Panoptic Picks

[emian]

This is a joint effort between Formath & myself. We will be covering all Mainland UK meetings and targeting races of Class 3 and above. I’ll be sticking exclusively to H/caps. Formath will no doubt do some but his forte is the better Non H/cap races. You prob know the way he reaches his conclusions already but I’m sure he’ll add a blurb with his selections. Mine will be blurbless. Just a brief description in this OP of how I operate my method/system.
Today we have decided we shall both look at the Leic 4.00. It’s a Class 3 H/cap hurdle. (not one of Formaths strengths )
Burnt Oak is a n/r so the field at present is 15. I’ve rated them initially in order to concentrated on the 8-9 that have a realistic chance of coming up trumps. The consequent short listed horses are then ranked against each other in three particular elements. Their relevant totals becomes their rating for the race under scrutiny. I then create a tissue. Any of the top 3-4 rated that appear to be value will be backed. They will be highlighted in BOLD. I’ll be using BOG @ 3 bookies only. B365-BETFRED-Paddy Power. They are the only three which satisfy my needs.
Todays field was culled to 8. The top 3 are…

Leic 4.00
Valento 33/1
Amuse Me 10/1
Ostland

No staking reccomendation but I usually do LS on all with periodic reviews.
BETFRED is not showing yet. Wonder why not?

[Formath]

After being inveigled into taking part in this combined venture as the junior partner I began badly by not knowing what the heck PANOPTIC means and had to look it up ‘considering all parts or elements’- now you know! , so selections derived from a detailed analysis – I think I am with it now (burbling again).

This Leicester meeting according to the prize money does not look up to much to me, even the 4.00 hcap hurdle, a type of race where I usually get the outcome wrong. After a cursory glance at the card I thought on speed/form the coming in-form yard Venetia Williams could have a worthy favourite in MANNLICHEN at shortish odds the danger coming from O’Neill/MCoy with AMUSE ME. Personally I favour APACHE CHANT each-way on a low weight at the bottom of the card, with a wealth warning that I am lousy at sussing this type of race.

[emian]

In Chat for a while

[emian]

Ostland 8/1

is now value.

[emian]

A couple of Class 3 h/c chases today. The one at Bangor is the classiest.
I considered only 8 runners in each race. Here are the top 3-4 rated with bog prices alongside.Value bets are in

bold.

Catt 2.15
You Know Yourself 4/1

Tooman Lane 33/1

Parks Prodigy 20/1

Carrietau 14/1

Bang 4.05

Dashing George 13/2

Afistfullofpebbles 10/1

Youngstown 7/2
Tarateeno 13/2

Valento was 2nd @ 33/1 on Tuesday.

[emian]

Yesterday, Catt off. DS 2nd @ 11/2 (13/2).
Four races for me today. A H/cap hurdle and three H/cap chases. All at BOG. All before 10am. Bets in

bold

.

San 3.00

Quartz De Thaix 16/1

Kilcrea Kim 9/1

1st

Lush Life 8/1

Numide 33/1

FL 3.10

Ballyfitz 14/1

Blazing Bailey 5/1 1st

Triggerman 10/1

3rd

Grand Slam Hero 22/1

San 3.35

Chief Yeoman 20/1

Beat The Boys 14/1

2nd
Leading Contender 9/2
Take The Breeze 4/1

San 4.05
Call Me A Legend 10/3
Noble Alan 11/2

Edgbriar 16/1

3rd

[Formath]

Sandown 2.25 a class 1 novice chase over 20.5f on GS and a really top-class contest. In my experience where you have class in the end it is speed that counts and the proven fast runners are No’s 8, 4, 6. All those out to 8/1 may be considered IMO. My ratings converted to a ‘fair odds’ 100% tissue. (My colleague emian has remarked that he finds some of my odds odd possibly such as No 1 today. As far as I am concerned they are mathematically correct relative to my assessment of past form. Where they could be modified is by considering the impact of meeting today’s race requirements and by the actual betting market near the off time, however I stand by them ).

1. 50/1 (Hobbs/Johnson 2nd best combo)
2. 25/1 speed?
3. 11/1 speed?
4. 4/1 Medermit, LTO headway led headed stayed on under pressure -.75L 2/17, the one to beat on Chel form (King noted)
5. 11/1 (Henderson noted)
6. 7/1 Rebel Du Maquis, LTO chased led hit 4th/2nd ridden headed weakened -7L 3/7, useful needs more today (Nicholls noted)
7. 7/1 Reve De Sivola, LTO not fluent reminders mistake outpaced no impression -23L 3/12, has it to prove chasing.
8. 9/2 Rock Noir, LTO held up last headway led on bit drew clear easily won +7L 1/3, has claims (O’Neill/McCoy best combo)
9. 6/1 Nadiva De La Vega, mare v males, LTO tracked lead hit 7th led ridden blundered kept on won +1 1/7, won 2/2 chasing (Henderson noted)

[emian]

Just one race of interest for me today.

Muss 3.35 (short list = 9)
Drill Sergeant 6/1

Cunning Clarets 14/1

Premier Cru 9/1

Orsippus 28/1

[Formath]

Strictly speaking I have dropped down below the class parameter required but I prefer this race to those north of the border

Fontwell 4.00 a class 4 hcap chase over 22f on GS where it looks like those that get the D could prevail. My form ratings converted to a ‘fair odds’ 100% book.

1. non-runner
2. 95/40 Folie A Deux, LTO bumped niggled rallied stayed on under pressure led won +.5L 1/6, has to get the D (Johnson up)
3. 33/1
4. 33/1 (Moore/Moore noted)
5. 10/3 Alldunnandusted, C&D* Form? D? LTO tracked lead lost place weakened behind 6/7, has to fence
6. 11/4 Extra Bold, LTO keen tracked lead led under pressure held on well won +2L 1/12, may be more to come
7. 6/1 mare v males? (Williams/Maloney best combo)

[emian]

There are three of interest today.

Lud 3.25

Real Treasure 14/1
Blue Nymph 8/1

Ruthenoise 7/2 2nd

Car 3.45
Knockara Beau 3/1 1st 10/3
Sa Suffit 6/1

Mr Woods 20/1

Lud 4.00
Shadow Dancer 11/2

Bible Lord 7/1 2nd
Hector’s Choice 14/1

3rd

[Formath]

Carlisle 3.10 a novice chase over 16f on heavy. Cadoudalas may be the ‘fancy’ being a proven fast runner, a mudlark and on a hatrick. Any out to 5/1 may be considered IMO. My ratings converted to a ‘fair odds’ 100% tissue.

1. 9/4 Cadoudalas, course? LTO led not fluent clear eased won +9L 1/9, progressive and a mudlark.
2. 11/2 class/
3. 7/4 Wind Shuffle, LTO made all hit 7th driven ridden stayed on gamely just held on won +ns 1/5, won chasing debut.
4. ? off track 123? Chasing
5. 11/2 off track 92?
6. 33/1, mare v males?

[Author]

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