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Good card at Perth today…lets see if we can sort a few out! Good, good to firm ground.
2.10 , 2m maiden hurdle
16 runner maiden not an obvious betting race but there are some interesting runners. A maiden on the second last day of the season can be a bit strange – one of these is going to lose their novice status for next season. The rules do allow the winner to compete as a novice until October so a summer jumper may not find it unappealing to win. Hazeldene is the obvious place to start. Front runner will be suited by track & ground & he holds reasonable form in handicaps running off 108. The best of those runs was in a very decent race at right handed, fast ground Musselburgh. Sometimes makes minor errors but he has a lot in his favour here. PrinceTam’ s only real form came last time but that was in a falsely run 5 runner race. Special Flight & Rolecarr are two others with smatterings of hurdle form but seemingly nothing as good as Hazeldene. There is little of interest in the form of the others with hurdles experience. Of the bumper horses making their hurdles debut, Give us a Gander is interesting. He ran very well on his racecourse debut finishing 2nd this time last year. 2 bumper runs since have not been as good . He will probably be better for decent ground and so may be worth a look. Patriot was 2nd to a very decent bumper horse last time but hung left in doing so…may not enjoy right handed Perth. That comment could easily apply to National heritage though.
Selection; can’t see beyond the short priced fav Hazeldene. Give us a Gander for the forecast?
2.45 2m novice chase
Just 6 runners but a good quality field. Doctor David has outstanding form having beaten Kalahari King this term…though soft conditions suited him or rather did not suit KK. Connections are adamant that Doctor David handles decent ground & he was due to run at Aintree against KK but dug his heels in & was withdrawn. He has done that before and so he is a risky proposition – will he start & if he doesn’t will he be withdrawn before or after coming under orders? He has solid form ,particularly in small fields but I am not sure that ground will suit him today. Premier Dane has 2 course wins to his credit. He clearly handles Perth & won’t mind the ground. He jumped poorly at Aintree last time & was well beaten. Today’s conditions will show him in a better light, though he has masses to find at the weights. Astarador has been keeping good company this season & has some useful bits of form. However, I think that he needs further & softer. All for the Cause has often looked like getting involved in races only to fade or make mistakes. Not convinced that he has fully matured mentally yet. Athollbrose is out of its depth. Salford City was a classy hurdler & has shown promise over fences without reaching the same heights. He has won a novice chase on quick ground at this trip & been 2nd in one over further. Conditions will suit today & he has a hurdle race in March which should have improved him fitness wise – his first run for 7 months. Tongue tie & blinkers not a big worry – he ran well in same in a G1 Punchestown hurdle.
Selection: I definitely oppose Doctor David and the Perth form of Premier Dane leads me to select that one rather than Salford City.
3.20 2m4f Novice handicap hurdle
15 runners (1 non runner…aaarghh!).
All of Strobes runs have been at Musselburgh. That suggests that he needs either good ground, a right handed track or both. He gets those here. His form is generally progressive & he won off a mark of 100. He is on 109 today & the booking of a 10lb claimer suggests they think he can be competitive off around 100. The form of his win has worked out & he is interesting. Panthera Leo looks to have had physical problems. Ifandbutwhy and Golden Banjo both look capable enough but the former fell last time at Newcastle & the latter looks a shade high in the weights based on what he has achieved. Quiny Boy is along way from home(Pipe)! He has good consistent form & looks well treated on 105. He ran well here in September so track suits, going & trip look suitable. He has a lot going for him. Mansonn Leda has some promising form in novice races & goes handicapping today. Handicapper doesn’t look to have taken too many chances though & she races off a mark similar to previous winner Quiny Boy. Mad Moose instantly appeals due to connections. Moreover he has progressive form & looks a likely candidate for improvement, though he may need a bit further. Dancing Mist & Coppers Gold look held (though the latter will probably improve for decent ground and a step up in trip). Simple Jim is another in form & seemingly well handicapped. Seven is Lucky is a Monteith trained ex Pipe hors, having his first run for a while, at Perth. If there is market support he may be worth a look. He ran well here last time over 3m, looking like today’s 2m4f would suit better. Palos Conti won at Fakenham last time & runs under a penalty here with an obvious chance. Chief Scout looks to be held at this level. Putitawayforayear has shown little but now goes handicapping. Heez a Steel has been running well for conditional/amateur riders and he looks more than capable of landing a race like this. He is still a maiden though and that has to be a worry. He ran very well last time when 2nd & the winner has won again since.Selection: Very tight handicap this. Plenty with chances but I will take a gamble on Heez a Steel each way. Strobe & Quiny Boy others to consider.
3.55 3m3f handicap hurdle
The bottom 3 look very much held. That leaves just 7 runners. Easby Park consistently places & did so again last week at Ayr (2nd but was held in 3rd when leader pulled up lame). He won’t mind the ground but he looks just held off his current 120 mark. Stagecoach Opal has fallen the last twice & is perhaps best avoided until returning to sound jumping ways. Scots Dragoon runs for a trainer/owner combo that often run here…not sure that they are ever that successful here though. He looks out of form. Cmonthehammers makes his handicap debut off 114. He won last time in a weak race & it’s likely that the step up in trip will suit… in form connections clearly think it will. Mr Preacher Man has dropped to his winning mark of 109. However, he has done so after a sequence of unreliable performances. Solway Minstrel will get the trip alright but looked to be lacking a bit of form & fitness last time. Lily Tara was winning this time last year off a mark of 86 & so 105 looks high enough at first sight. However, she has been running well at around that mark & her form stacks up nicely.Selection: NTDs horse will have plenty of support but I really like the look of Lily Tara .
4.30 3m7f Highland National – a nice prize but plenty of these seem to have issues of one type or another.
Florida Dream – unseated last time and pulled up before that. Should stay ok but doesn’t look to be an obvious top weight for this. Laertes looks badly out of form. The Gangerman stays very well and looked smart and progressive in the autumn but out of form last twice, but now approaching his winning mark. Ballyvoge is not an obvious stayer & Natoumba looks moody at times. Twilight Eagle has shown form to warrant a second look in this, though he probably needed some rain. The Luder has been very much out of form for a while, unlike Darinas Boy. He won last time & stays well from the front. This is his time of year & yard seem in reasonable form. Gone up 9lb for his win but this is not the strongest race in the world. Chances. Samsbro is similar – good form last time, will handle ground, trip no problem & front running style a plus here. Panama at Once his in form & stays but is another who would probably need a bit of rain.Ballygalley Bob was unlucky to unseat last time (hampered) and prior to that had decent form. Should handle trip ,ground & right handed track. I like him.Scarvagh Diamond is a horse that has been doing ok whilst here handicap mark has fallen. On just 99 now, she can be competitive here . Kells Castle runs off a low weight for a good trainer but his chance is not obvious (not to me anyway!). Millyanmare is the other Irish raider & whilst its not out of the question that he is well handicapped, again it takes quite a leap of faith to side with him based on recent evidence. Airhill Lady is probably pick of the rest in that she is open to improvement.Selection – Not a great looking race for the pot. I think that this is between Samsbro & Darinas Boy with the slight preference for the Dartnall horse.
Going back to the Festival Chase (Kilmany Cup) (Possol’s race) , I was interested to read in the Racing Post on Tuesday, that the BHA had asked Perth to make it a Conditions race.
It is nice to know that there is someone at the BHA who is proactive in trying to improve the Racing Programme. (Race Planning Cttee?)
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Hopefully there always will be Gerald. I would like to see a lot more sponsorship there and better races although they are already doing a terrific job considering it’s location.
My fondest memories in racing have come from attending Perth. It’s a real racegoers course and there isn’t a friendlier or better run one in the country.
Laertes
Ballygalley Bob
Another Rum6 x £5 combination Forecast
6 x £1 combination Tricast.Okay, okay, maybe I’ll get round to doing some level-stake singles next time.
I was thinking the system might need a bit of fine-tuning, but it won’t be able to cope with Kells Castle, so for the time being, I’ll leave it as it is. I like the idea of winding other people up by not doing any form studying whatsoever.
When I went into William Hills at lunchtime, Another Rum had come in to 14/1 from 20/1, so I was hoping it would do a bit better than immediately getting tailed off, and eventually PU.
The RP Spotlight was by JN [edit: Jonathan Neesom], and I think I’ll take a bit of notice of what he writes about Staying H’cap Chases in future.
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What a brilliant recovery from Brian Geraghty today on Salford City at the first fence. I really thought he had gone and how hemanaged to stay on beats the hell out of me
My heart was in my mouth but luckily the race panned out exactly like I said it would plus he was backed in from 11/4 into 7/4 fav as predicted.
That’s 2 winners from 2 piggy bank bets since Cheltenham.
Well done Fist.
Some real classics in my preview including stating "Laertes is badly out of form" & questioning how successful the Ponsonby/Henderson team have been at Perth just before they notch a double!
Doh.A few random musings on the day……
Hazeldene won the first because the team got the tactics right. I’m not sure there was another gear in the bag, but he had gone clear by the home trun. The second pulled up here on Wednesday which sums the form up.
Salford City forged clear from three out. Doctor David ran an honest race in second but wasn’t sharp enough on the day.
Strobe went out like a light after the sixth in the novices handicap hurdle and must surely have had problem. Mad Moose looked sure to win until about three strides from the last when it was clear he wasn’t meeting it right. He landed flat footed couldn’t get going quick enough and Dancing Mist got up. Amazing how many in the crowd, particularly those who lost money on Mad Moose, could have ridden a better race than P J Brennan. Mind you, a few of them might have struggled to make the weight…or even double the weight! Good race though.
Laertes won the Highland National in similar style to last April, moving up to the leaders on the final circuit and then galloping on from six out. The runners were strung out round Perthshire on the final circuit. It was clear from the start that the leaders were going way too quick and it gave the sulkers such as Another Rum and Finzi a good excuse to hang around at the back. Panama At Once was another to take very little interest. Kells Castle’s run must be an encouragement to Gordon Elliott as he had no problem with the extreme distance.
Golden Child deposited his rider at the first in the novice handicap chase and then proceeded to do 3 and a quarter laps of the track, stopping some of us on the inside of the track from getting back to the stands for 10 minutes.
Crowd was an impressive 5,100 which we are told was a best for the Friday of the Festival in its 20 year history.
Full review of the three day meeting will appear in North’s Notes over the weekend, with a quick summary of the season.
Rob
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