Perplexed

[Ken(West Derby)]

Last week, on ATR, I heard a bookie being interviewed about the expected opening price of a favourite. I think he stated that it would probably open about 6/4 but he would be willing to take bets at that price because earlier that day he’d backed it on the exchanges at 5/2, so whatever happened he’d still be in front. As a run of the mill gambler, I just find it at odds with what I thought I knew about bookies. I never imagined previously that bookies back horses at longer odds prior to taking any bets themselves, in order to cover any payouts they may later incur. So does that mean that the prices that people first see in the betting shops are already deflated because bookies are having first crack at the odds? Has it always been this way or is it more prevalent since the exchanges came into being, please?

[rory]

Last week, on ATR, I heard a bookie being interviewed about the expected opening price of a favourite. I think he stated that it would probably open about 6/4 but he would be willing to take bets at that price because earlier that day he’d backed it on the exchanges at 5/2, so whatever happened he’d still be in front. As a run of the mill gambler, I just find it at odds with what I thought I knew about bookies. I never imagined previously that bookies back horses at longer odds prior to taking any bets themselves, in order to cover any payouts they may later incur. So does that mean that the prices that people first see in the betting shops are already deflated because bookies are having first crack at the odds? Has it always been this way or is it more prevalent since the exchanges came into being, please?

Just because the bookie backs something at 5/2, it doesn’t mean that he can lay it at a shorter price later; it’s a judgement call. He isn’t taking advantage, merely taking a view. If they bet to 115% at midday and to 110% five minutes from the off, it doesn’t take a genius to work out that the net prices on the field are better value at the latter stage. You can’t steal value from the market as the overall prices still need to tally. On the other hand, if you’ve done your research as a bookmaker and can find value in the early market then you should take advantage of that.

[Ken(West Derby)]

Thanks Rory. Now I know why I so detested logarithms and latin at school. Er hat es ihr besorgt

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