- This topic has 51 replies, 24 voices, and was last updated 14 years, 5 months ago by
.
- Posts
Having selected Billie Magern I have since had another bet after reading some very bullish articles!
Wishful Thinking has all the form in the book and is such a reliable horse that the EW price was too good to leave!!
Mr Nicholls however was extremely confident in yesterdays RP pullout re his very promising Mon Perrain, how this horse lost at Liverpool i will never understand (despite the winner being an Aintree specialist!!) he was cruising 2 out but appeared to empty at the elbow. Surely he has the raw ability to make all these go, what an awesome race we have in prospect again!
The Paddy Power form is very often turned on it’s head as the season progresses.
Long Run is a classic example of a horse thrown in but obviously not fully fit when competing in this last year.
The current fav Noble Prince showed his well being when having a hack round against poor opposition at Naas.
While he defeated Wishful Thinking at the festival and is better of at the weights I doubt if he’ll uphold the form this time.
In my opinion the Wishful Thinking he beat at Cheltenham wasn’t fully furbished and still a bit backward.
Many horses that go to Aintree after the festival run way below their best, but the Cheltenham experiences seemed to bring Wishful Thinking to peak form almost like he needed it. He looked a different horse at Aintree and at Punchestown winning both races easily.
I’m pretty confident wherever Noble Prince finishes it will be behind Wishful Thinking and not in front of him as the form book suggests.
Many of these will be gone before halfway on Saturday in what promises to be a guaranteed strong gallop. The front runner won’t be taking any prisoners and anything that isn’t 100% will soon be struggling.
Wishful Thinking loves to be up there and very few of these would out jump him. He’s one classy animal and looks certain to be still in there fighting when most have cried enough.
I would expect him to strip very fit, as were the luckless Captian Chris and Menorah.
No doubt in my mind he’s the one they all have to beat and currently he’s way too big in the market.
Wishful Thinking
erm… where the hell is NP fav?!
When i last checked (about 5 mins ago!)
Mon Parrain fav at 4s
Wishfull Thinking 7s
Noble Price around at 12s but mainly 10s….I’d far rather take a horse that’s 14 days without a run that has course form over a horse who’s currently 190 days without a run… and longer odds.
If Noble Prince runs he is an Each Way punt to nothing at 12/1.
Mon Parrain is the next Kauto Star. 4/1 is huge.
erm… where the hell is NP fav?!
When i last checked (about 5 mins ago!)
Mon Parrain fav at 4s
Wishfull Thinking 7s
Noble Price around at 12s but mainly 10s….I’d far rather take a horse that’s 14 days without a run that has course form over a horse who’s currently 190 days without a run… and longer odds.
I should have said one time fav. He opened 5 on the machine and drifted to 7 on the 14th of Septemeber when Paul Nolan said he was undecided on whether he would run him or not and he’s drifted ever since..Take me out and shoot me if it makes you happy?!!!
There’s a golden rule about pointing out someone’s silly mistakes . Always make sure you don’t make one yourself
If you think, backing a likely non runner because you can get 12/1 against a definite runner barring accidents at 7/1, is smart you go for it.
I’ve backed;
Mon Parrain 4/1
Wishful Thinking 7/1
Noble Prince 10/1Hoping they’ll all line up, think Mon Parrain may well go off at 2/1, especially if NP or WT doesn’t line up.
I’ll be laying MP in racing at least enough to cover my win stake as with the way he travels on the bridle he could well be evs. in running, not gauranteed to find as much off the bridle as some of the others imo.
Should be a cracking race.
- Total Posts 17716
I know this is going to tickle a few people but i quite like the anti post odds on b/fair for Oiseau de nuit . Place value me thinks . I know he is unproven really at the distance and has quite a few miles on the clock but fairly fresh legs has got to help going up the cheltenham hill .
I was trawling the internet in the early hours after coming back from our preview night, so I probably dreamt it [or read that PN had said he ‘hadn’t’ had a wind op’ and my brain clicked into a sort of default mode that didn’t comprehend the word ‘hadn’t’, ‘wind op’ and ‘PN’ all in the same sentence. This is the same preview night that told us ‘The Knoxes’ was the biggest certainty in the history of racing. Don’t ask me if I backed it….
looks like noble prince is not going to run. more likely to run in navan on sunday.
Arrrghh!!! The peril’s of ante-post betting, just backed him a few hours ago!
Gutted regarding the news, have protected my Mon Parrain wager with Daves Dream ew (16s) and Araldur ew (16s)
yes moe, barring a disaster. Henderson will have all his 3 in there tomorrow afternoon.
Actually, is it still 24 decs in NH racing in the UK?
I quite fancy
Fine Parchment
to run a nice race at a price…
1/1 at Cheltenham (impressively), goes on any ground, excellent jockey in Noel Fehily, clearly improving through last year, should be fit after a little pipe opener a few weeks ago, generally goes well at this time of year.
40/1 Stan James…that will be where my 50p ew will be going.
- Total Posts 17716
Actually, is it still 24 decs in NH racing in the UK?
Except for gd1’s and Sunday racing, so I believe.
Can’t have Mon Parrain in this – went out like a light at Aintree and, if it was either stamina or a wind problem, he’s unlikely to find this any easier.
Wishfull Thinking has the right kind of profile for the race and has to be a danger, but he has to give Great Endeavour 17lb, who has form in a better race than WT has so far contested, and though he disappointed in this last year, has run well fresh previously.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.