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[u:jom1im78][b:jom1im78]Pattern Race Review: Volume 3[/b:jom1im78][/u:jom1im78]
The totescoop6 Elite Hurdle was won in authoritative fashion by Celestial Halo from Mamlook and the Champion Hurdle runner-up is now trading at 10.0 on Betfair for this season’s renewal. Whether he had to improve in order to hand out a ten length beating to David Pipe’s Cesarewitch second is the crucial question in determining the merit of this win and it’s more than possible that a repeat of the Cheltenham run was sufficient, with Whiteoak (arguably) and Blue Bajan undeniably below par. It’s true that Mamlook has improved on the flat of late and it’s not illogical that he will carry that improvement over to hurdles. It will be interesting to see what the handicapper does to his mark, and whether he is capable of mixing it off top weight in handicaps like the December H’cap at Sandown on Tingle Creek day or the Ladbroke at Ascot a fortnight later, the ratings ceiling for which is 150. If he can be competitive, it will reflect very well on his Wincanton conqueror. Either way, Celestial Halo is a major challenger for the two mile crown in four months time.
If Celestial Halo’s win gave us the day’s firecracker, then the totetentofollow Rising Stars Novices’ Chase was rather a damp squib by comparison. The defection of Kangaroo Court was the first disappointment but the abject jumping display of Bakbenscher and untimely departure of the normally sound jumping Gullible Gordon, robbed the race of much of its meaning long before Red Admiral crossed the line. The winner, in fairness to him, jumped with alacrity throughout and seemed to really enjoy himself. He paid a handsome compliment to Kangaroo Court who had outsprinted him from the second last at Cheltenham’s Showcase meeting and therefore enhanced his reputation in absentia. I’m still concerned about Gullible Gordon, who jumps beautifully when allowed his own way but badly misjudged the thirteenth fence when coming under the merest semblance of a challenge. He has now traded 1.34 or shorter seven times in just ten outings, yet has managed to win just twice. He’s a horse I will continue to oppose in running until he proves he can respond to pressure. Bakbenscher jumped atrociously throughout, and simply doesn’t get his hocks underneath him. It will take a monumental re-school to correct his errant technique and I would prefer to see him return to hurdles where he remains feasibly weighted. If he runs over fences again within the next few weeks, he’ll be one to be wary of, and a definite lay at a track with stiff fences such as this.
The Badger Ales Chase provided a great spectacle for fans of bold front running chasers, with Ellerslie George putting in a flawless and often breathtaking display. The only downside was his colour, as he brought back memories of the great Desert Orchid winging these same Wincanton fences. Robbie Henderson has precious little experience of jumping regulation fences but has developed a wonderful rapport with his father’s chaser and did absolutely nothing wrong here. The partnership will win again, especially on tracks like this, seemingly suited by going right handed for the first time for new connections who have eked out a fair bit of improvement from him. It was a day to remember for trainer Nick Mitchell who also landed the feature at Down Royal with The Listener.
Pattern Race Focus: Volume 4, Part 1
The Open Meeting at Cheltenham has blossomed in recent seasons into a mid-season mini festival (yes it really is the middle of the jump season, honest!) and the three days feature nine pattern contests starting with the Sharp Novices’ Hurdle on Friday. There should be some early pointers to the big meeting in March and this corresponding meeting in 2008 produced four Festival winners – American Trilogy, Garde Champetre, Andytown and Imperial Commander, as well as a hatful of placed horses. Here’s part one of the weekend’s big race preview:
The Sharp Novices’ Hurdle is a tricky contest with a number of contenders holding similar claims without any appearing to be stars in the making. Cootehill is easily the most experienced of these, having his second season and his fifteenth race over timber and it’s eminently possible that his ringcraft alone will prove too much for his less battle hardened rivals, who include last year’s Weatherby’s Champion Bumper runner-up Some Present. It’s doubtful whether the Nigel Twiston-Davies runner would appreciate much easing of the ground however, and with rain around, I’d prefer to look elsewhere. Some Present must be respected on his bumper form and his defeat by Sweeps Hill last time came in a farcical affair, but he did make to duck out at the second and that tempers confidence in his attitude to a degree. Paul Nicholls’ Tito Bustillo could be anything and neither Secret Dancer nor William Hogarth can be ruled out in terms of form. The first named may be allowed to go off a fair bit bigger than his forecast price of 16/1 and he would make each-way appeal if that’s the case.
The Paddy Power Gold Cup on Saturday looks one of the more open renewals in recent memory and few of the twenty declared runners can be written off in handicapping terms. On the other hand, with the rain currently belting down here in Cheltenham (no expense spared by your correspondent), a number of the better fancied runners look likely to be inconvenienced by the ground, especially Poquelin, who won under Ruby Walsh at the Showcase on good to firm. Others who would have appealed much more on a decent surface are Tarotino, Hold ‘Em and From Dawn To Dusk. Horses in the field who would positively relish very soft ground at this trip are Ballyfitz, Tranquil Sea, Il Duce and topweight Our Vic. There has been support for the first two mentioned and it’s doubtful whether much value remains at the new prices. It’s possible that one of the other two could provide an each way bet though, especially as they are trading at inflated odds. Il Duce has been placed in this event in both 2007 and 2008 for Alan King, but will be ignored by many who know little about his new trainer Renee Robeson. Despite the fact that she has trained with some success for many years, It’s still common for her to be incorrectly referred to as Pauline Robson. For that reason alone, Il Duce is liable to be ignored in his bid to improve his admirable race record, and while he is likely to find one or two better handicapped, he can hit the frame once more at inflated odds. He’s currently available to back at 60 on Betfair and could conceivably trade much higher. Back him small for a win and bigger in the place market, where I expect him to trade at a double figure price at some stage before the off. For those who want to follow Ruby Walsh in the race, I would strongly advise against backing Poquelin who he is booked to ride. It’s very likely that he will switch to the soft ground loving Tatenen with his original mount either going to Christian Williams, or more likely, withdrawn.
On the last bit Rory, they’re not allowed to swap jockeys, are they? Poquelin would have to be withdrawn, so Ruby backers will get their money back if they go for the 16/1.
edit: if Poquelin was withdrawn, Ruby might get the ride on Northern Alliance. I’m not so sure that the jump jockeys are so ruthless as the ones on the Flat though.
Part two of the Open Preview (apologies for the delay):
http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing … 31109.html
Followed by a two part review:
On the last bit Rory, they’re not allowed to swap jockeys, are they? Poquelin would have to be withdrawn, so Ruby backers will get their money back if they go for the 16/1.
edit: if Poquelin was withdrawn, Ruby might get the ride on Northern Alliance. I’m not so sure that the jump jockeys are so ruthless as the ones on the Flat though.
Yes Gerald, you’re right, although the withdrawal of Poquelin (mythical though, as it transpired) would have allowed Ruby to replace Christian Williams legitimately. In the end Poquelin ran a cracker, although was ridden like a non-stayer. He must win a decent handicap off what now looks a decent mark.
Il Duce has been placed in this event in both 2007 and 2008 for Alan King, but will be ignored by many who know little about his new trainer Renee Robeson. Despite the fact that she has trained with some success for many years, It’s still common for her to be incorrectly referred to as Pauline Robson.
…or "Pru Robson", as the Beeb put on their on-screen caption when Cetti’s Warbler won the EBF Mares’ Chase Final at Uttoxeter for her in 2005. Tsk tsk.
Speaking of Uttoxeter, given the trainer’s splendid record there, and given that a sharpish 2m6f isn’t going to feel a right lot further than 2m4.5f did at Cheltenham on Saturday, I’d not be averse to a little each-way on Il Duce if lining up in what used to be the Singer & Friedlander Chase some time in the new year.
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
Amazing leniency from the handicapper to drop Il Duce at all never mind 7 lb. He shaped just about second best for me but patently needed the run.
Any thoughts on the running of Tell Massini on Sunday – I thought he jumped really well , he clearly stays well and he looks to have an excellent attitude.
As a trends man, my interest is based on the fact that that 2m 5f novice hurdle has produced all three locally trained winners of the 3M novice at the festival in it’s brief existence – Black Jack Ketchum, Witchita Lineman and Nenuphar Collonges.
Great story goes with the horse as well as he’s the first ever owned by a local farmer who was best known previously as the man that collected the gate money at the Berkeley Hunt point to point. He apparently sold some land to the nuclear power plant and then approached Tom George to ask him to buy him a horse. Whay a way to start out as an owner.
AP
Great story goes with the horse as well as he’s the first ever owned by a local farmer who was best known previously as the man that collected the gate money at the Berkeley Hunt point to point. He apparently sold some land to the nuclear power plant and then approached Tom George to ask him to buy him a horse. Whay a way to start out as an owner.
AP
Was told that story on Sunday by one of the owners of the runner up, who happens to be a neighbour. By all accounts he was heading towards bankruptcy when the Power Plant bought his land and made him a millionaire overnight (allegedly).
I was hugely taken by Tell Massini as well. Looks a real prospect.
Re Tell Massini:
"I’d suggested that Reve de Sivola was difficult to oppose in the Hyde Novices’ Hurdle, and was initially disappointed that he was readily brushed aside by Tom George’s Tell Massini, but reviewing the race in detail has led me to believe that this may have been the standout effort of the meeting. Tell Massini will be aimed at the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle come March, and the only pity is that there is no market on that race yet, because he appeals as a strong bet and I think he could be very smart indeed."
My latest scribblings:
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