twilight Eagle – [/color:alwrlr92] 15.2 [/color:alwrlr92] #VALUE! Maiden
Samsbro 11.4 [/color:alwrlr92] 12.5 [/color:alwrlr92] 23.9 Maiden
The Luder 12.9 [/color:alwrlr92] 9.7 [/color:alwrlr92] 22.6 25f
Davina’s Boy – [/color:alwrlr92] 9.2 [/color:alwrlr92] #VALUE! 25f
Panama At Once 11.6 [/color:alwrlr92] 9.6 [/color:alwrlr92] 21.2 25f
Ballygalley Bob 12.3 [/color:alwrlr92] 12.5 [/color:alwrlr92] 24.8 29f
Airhill Lady 11.8 [/color:alwrlr92] 11.6 [/color:alwrlr92] 23.4 Maiden
Millanymare 13 [/color:alwrlr92] 12.5 [/color:alwrlr92] 25.5 24f
Scarvagh Diamond 14.5 [/color:alwrlr92] 12.5 [/color:alwrlr92] 27 23f
Eight Fifty Six 7.8 [/color:alwrlr92] 11.5 [/color:alwrlr92] 19.3 25f
Finzi 14.5 [/color:alwrlr92] 10.1 [/color:alwrlr92] 24.6 30f
Another Rum 14.5 [/color:alwrlr92] – [/color:alwrlr92] #VALUE! 33 (Novice)
Kells Castle 8.5 [/color:alwrlr92] 7 [/color:alwrlr92] 15.5 21fMy aim is to find the first two, and put them in a Forecast.
First of all, I am going to controversially chuck out Florida Dream, The Gangerman, Ballyvoge and Natoumba, for carrying too much weight. Laertes stays, because there is no way I am chucking out last year’s winner, and also he has 5lb Jockey Allowance, which brings his weight down.
Next, I am eliminating the following for not having won a Chase of 25f+ – Twilight Eagle, Samsbro, Airhill Lady, Millanymare, Scarvagh Diamond and Kells Castle.
Eight Fifty Six goes, because of his Sire, General Monash.
Finally, I am chucking out anything with a Racing Post Damsire Flat Stamina Index of less than 11.0 furlongs. Viz, The Luder, Davina’s Boy, Panama At Once and Finzi.
The remaining horses are
Laertes
Ballygalley Bob
Another Rum6 x £5 combination Forecast
6 x £1 combination Tricast.They might not come up, but at least they are sensible selections.
The End.
- Total Posts 17716
What do people reckon to Possol for the Hennessy?
I think with Possol is what you see is what you get. For a moment down the far side when he lost ground I thought Ollie was going to run away from him but he petered out very quickly and let Possol go past with absolutely no resistant.
Possol ran on well but I wouldn’t get too excited about it and certainly wouldn’t be thinking Hennessy good thing. Any way if Denman runs it won’t matter about the rest.
Highland National 3m7f
This may have existed before 2003, under a slightly different name, but I couldn’t be bothered to check.
Gerald
2003 was the first running of the race. It those days I was living in Oxfordshire but we were up on holiday and I remember the big play on the introduction of the new event. One of Sam’s wheezes presumably!
Looking at years before that it seems the Hunter Chase was sometimes a long distance event, though that was was cut to 2m 4f this year and more competitve for it. There seemed to be no extended distance staying chase regularly programmed.
Looking back over the years to the 90s the card has been strengthened immensely since that time. The Little Bay Chase used to be a handicap and is now a decent novice event. The Kilmany Cup has normally been a 3m handicap but went ‘conditions’ this season, and the quality of the handicap hurdles has improved over the years.
Low point for the course must have been 1999 and 2000 when the whole Festival programme was lost due to waterlogging.
Rob
Possol impressed me and as a 6 year old he looks a decent prospect. He jumped well all the way, cruised up to the leaders four out and went away down the straight.
Ollie Magern jumped nicely in front and saw off the rest of the field but he didn’t have enough to hold Possol. It could be that the years are catching up with him.
It was a pity Money Trix didn’t run, though I suspect the jumping of the first two may have been too sharp for him.
It was enjoyable day’s racing with the regrettable exception of O’Maley’s accident which is covered in another thread. I don’t think the water jump adds anything to chasing and there is always a risk of this sort of injury. We could easily have seen the same thing happen in the hunters’ chase.
For the second time this spring Cantgeton had a race ‘fall into his lap’, and contrary Ormello got outpaced to three out and then stayed on again as at Ayr.
Most importantly the Perth fish and chips are as good as ever!
yes, it was a really nice race yesterday. i hoped that my old friend olli would make it, but maybe it is a combination of his age, wetherby "love affair", and a long season. but the winner was very impressive. to be honest, i did not know too much about him, but there are surely races to be won with him in the future..the other ones that impressed me a lot were zemsky and cantgeton. i remember having a bet on cantgeton earlier in the season,but to no avail. maybe, you have to catch a good day with some horses…
Friday’s card.
The forecast rain hasn’t materialised in the east of Scotland. There was a bit on the high ground south of Perth as I headed home yesterday but there’s been very little in Dunfermline and the radar track suggests much the same in Perth. There have been a few non-runners signalled presumably by trainers who thought the ground might ease.
This is a cracking card with a few fiendishly competitive races.
2.10 2m Maiden Hurdle
Rouge Et Blanc is a non-runner following a poor effort yesterday. On the face of it this looks a ‘penalty kick’ for Hazeldene who should dictate, but he’s not shown himself to be particualrly blessed with finishing speed. The other hurdle form on show is nothing to write home about, the main hope of a challenger might be from those graduating from bumpers, but they don’t look all that special either. Patriot may be best of the rest.2.45 2m Class 2 Novices Chase
A well endowed contest in which Doctor David should come out best. Hopefully freshened by a rest he has the best form. Salford city may take advantage if he slips up, returning from hurdling including some evetns at Saratoga.
Astarador’s second at Musselburgh to Kalahari King reads quite well, but he was comfortably held there and his only chase win was a present from the starter at Carlisle first up.
Premier Dane’s recent form doesn’t read well but if recovering last year’s form after a break he could challenge.
All For The Cause has become disapponiting and was second in a moderate race at Sedgefield.
Athollbrose may bumble round at his own very sedate pace for prize money if anything goes amiss for the others.3.20 2m 4f Novices’ Handicap Hurdle
Many of these are going in the right direction and this looks a tough contest to crack. I’ve been impressed with Strobe this season and back up in distance his proven form may be enough to see off this field from top weight. However I could list any number of dangers, with the likes of Palos Conti, Mansonn Leda, Quiny Boy capable of making a mark. Watch out for a sneaky one from Gordon Elliott in the shape of Golden Banjo who has been tucked away in the bunch in Ireland but hints at better.3.55 3m 3f Handicap Hurdle
It’s customary to expect these extreme distance hurdles events to be full of plodders with moderate from. However, there are some decent credentials amongst these.
Merigo is a non-runner, presuambly due to the lack of rain.
I favour Great Approach who was impressive on returning to hurdling at Bangor. Distance and ground shouldn’t be a problem. Dangers would be in-form Easby Park, C’Monthehammers who improved last time and ‘Borders raider’ Lily Tara who has progressed nicely without winning.4.30 3m 7f Highland National
This is the event I spend most of the winter looking forward to, and it certainly is a otugh one to crack this year. Looking through the 18 strong field there aren’t many I can say have no chance.
Nigel Twiston-Davies commented yesterday that The Gangerman is his faovured contender. Not really surprising and I would guess the stable have targetted this race from the outset this season. He was third last year and places often without winning much. Should be thereabouts but…. T-D’s other contender is Florida Dream who would have a shout at best but hasn’t shown enough this season.
Laertes won last year but has shown very little zest this season. With the exception of Sir Frosty the subsequent form of the winners of this event hasn’t been very special.
Ballyvoge has some fair form, but there are enough doubts about trip and ground.
Samsbro is a lightly raced maiden chaser who has shown a little promise, but has a tough task here.
Twilight Eagle looks opposable on the basis of moderate recent efforts.
The Luder’s best run this season was a tailed off fourth last time, so a complete rejuvenation would be required.
Natoumba can be forgiven his poor run at Exeter since the weather was vile that day. Every chance on his best efforts.
Darina’s Boy is a spring horse and hit form at Hexham last time, but went up 9lbs and this is tougher event.
Panama At Once is a horse I marked down as a possible for this event. He ahsn’t tried a right-handed track and his jumping needs to hold up in the big field.
Ballygalley Bob has every chance on his best form, particularly his Warwick win but he’s difficult to predict.
Tony Martin sends over Millanymare and generally dioesn’t waste entries but there are others with better profiles.
Airhill Lady stayed on over 3 miles on her chasing debut last tmie, but surely doesn’t have the experience to cope with the hustle-bustle here.
Scarvagh Diamond is one I liked as a novice and she is hinting at a return to form, but would need to prove her stamina.
Eight Fifty Six does stay well but overall profile isn’t inspiring.
Finzi was below form in this last year, and has been running moderately this season but he’s the sort who could get involved on a going day.
If Another Rum performs to type he will pass a few late on to finish about fifth or sixth. He often takes little interest early then runs on late.
Gordon Elliott is in decent form and sends Kells Castle who is untried at extreme distances. His trainer knows what he’s doing and it would be no surprise if this one got involved.Right, having put myself off most of the field I now haven’t a clue what my selection should be but I’ll go for a shortlist of Panama At Once, Finzi and Kells Castle.
5.00 2m 4f Novices’ Handicap Chase
Another competitve event.
Et Maintenant has been in form but seems a bit high in the weights now.
Not far enough for Doc Row.
Guns And Butter has ‘no extra’ as a comment from three consecutive runs which sums up the problem.
Main contenders to my mind are Golden Child, First Boy, Sotovik and Sammy Spiderman.
The going may be a problem for Sammy Spiderman though he has yet to run on ground this fast.
Given the likely market I favour First Boy as the value over Golden Child.5.30 2m NH FLat
I normally take a look at these in the paddock before drawing any conclusions. A couple of interesting newcomers, but Russian War’s C/D form looks solid and I take him as the selection with General Miller and obvious danger.
Claude Carter improved from first run to second but has to find a little more.- Total Posts 17716
Great summary Rob but it looks a very trappy card to me.
Unlike you I am taking on Doctor David though. I thinks he’s a nice horse but his best form is definitely when there is cut in the ground. He did win on good ground but that race became a non event with the early departure of French Opera.
The booking of Brian Geraghty catches the eye and on this Ground Salford City is a totally different horse. I think you’ll find he’ll take off from a fair way out and apply the pressure early. I have severe doubt if Doctor David or any the others will be able to keep tabs on him on this ground and expect him to win easily.
I also think he’ll start fav so I am grabbing the best price I can.
Hope to hell it didn’t rain cats and dogs last night
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