padmans rolling D’s

[padman]

Fridays

<br>1.00 ayr lord transend £20 WON 1/5<br>1.40 ban island 111 £44 @10/11 LOST<br>2.00 ayr longshanks  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚£20 @ 4/6 WON<br>3.20 wol royal prodigy  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚£53 @ 10/11 WON

TOMORROWS RD IS £58 ON 1ST HORSE

<br>Paul

(Edited by padman at 3:34 pm on Nov. 28, 2003)

[padman]

Mr E,

Please run your beady little eye over my figs and tell me if I am doing the staking right.

Kind regards,

<br>Paul

[MrE]

I’ve only just got back Pads…. I’ll check it all out tomorrow…..<br>:biggrin:

MrE

[padman]

Saturdays

12-45 Hay BETTER DAYS £58-00 2/1 lost<br>1-00 New PUNTAL  £20 won @ 3/10<br>1-40 NewINTERSKY FALCON  £46 @ 1/2 lost<br>2-00 NewBARACOUDA  £20 @ 4/9 won<br>2-50 New GREAT AS GOLD  £48 @ 4/6 won

Paul

I have been using a £800 bank with a 2.5% stake using Mr E’s rolling doubles

I will update my figs for you after tomorrows racing and we will see how its getting on.

(Edited by padman at 3:12 pm on Nov. 29, 2003)

[padman]

Update on bank.

£800 BANK STANDS AT £712.08   -£87.92  SR 50% 46 BETS<br>LEVEL STAKES BANK £782.92  -£17.08

I feel you have to give it a 100 bets.  I have been a little unlucky with a few of the losers.

We keep going;)

<br>Paul<br>

[MrE]

Hi Pads… a few home truths needed here I think…. I have said before on numerous ocassions, that there isn’t a staking method that can turn a bad selection method into something good, it just cannot be done. Your selection method is no good in its present form, you are down using RD’s, but your £17 down using level stakes, there aint a staking method thats gonna correct that sorta crap. With all due respect to all on here, but Matron and others are having the same problems and I’ll tell you why, its this bloody odds on betting, its sheer lunacy to expect to win money by betting horses at grossly odds on. I aint talking about a little bit of odds on, its these long odds on shots that just keep popping up….. lets just look at your system Pads, you have a 50% SR so you need even money winners just to hold your own and you aint getting that. With the odds your picking you’ll need to look to getting a 70 to 80% SR…. at the moment your on 50%, you get two winners today at 3/10 and 4/9, that only returns you 1.87pts but you need 2pts to break even, so the further you go the deeper you’ll dive, if you can’t bubble along on the surface at levels stakes, there aint a plan thats gonna help you make a decent profit. My advice is to try and streamline your selection method, if your gonna continually bet at such bad odds, you’d better lift your SR up well above 50% cos that just aint good enough….. On a personal level I strive for a 2pt profit, I never bet at odds less than 8/11 cos two winners at that price gives me that 2pts profit, I also never "Roll on" if I have had a 5/1 winner cos I’ve made my profit and I aint gonna risk losing it…. this is just the way I play, I don’t expect you to follow, but you must do something about your selection process cos it looks a bit iffy and could do with a bit of pruning. It would only take 2 winners @ 2/1 in RD’s to put you £100 in front but if those two winners are 1/2, then you’ll still be £45 behind…….. get away from those odds on shots, they’re murdering you….. I’ll PM you with a method that’ll help you thin ’em out and hopefully regain some "value"…….<br>:biggrin: :biggrin:

MrE

(Edited by MrE at 4:28 pm on Nov. 29, 2003)

[Bricoman]

MrE…If you continue to talk common sense then I’m afraid I will have to snitch on you to Matron and have you forcibly removed from this Ward…hehehe :biggrin:

Bricoman

[padman]

Thanks for the comments Mr E. But this system has been in profit over the last 5 years showing a sr of 60+ and 82 points level stakes profit over the last 5 years so I thought it might be better with your rd’s staking. I look forward to your PM.

I do think it will improve as the racing has been awful of late. I will post for 100 bets and we will see how it turns out.

Only one donkey today

1-50 Doncaster MISTY FUTURE  £53 rd 8/11:o LOST

<br>Paul

(Edited by padman at 11:44 am on Nov. 30, 2003)<br>

(Edited by padman at 4:45 pm on Nov. 30, 2003)

[MrE]

Good morning Pads, your just proving my point mate… a profit of 80pts over 5 years = + 16pts profit per year, that wouldn’t even cover the cost of the Racing Post or your Internet access. If the last couple of weeks are anything to go by, you have 24 bets in a week, thats shelling out 1200pts a year, and what for???… a 16pt profit or a ROI of 1.3%, you’d get  BETTER return from any bank…. think even deeper, a 16pt per annum profit equates to 1.33 per month, don’t tell me you cant find ONE 2/1 winner each month, or even TWO even money shots would do, you could have the rest of the month off….. hehehe….. seriously Pads, the end result has to bear some profitability according to the amount invested and the work put in and you just aint gonna satisfy that by betting grossly odds on shots, its the way to the poorhouse. You don’t have to be a mathematician to see that if you had 3 losers, it will take 10 (ten) winners on the bounce @ 1/3 to show a poxy profit and if I thought that was possible, I wouldn’t be betting in doubles, I’d be going for the 8 and 10 horse Accumulators…… sorry Pads, IMO your going down the wrong path…..<br>:biggrin: :biggrin:

Oooops, nearly forgot, I like the look of Misty Future today and the 4/5 available on Betfair makes a tempting morsel….. g’luck…..

MrE

(Edited by MrE at 12:35 pm on Nov. 30, 2003)

[padman]

Hi Mr E,

Ok you are right. I will go back and have another look at it and see if I can improve the odds.

I suppose £320 a year is pretty crap staking at £20 a point but I just thought the rd’s would improve it. It only takes me 2 minutes to find the selections so no time is involved. I just like systems with high sr’s as like every one, I hate long losing runs and you just do not get them on this system.

Thanks again MR E,

Paul

[padman]

Mondays

I have slightly changed this for better odds hopefully.

1-00 FolkDEMPSEY  £20 WON 2/11:o <br>1-40 WolCELTIC HEROINE  NR<br>2-20 KelWINTER GARDEN  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚£43 @ 5/2 LOST

<br>Paul<br>

(Edited by padman at 3:35 pm on Dec. 1, 2003)

[MrE]

HAHAHA….. a good winner Pads, but I think that at 2/11, you might be moving in the wrong direction….. either that or there’s an outside possibility that you may be suffering with dyslexia……   <br>:biggrin: :biggrin: :biggrin:

MrE

[padman]

I thought is was 11/2 ;)

New rule no horses under 4/5 OK. If the horse is under this, just avoid and move onto the next horse.

Thanks Mr E for your help.

I will be posting 3 horses a day from now on up to 100 bets.

Regards,

<br>Paul

[padman]

Tuesdays

12-40 Her  ERIC’S CHARM £20 won 4/7 no bet<br>1-00 Ling   FREAK OCCURENCE  £20 @ 3/1 lost<br>1-20 NA     L’ANGE AU CIEL    NR

All the bets

<br>Paul<br>

(Edited by padman at 3:04 pm on Dec. 2, 2003)

[padman]

Wednesdays

<br>3-00 South MR MISCHIEF<br>3-10 Plum QUICK <br>3-20 Catt ARMAGUEDON

Paul <br>

[Author]

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