- This topic has 68 replies, 38 voices, and was last updated 14 years ago by
.
-
Posts
-
I see the sponsers of this great handicap run around 21/2m at Cheltenham have put Long run in as the 4/1 fav! Tricky one!
He is either a cracking bet if you”re a believer or he is a false favourite! i should imagine both Tranquil Sea and Poquelin will be there again but both have certainly been raised since last year,i should imagine Long run will get in on 11-3 if Poquelin heads the weights! Early days but if Long runs lofty reputation scares the others off,4/1 could be very generous! I”m tempted i must say!I personally think 2 1/2 miles round Cheltenham, will suit Long Run down to the ground.
He was there or there abouts up until that point in the RSA last season.
Depends really how much work they are going to get into him before the Paddy Power.
Obviously, with the King George being a target, they will need to get a good run into him before Christmas time, and he will get that in the Paddy Power.
Will be interesting to see what weight he will get.
If Long Run gets in on his official handicap then barring a fall or serious jumping error I cannot see anything to get near him. I will be surprised if he does not end the season rated in the mid 170’s.
I know some on here will say they will not back him because of the jockey, but having his lordship on will mean he trades at a higher price. If Barry Geraghty was on he would be around 5/2.- Total Posts 17716
Not bad price for Somersby considering they have no intentions of running the horse.
I reckon WC rates this is horse higher than Nicky Henderson. My bet is Nicky henderson will have Long Run as fit as a fiddle for this as it’s very likely to be his best chance of winning a race all season.
4/1 seems fair I’ll have some of that.
I’d like to see Kempes aimed at this. He was going the right way over fences at the end of last season.
Kempes won the 3m Novice Chase at Punchestown, and looked as if the longer distance really suited him. I know his trainer is looking at ‘2 1/2 miles and up’, but I’d rather see him go for something longer than this. SERIOUS potential, IMHO.
Twitter=@PGHenn
So don't run, just like the others always do
Long Run will relish this race. He’s got plenty of class to win at a distance that may not suit him down to the ground, but it will keep plenty left in reserve for him to head to Kemptom at 100%.
Long Run undoubtedly has potential, and I can see him fighting out the finish with Copper Bleu, who is a tastey 16/1
Long Run undoubtedly has potential, and I can see him fighting out the finish with
Copper Bleu, who is a tastey 16/1
That price reflects his chance at the moment.
He is behind target with his work, as he knocked the inside of a joint, so isn’t cantering at the moment, behind with his workload, so he may not actually make the Paddy Power.
Long Run i state and state again and again will not win a Grade 1 Chase with that jockey.
Just will not happen!
Long Run i state and state again and again will not win a Grade 1 Chase with that jockey.
Just will not happen!
Already happened
Yikes your right….Okay here i go again.
This horse will not win
King George
Gold Cup
Betfair Bowl
Guinness Gold Cup
etc etc etc 3 Mile+ Grade 1’s
Having gone through the official ratings today i just cant see Poquelin winning at the weights.
Tranquil Sea
at 14"s could still run a big race of his revised mark having won very easily last year,Long Run wont get any bigger than the 4/1 he currently trades at so i shall swerve him,i just cant see Nicky having him cherry ripe for one with such a lofty reputation.The horse that keeps catching my eye is
Chapoturgeon
at 10"s, his current mark of 150 means he will be very well off with both Tranqil Sea and Poquelin on previous Cheltenham form,i believe there is still improvement in him and i can see Paul Nicholls laying him out for this,his jumping can let him down but again i expect he will have schooled a plenty,my only concern is if he has to come off the bridle,i can only hope at the weights he doesn"t have too!
Its 2yrs today i have reigned supreme as the King of Ante-Post betting on this forum! I have dealt with many challengers to my throne in that time with the honour bestowed upon my Crown! Obviously i cant reign forever but until the day i"m removed by an Anarchic uprising i shall continue to do my best and lead my troops into many more battles with the bookmakers! This Paddy Power Chase is right up my street and the more i look at
Chapoturgeon
the more i like his chances! I just hope Poquelin stands his ground and carrys 11-9,that way "Chapo" gets in with 10-9 and as i have already stated puts him well in with both Poquelin and Tranquil sea,not only that but both Sunnyhill boy and Great Endeavour will end up running out of the handicap which will make "Chapo" virtually a stone better off with both on there last Cheltenham running! I can see Timmy Murphy staying loyal to "Chapo" with Danny Cook keeping the ride on the owners Great Endeavour!Paul Nicholls could put a claimer on Poquelin just to ease the pain but that would leave Ruby without a ride!
Either way when was the last time "Chapo" carried around 10-9? The last time he won!! TAPK"s on again at 12"s on the machine! Long live the King! Hey, haven’t been on here for a while, I tend to hibernate when it is the flat season! Back now to another hopefully prosperous campaign over the jumps.
In terms of the PPGC, I too like Chapoturgeon but there’s a niggling doubt still about his jumping and although still only young, it will be tough against some seasoned rivals.
The one I like is
Razor Royale
(if turning out) for the GC winning trainer NTD. The start of the season is TD’s time of year (and March, hopefully!) and he usually has his horses spot on. Although RR probably prefers the deep Winter ground (as seen in the RP Chase), I can’t imagine the November turf to be any faster than good to soft and so won’t inconvenience this up and coming chaser. Not sure of the precise odds at present but well worth ew IMO.
Hey, haven’t been on here for a while, I tend to hibernate when it is the flat season! Back now to another hopefully prosperous campaign over the jumps.
In terms of the PPGC, I too like Chapoturgeon but there’s a niggling doubt still about his jumping and although still only young, it will be tough against some seasoned rivals.
The one I like is
Razor Royale
(if turning out) for the GC winning trainer NTD. The start of the season is TD’s time of year (and March, hopefully!) and he usually has his horses spot on. Although RR probably prefers the deep Winter ground (as seen in the RP Chase), I can’t imagine the November turf to be any faster than good to soft and so won’t inconvenience this up and coming chaser. Not sure of the precise odds at present but well worth ew IMO.
Can anyone tell me what kind of weight Catch Me would be allocated for the Paddy Power. Thought he was unlucky against Pandorama and Weapons Amnesty last time he was seen. Think that form stands up to close scrutiny.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.