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Given that Long Run has made jumping errors in every race he has run in this country I wouldn’t want to back him at 7/2. If he does that again in what is always a fiercely contested race- and I think he will under his inexperienced jockey – he will struggle to give weight to the potential improvers lower down the weights. I think the winner is most likely to be either Great Endeavour or Sunnyhill Boy whose form when 1st and 2nd in the Byrne Group Hcap at the Festival was very solid. The race was run in a faster time than the Ryan Air which took place on the same day. They are both young and lightly raced, used to the hurly burly of competitive handicaps and won’t mind the likely ground. At the current prices I would favour Sunnyhill Boy.
At bigger prices I like the look of Tatenen and Pickamus each way. Both are lightly raced, could improve, and look reasonably handicapped. Pickamus’ run over hurdles at the October 23rd meeting looked like a prep race for this . 50/1 is tempting but he is also entered for a race on Friday so best to wait and see if he runs.
Finally, if it pours down with rain, The Sawyer would be interesting despite being 10 years old and fully exposed. A slog round Cheltenham is right up his street.
Apologies for banging on so long!
I can’t pick one…I can’t get a handle on the race though I haven’t thrown everything at it yet. I normally won’t have a bet if after looking at a race three times its still a blur.
I’m with Poquelin, completely over priced in face of his form and he’s abilities to handle conditions.
Weird Al EW for me after his recent prep run and hope he can keep up the decent race record of 2nd season chasers in the race
Weird Al won’t be going for this. He’ll go straight for the Hennessy.
Have to agree about his impressive run at Carlisle, which came at a unsuitable trip as well. Looking forward to his next run, but it won’t be in the Paddy Power.
I think i’ll actually side with Long Run in this. If anything is open to improvement it is him. Ideal distance. Will be an interesting contest.
I think Tatenen could give him a race, but when you consider how easily Long Run has won WITH those jumping issues, he’s a young, multiple Grade 1 winner (and Grade 2), and is roughly half way down the handicap including WH’s 5lb claim, I think I understand David Pipe’s opinion.
Though one of his wins was at Kempton, I believe the fences are not easy, so unless he’s sharpened up his jumping, there will always be some measure of risk of him failing – but I hope not too significant.
Incidentally, I find Nick Henderson so reliable, when I bet on a 12/1 shot of his the other day, first time out, and it lost, I couldn’t help feeling a little miffed, resentful even. You let me down, Nicholas.
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I think Nicky will have pretty wound up and if that is the case – I cannot see anything living with Long Run.
As long as he jumps the fences.
If he was to have any chance of winning the King George – which I hear they are quite sweet on his chances – then carrying 11’1 (with the claim) in this field (assuming he is fit) is something that he would have to be capable of.
Personally would like to see him carry 11’6 with a good jockey on board but as has been discussed – I think that is why he is 7/2 and not 9/4….
I agree aftershock. LONG RUN fits the profile of a paddy power gold cup winner. I remember in 1 of his races he crushed Tazbar and thats a pretty decent horse.
3/1 is a bit of a skinny price but surely hes a brilliant bet.
Its gonna have to be long run and denmana for the hennesy.
A nice double to pay for the christmas prezzies. COME ON !!- Total Posts 17716
Dutching race for me………….Mad Max is a better horse than Long Run IMO but Long Run will strip fitter of the two…Back both of them is my advice.
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I couldn’t have Long Run in this. Whether it was his jockey or not, he made far too many mistakes in the RSA, and these will be jumping a whole lot slicker than the novices he met there.
Mad Max also has it to do at this distance, imo. He’s always shown a lot of speed, but didn’t get home in the Ballymore, and his Aintree win wasn’t near the test of stamina this will provide.
Great Endeavour has the profile of a Pipe plot horse for this, having shown much his best form around here on his last outing, and could be worth a saver, though the bare reading of that form leaves him a lot to find with Poquelin.
Hard to know what Jonjo’s up to, but the booking of a claimer for Sunnyhillboy doesn’t inspire confidence, as it’s a weight AP could well do at a push, and Fingeronthepulse could be his best chance, but lacks the consistency of a typical Paddy Power winner.Poquelin
(12/1)
will do for me. Improved all last season, has plenty of experience of the course (181212, over fences), won’t mind the soft ground, and ran a blinder on his reappearance in a probably inadequate test. Remain convinced he was riidden with today in mind there, and the booking of last week’s big race winning jockey to take the 5lb off is just the icing on the cake.
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I think Little Josh will be thereabouts if he gets a clean round of jumping and I may have a small each-way. Mad Max is where my win money’s going.
Don’t want to put you off, but someone told me the other day that, although Little Josh’s jumping has improved it might not hold up at speed, as he tends to panic [the horse, not the jockey].
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Don’t want to put you off, but someone told me the other day that, although Little Josh’s jumping has improved it might not hold up at speed, as he tends to panic [the horse, not the jockey].
I hope he gets round o.k. Him and Zaarito are 2 horses I have trouble watching. I’m just waiting for them to go at any moment.
I wouldn’t worry about Little Josh, NTD is expecting big things of this horse this season and next, and his dead-heat with GC hopeful Weird Al is cracking form in this context. Pigeon Island is a danger off bottom weight and is good each way value considering his excellent course form.
I know the 10 year stats say 90% of winners were aged 6-8, but I’m hoping for more rain – that will suit 10 year old The Sawyer. Cyfor Malta was 9 in 2002 and was a 16/1 winner so shocks can happen as we all know.
Bit of a lazy one, I’ll be trying to get Sunnyhillboy in running for about 10.0
As has been mentioned McCoy would have starved if he really fancied it. He’s a horse that looks like he needs a prep run to be fully wound up which he hasnt had here, on top of which he needs to improve over a stone to win this. He doesnt look in the same class as other recent previous winners of this race, imo.
Hopefully he’ll come through the field past tiring horses and shorten up sufficently to nick a few quid on an inrunning lay.
There are quite a few in the field i like the look of, if i look away from Long Run.
The Sawyer, Nathan Sweeney gave him an excellent ride in the Betfair Trophy, over course and distance earlier in the year, albeit running off a lower weight than he will carry tomorrow.
Pigeon Island is a horse who i hold very close to myself, really like the little grey, shows a lot of heart, and has such a good jump over his fences for a small horse. Paddy Brenan takes the ride and the grey only has 10 stone on his back tomorrow.
I think he could produce a big run tomorrow.
The other one is Mad Max, however, he will, after all of the jockey’s claims, etc… be near the top of the weights. That said, i like the horse a lot, he is a favourite of mine, and i think if he is fit for tomorrow, then he could be a good thing, at a bit of a shorter price.
Will have another look at the race in the morning and see how the going changes overnight (if it does), but for the time being, if i were to take on Long Run, i would be doing so with –
The Sawyer
Pigeon Island
Mad Max.
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