Owner / Trainer Handicap Analysis – 2008 – 2018

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  • #1400178
    charlie87
    charlie87
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    I made this on the Fat Jockey Forum and wanted to share here too.

    JP McManus Handicap Performance 2008 – 2018

    Runners / Winners / Losing Fav / Placed 1-3

    Ultima
    11 / 2 / 3 / 1
    2 winners
    2012 – Alfie Sherrin 14/1
    2009 – Wichita Lineman 5/1f

    Close Brothers
    14 / 0 / 2 / 3

    Cross Country (Handicap from 2008 – 2015)
    21 / 2 / 3 / 5
    2009 – Garde Champetre 7/2f (he had the 1,2,3 that year)
    2008 – Garde Champetre 4/1

    Coral Cup
    24 / 0 / 3 / 2

    Pertemps
    27 / 0 / 3 / 4

    Brown Advisory
    17 / 0 / 3 / 3

    Kim Muir
    19 / 2 / 2 / 3
    2016 – Cause Of Causes 9/2f
    2012 – Sunnyhillboy 13/2

    Martin Pipe
    16 / 0 / 2 / 1

    County Hurdle
    30 / 1 / 3 / 1 / 2
    2012 – Alderwood 20/1

    Grand Annual
    26 / 3 / 3 / 2
    2018 – Le Prezien 15/2
    2013 – Alderwood 3/1f
    2012 – Bellvano 20/1

    The ‘Plot’

    Garde Champetre 2009 – 11-12 – top weight
    Sunnyhillboy – 11-11 – 2/23 in the weights
    Cause Of Causes – 11-9 – 5/22 in the weights
    Garde Champetre 2008 – 10-13- 6/16 in the weights
    Le Prezien 11-8 – 6/22 in the weights
    Wichita Lineman – 10-9 – 12/21 in the weights
    Alderwood 2012 – 11-1 – 13/26 in the weights
    Alderwood 2013 – 10-11 – 13/23 in the weights
    Bellvano – 10-2 – 15/21 in the weights
    Alfie Sherrin – 10-0 – Bottom weight

    Summary

    Total Handicap Runners: 205
    Winners: 10 (4.8% strike rate)
    Placed: 26 (12% strike rate)

    27 (13%) of JP handicap runners have gone off favourite.
    4 (14%) of those went on to win.
    In the last 10 years Pendra, Bouvreuil & Get Me Out Of Here accounted for 43% of all his placed runners.

    A £10 level stake across all his handicap runners from 2008-2018 would leave you down – £860.

    The JP ‘plot job’ has little to no substance to it. Other than Alfie Sherrin who crept in off bottom weight, 50% of his winners were towards the top end of the weights. Nearly 15% of all his runners go off fav in handicaps because the public believe of ‘the plot’, but I suppose that’s good for the horses left in behind at bigger prices that we can all get stuck into.

    JP Handicappers with Festival Experience/Form

    Squouateur
    2016 – Martin Pipe – 7/24
    2017 – Kim Muir – UR
    2018 – Kim Muir – 3/20

    Cheltenham 2019 – Kim Muir – 16/1

    Bouvreuil
    2015 – Fred Winter – 2/22
    2016 – Close Brothers – 2/20
    2017 – Brown Advisory – 3/24
    2018 – Grand Annual – BD

    Cheltenham 2019 – Grand Annual – 33/1

    Ivanovich Gorbatov
    2016 – Triumph* – 1/15
    2017 – County Hurdle – 6/25
    2018 – County Hurdle – 17/25

    Cheltenham 2019 – County Hurdle – 33/1

    Le Prezien
    2017 – Grand Annual – 8/24
    2018 – Grand Annual – 1/22

    No Comment
    2017 – Martin Pipe – 7/23
    2018 – National Hunt Chase – 6/16

    Place Form 2018

    Glenloe – Pertemps – 2/23
    Early Doors – Martin Pipe – 3/23

    #1400179
    charlie87
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    David Pipe Handicap Performance 2008 – 2018

    Runners / Winners / Losing Fav / Placed 1-3

    Ultima
    14 / 3 / 1 / 2
    2017 – Un Temps Pour Tout – 11-12 – 9/1
    2016 – Un Temps Pour Tout – 11-7 – 11/1
    2008 – An Accordion 7/1

    Close Brothers
    5 / 0 / 0 / 0

    Cross Country (Handicap from 2008 – 2015)
    1 / 0 / 0 / 0

    Coral Cup
    15 / 0 / 1 / 0

    Pertemps
    22 / 2 / 2 / 3
    2011 – Buena Vista – 10-8 – 20/1
    2010 – Buena Vista – 10-4 – 16/1

    Brown Advisory
    18 / 3 / 2 / 2
    2014 – Ballynagour 12/1
    2012 – Salut Flo 9/2f
    2010 – Great Endeavour 18/1

    Kim Muir
    28 / 2 / 2 / 2
    2015 – The Package 9/1
    2011 – Junior 10/3f

    Martin Pipe
    18 / 0 / 3 / 1

    County Hurdle
    10 / 0 / 0 / 0

    Grand Annual
    8 / 0 / 1 / 2

    Summary

    Total Handicap Runners: 139
    Winners: 10 (7%)
    Placed: 12 (9.3%)

    12 (9%) of David Pipe trained horses have gone off favourite
    2 (16%) of those went on to win

    A £10 level stake across all his handicap runners from 2008-2018 would leave you down -£220

    Season / Cheltenham Winners / Handicap Entries / Total NH Runners

    2018 – 0 – 7 – 361
    2017 – 1 – 3 – 487
    2016 – 1 – 4 571
    2015 – 1 – 11 – 579
    2014 – 1 – 10 591
    2013 – 0 – 13 – 624
    2012 – 1 – 16 632
    2011 – 2 – 13 – 504
    2010 – 2 – 12 – 562
    2009 – 0 – 18 – 662
    2008 – 1 – 14 – 698

    During the 2011-12 season David Pipe had 632 NH runners and 16 Handicap runners at Cheltenham
    Last year, David Pipe had 361 NH runners and only 7 Handicap runners at Cheltenham.

    His number of NH runners have generally been on the decline which is reflected in the number he sends to Cheltenham. From 2008 -2015 he was always sending at least 10 handicappers to Cheltenham. In the last 3 years he has sent 14.

    The ‘Plot’

    Buena Vista & Un Temps Pour Tout account for 4/10 of his wins in the last decade.

    I don’t think they can be described as plots. Un Temps Pour Tout was top weight when winning in 2017 & 9/23 in the weights when winning in 2016. Buena Vista was well handicapped when winning off 10-4 in 2010 which was 17/24 in the weights, and then off 10-8 in 2011 which was 11/22 in the weights

    Conclusion

    David Pipe places horses with festival form very well but the plot, similar to JP MacManus owned horses, is a myth. 9% of Pipe runners go off favourite in handicaps with only 2 of those going on to win. Pipe appears to have little interest in the Grand Annual, County Hurdle, Close Brothers and Cross Country. 46% of all his runners over the last decade have gone to the Kim Muir, Pertemps and Ultima.

    Basically, he is not the force of old but because he has placed his horses well in the same races and landed a couple of back-to-back wins, there is this notion that Pipe ‘plot jobs’ happen regularly which they don’t.

    #1400180
    charlie87
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    Paul Nicholls Handicap Performance 2008 – 2018

    Runners / Winners / Losing Fav / Placed 1-3

    Ultima
    12 / 0 / 0 / 0

    Close Brothers
    13 / 1 / 2 / 1
    2009 – Chapoturgeon 8/1

    Cross Country (Handicap from 2008 – 2015)
    4 / 0 / 0 / 0

    Coral Cup
    17 / 1 / 0 / 2
    2015 – Aux Ptit Soins 9/1

    Pertemps
    14 / 0 / 2 / 3

    Fred Winter
    19 / 3 / 1 / 5
    2016 – Diego Du Charmil 13/2 (1/2 with Diego Du Charmil & Romain De Senam)
    2015 – Qualando 25/1 (1/2 with Qualando & Bouvreuil)
    2010 – Sanctuaire 4/1jf

    Brown Advisory
    17 / 0 / 1 / 2

    Kim Muir
    8 / 0 / 0 / 0

    Martin Pipe
    18 / 2 / 0 / 1
    2016 – Ibis Du Rheu 14/1
    2013 – Salubrious 16/1

    County Hurdle
    16 / 2 / 1 / 1
    2014 – Lac Fontana 11/1
    2009 – American Trilogy 20/1

    Grand Annual
    20 / 3 / 3 / 0
    2018 – Le Prezien 15/2
    2016 – Solar Impulse 28/1
    2008 – Andreas 12/1

    Summary

    Total Handicap Runners: 158
    Winners: 12 (7.5% strike rate)
    Placed: 15 (10%)

    10 out of his 12 winners are French Bred.

    10 losing favourites
    1 winning favourite

    A £10 level stake across all his handicap runners from 2008-2018 would leave you up £130

    His average priced winner is 16/1

    Race Summary

    His record in the Ultima, Kim Muir & Cross Country is not good. 24 runners, no winners, no places, no favourites. The same can be said for the Pertemps and Brown Advisory, 31 bullets and never won.

    10 (83%) of his winners have come from the Fred Winter, Martin Pipe, County Hurdle and Grand Annual.

    A £10 level stake across these 4 races would leave you up £810.

    Season / Cheltenham Winners / Handicap Entries / Total NH Runners

    Despite not having the graded horses he once did, his entries and handicap numbers are very consistent as you can see below:

    2018 – 1 – 14 -576
    2017 – 0 – 17 – 673
    2016 – 3 – 19 – 568
    2015 – 2 – 15 – 517
    2014 – 1 – 17 – 587
    2013 – 1 – 13 – 565
    2012 – 0 – 10 – 598
    2011 – 0 – 9 – 583
    2010 – 1 – 16 – 533
    2009 – 2 – 13 – 614
    2008 – 1 – 16 – 610

    The ‘Plot’

    With 1 winning favourite, 10 losing favourites and an average SP on winners of 16/1 the Paul Nicholls plot (which isn’t a common term anyway) does not exist. I am only mentioning that because of how this thread started.

    It’s clear the vast majority of his handicap winners go under the radar.

    Conclusion

    Again, probably not reaching conclusions people on here haven’t reached already, but Paul Nicholls is a benchmark of consistency. He is consistently poor in the Ultima, Kim Muir, Cross Country, Pertemps and Brown Advisory, and consistently strong in the Fred Winter, Martin Pipe, County Hurdle and Grand Annual. 83% of his handicap winners in the last decade have come from these 4 races where he has won 10/73. 75% of his handicap winners have gone off double figure prices so don’t be put off by larger prices. I’l get round to creating a list of his potential runners in the Fred Winter, Martin Pipe, County Hurdle and Grand Annual at some point.

    #1400181
    charlie87
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    Jonjo O’Neill Handicap Performance 2008 – 2018

    Ultima
    15 / 3 / 2 / 1
    2014 – Holywell 10/1
    2012 – Alfie Sherrin 14/1
    2009 – Wichita Lineman 5/1f

    Close Brothers
    8 / 0 / 1 / 1

    Cross Country (Handicap from 2008 – 2015)
    1 / 0 / 0 / 0

    Coral Cup
    8 / 0 / 0 / 3

    Pertemps
    15 / 1 / 0 / 0
    2013 – Holywell 25/1

    Brown Advisory
    10 / 0 / 3 / 1

    Kim Muir
    19 / 1 / 0 / 1
    2012 – Sunnyhillboy 13/2f

    Martin Pipe
    10 / 0 / 0 / 0

    County Hurdle
    10 / 0 / 0 / 2

    Grand Annual
    8 / 0 / 0 / 1

    Summary

    Total Handicap Runners: 104
    Winners: 5 (4.8%)
    Placed: 10 (10%)
    Losing Favourites: 6 (5.7%)

    3 out of 5 of his winners have been in the Ultima.

    He has never won the Close Brothers, Cross Country, Brown Advisory, Martin Pipe, County Hurdle or Grand Annual. He has sent more runners to the Kim Muir than any other race and had more losing favourites than any other race.

    A £10 level stake across all his handicap runners from 2008-2018 would leave you down £385

    Season / Cheltenham Winners / Handicap Entries / Total NH Runners

    2018 – 0 – 3 – 553
    2017 – 0 – 10 – 689
    2016 – 0 – 17 – 560
    2015 – 0 – 9 – 634
    2014 – 1 – 13 – 810
    2013 – 1 – 11 – 705
    2012 – 2 – 8 – 649
    2011 – 0 – 7 – 750
    2010 – 0 – 12 – 723
    2009 – 1 – 14 – 623
    2008 – 0 – 6 – 716

    Conclusion

    It’s been a quiet few years at Cheltenham for Jonjo with all his winners coming between 2009 – 2014. He had his lowest number of total runners last season and lowest number of Cheltenham handicap entries last year

    Holywell accounts for 2 of his 5 wins in handicaps at Cheltenham. Hardly crept in at 11/22 in the weights in the Pertemps Final and 6/23 in the weights when winning the Ultima. Alfie Sherrin actually was a bit of a plot (which I covered in the JP thread).

    Similarly to others analysed, his ratio of winners to losing favourites is similar with 5 winners and 6 losing favourites (Pipe had 11 losing favourites and 10 winners, Nicholls had 10 losing favourites and 12 winners).

    Outside of Holywell all his winners have been JP MacManus owned. Bar Johns Spirit, all of his losing favourites have also been owned by JP MacManus:

    Alfie Sherrin, Sunnyhillboy – Ultima
    Kia Kaha – Close Brothers
    Colour Squadron, Sunnyhillboy – Close Brothers

    This prompted me to look at horses that are JP owned and non-JP owned

    Ultima – 7 v 8
    Close Brothers – 4 v 4
    Cross Country 1 v 0
    Coral Cup – 5 v 3
    Pertemps – 11 v 4
    Brown Advisory 5 v 5
    Kim Muir 10 v 9
    Martin Pipe 7 v 3
    County 7 v 3
    Grand Annual 8 v 0 (5 for Eastlake)

    63% of his 104 handicap entries have been owned by JP MacManus, with 5/6 of his losing favourites being owned by JP MacManus. I’d say they are more heavily punted than most.

    I’ve had plenty of great days backing Jonjo’s but cant help feeling most of those days are behind me now.

    #1400182
    charlie87
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    Gigginstown House Stud Handicap Performance 2008 – 2018

    Ultima
    2 / 0 / 0 / 0

    Close Brothers
    6 / 0 / 0 / 0

    Cross Country (Handicap from 2008 – 2015)
    2 / 1 / 0 / 0
    2015 – Rivage D’Or 16/1

    Coral Cup
    7 / 0 / 1 / 1

    Pertemps
    4 / 1 / 0 / 0
    2018 – Delta Work 6/1

    Brown Advisory
    4 / 2 / 0 / 1
    2017 – Road To Respect 14/1
    2016 – Empire Of Dirt 16/1

    Kim Muir
    3 / 0 / 0 / 1

    Martin Pipe
    10 / 4 / 1 / 2
    2018 – Blow By Blow 11/1
    2017 – Champagne Classic 12/1
    2014 – Don Poli 12/1
    2011 – Sir Des Champs 9/2f

    County Hurdle
    8 / 0 / 0 / 0

    Grand Annual
    4 / 1 / 0 / 0
    2014 – Savello 16/1

    Summary

    Total Handicap Runners: 50
    Winners: 9 (18%)
    Placed: 5 (9.6%)

    A £10 level stake across all Gigginstown horses would leave you up £665

    Trainer / Runners / Winners / Place / Beat Fav

    G Elliott / 22 / 3 / 4 /2
    W P Mullins / 9 / 2 / 1 / 1
    A J Martin 5 / 2 / 0 / 0
    N Meade 3 / 1 / 0 / 0
    C A Murphy 1 / 1 / 0 / 0

    Gordon wins or places 31% of all handicaps

    Races

    Obviously their record in the Martin Pipe is phenomenal, with 4 of their 10 runners winning the race.

    One winning favourite in Sir Des Champs. The average price of their other 8 winners is 11/1, hence why the return off £10 level stakes is so high.

    Never won the Ultima, Close Brothers, Coral Cup, Kim Muir or County Hurdle.

    Season / Cheltenham Winners / Handicap Entries / Total NH Runners (Ireland)

    2018 – 2 – 5 – 940
    2017 – 2 – 8 – 877
    2016 – 1 – 3 – 653
    2015 – 1 – 7 – 660
    2014 – 2 – 3 – 608
    2013 – 0 – 9 – 504
    2012 – 0 – 6 – 439
    2011 – 1 – 6 – 442
    2010 – 0 – 0 – 318
    2009 – 0 – 2 – 300
    2008 – 0 – 1 – 241

    Conclusion

    We all know the regard Michael O’Leary holds for handicaps at Cheltenham, but even still, their record is superb. I always think of Gigginstown as mob handed at Cheltenham but they have never sent more than 10 horses handicapping at the festival in one year which I found quite surprising. To put that into perspective, JP McManus sent 155 more horses to handicaps over the last decade than Gigginstown. It is particularly noticeable when you look at the number of horses in Gigginstown’s ownership and the number of runners they have each season in Ireland.

    Their win to run ratio in the last 5 years is very good, to put it lightly. Gordon Elliot now trains 44% of all their entries. Willie had a better strike rate than Gordon (22%) but that’s now irrelevant after the fallout over training fees.

    Have run 3 or less runners in the Ultima (2) and Kim Muir (3), so little interest. Have won the Pertemps (4) and Cross Country (2) once, with 4 or less runners. Again, little interest.

    Their record in the Martin Pipe and Brown Advisory is superb, having sent 14 runners and won 6 times at an average price of 11/1. I’l be keeping a keen eye out on their horses in these races.

    #1400183
    charlie87
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    Nicky Henderson Handicap Performance 2008 – 2018

    Runners / Winners / Losing Fav / Placed 1-3

    Ultima
    13 / 0 / 1 / 2

    Close Brothers
    21 / 1 / 1 / 5
    2013 – Rajdhani Express 16/1

    Cross Country (Handicap from 2008 – 2015)
    0 / 0 / 0 / 0

    Fred Winter
    14 / 1 / 2 / 2
    2012 – Une Artiste 40/1

    Coral Cup
    32 / 2 / 2 / 1
    2014 – Whisper 14/1
    2010 – Spirit River 14/1

    Pertemps
    15 / 1 / 0 / 0
    2015 – Call The Cops 9/1

    Brown Advisory
    19 / 0 / 0 / 0

    Kim Muir
    13 / 0 / 0 / 2

    Martin Pipe
    25 / 1 / 1 / 3
    2009 – Andytown 25/1

    County Hurdle
    17 / 0 / 1 / 1

    Grand Annual
    29 / 1 / 3 / 6
    2012 – Bellvano 20/1

    Summary

    Total Handicap Runners: 198
    Winners: 7 (3.5%)
    Placed: 24 (12.4%)

    A £10 level stake across all his handicap runners from 2008-2018 would leave you down – £530, and that’s keeping in mind 4 of his 7 winners won at 40/1, 25/1, 20/1 and 16/1.

    Season / Cheltenham Winners / Handicap Entries / Total NH Runners

    2018 – 0 – 19 – 524
    2017 – 0 – 16 – 618
    2016 – 0 – 14 – 414
    2015 – 1 – 15 – 499
    2014 – 1 – 22 – 514
    2013 – 1 – 19 – 509
    2012 – 2 – 23 – 627
    2011 – 0 – 22 – 612
    2010 – 1 – 20 – 511
    2009 – 1 – 19 – 499
    2008 – 0 – 9 – 377

    Races

    Never won the County Hurdle, Kim Muir, Brown Advisory or Ultima, having tried with 62 runners, 5 of which placed. In the Brown Advisory Nicky sends an average of 2 runners per year and has never once placed. Other than Call The Cops in 2015, Nicky has never placed in 34 attempts in the Pertemps and Brown Advisory

    Never sent a runner cross country.

    44% of all his runners go Coral Cup, Martin Pipe and Grand Annual. 6/11 losing favorites comes from these races.

    It’s quite difficult to draw any meaningful trends/conclusions as 6/7 winners have come from different races spread across a number of years.

    Conclusions

    I love Nicky Henderson. His record in graded races at the Cheltenham Festival is second to none and should be applauded by all, but this success does not spill over into the handicaps (I doubt he gives one single **** when you look at his record on the Champion Hurdle, RSA, Champion Chase etc).

    In the last 10 years 11/198 Nicky Henderson handicap entries have gone off favorite. None have won at the Cheltenham Festival.

    His 7/198 winners have won with an average SP of 20/1, with 6/7 being won in different races.

    Comparing to a trainer of similar size (stable wise ), Paul Nicholls has trained 5 more handicap winners than Nicky with 40 less attempts over the last 10 years, and posts a positive ROI of +£130 across all his runners, vs
    – £530 for backing all of Nicky’s. Were it not for some big priced winners you would have done your absolute bollocks following Nicky Henderson over the last decade in handicaps at Cheltenham.

    Nicky hasn’t won a handicap since 2015 at Cheltenham despite averaging 1 a year since 2008.

    Paul and Nicky have had 1/22 winning favs between them at Cheltenham over the last 10 years.

    Like I said at the start, Nicky will be dreaming about BVD and Altior doing the business and not whether or not he can land the Ultima for the first time, but I thought it made for interesting reading for us punters nonetheless

    #1400184
    charlie87
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    Willie Mullins Handicap Performance 2008 – 2018

    Runners / Winners / Losing Fav / Placed 1-3

    Ultima
    0 / 0 / 0 / 0

    Close Brothers
    4 / 0 / 0 / 1

    Cross Country (Handicap from 2008 – 2015)
    10 / 0 / 1 / 1

    Coral Cup
    26 / 1 / 3 / 1
    2018 – Bleu Berry 20/1

    Fred Winter
    10 / 0 / 0 / 0

    Pertemps
    3 / 0 / 0 / 1

    Brown Advisory
    4 / 0 / 0 / 0

    Kim Muir
    6 / 0 / 0 / 0

    Martin Pipe
    18 / 3 / 2 / 1
    2015 – Killultagh Vic 7/1
    2014 – Don Poli 12/1
    2011 – Sir Des Champs 9/2f

    County Hurdle
    27 / 4 / 1 / 3
    2017 – Arctic Fire 20/1
    2015 – Wicklow Brave 25/1
    2011 – Final Approach 10/1
    2010 – Thousand Stars 20/1

    Grand Annual
    4 / 0 / 1 / 0

    Summary

    Total Handicap Runners: 112
    Winners: 8 (7%)
    Placed: 8 (7.6%)

    A £10 level stake across all his handicap runners from 2008-2018 would leave you up +£145

    Season / Cheltenham Winners / Handicap Entries / Total NH Runners (Ireland only)

    2018 – 1 – 17 – 797
    2017 – 1 – 10 – 571
    2016 – 0 – 14 – 557
    2015 – 2 – 18 – 554
    2014 – 1 – 13 – 665
    2013 – 0 – 15 – 595
    2012 – 0 – 6 – 498
    2011 – 2 – 7 – 467
    2010 – 1 – 10 – 545
    2009 – 0 – 1 – 514
    2008 – 0 – 0 – 562

    Races

    Never sent a horse to the Ultima. 22 (20%) of his horses have run in the Close Brothers, Pertemps, Brown Advisory, Kim Muir and Grand Annual. He has never won those 6 races, or the Fred Winter and Cross Country.

    He has sent 42 horses to 8/11 handicaps, all of which he has never won.

    71 (63%) of all Willies runners go to the Coral Cup, Martin Pipe and County Hurdle. 100% of all his handicap winners have come from these races.

    A £10 level stake across all his handicap runners in the Coral Cup, Martin Pipe and County Hurdle from 2008-2018 would leave you up +£555

    P Townend is his most successful handicap jockey having won twice and been third twice.

    Average priced winner is 14/1. He has 1 winning favourite, 8 losing favourites.

    Conclusion

    The 2 things that surprised me were the number of handicappers he has sent to the festival (lower than I thought) and how clearly he targets specific races.

    I thought 83% of Paul Nicholls winners coming from 4 races (Fred Winter, Martin Pipe, County Hurdle, Grand Annual) was a stand out stat, but 100% of Willie Mullins handicap winners over the last decade have come from the Coral Cup, Martin Pipe and County Hurdle.

    With an average SP of 14/1 you would be in the gravy backing his horses off level stakes in just these 3 races. I would be weary with the Coral Cup but his performance in the Martin Pipe & County Hurdle are exceptional.

    #1400185
    charlie87
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    Davy Russell Handicap Performance 2008 – 2018

    The owner & trainer analysis has been so well received I thought I would look at Davy Russell’s handicap performance over the last decade.

    In short, the man is a genius in handicaps around Cheltenham and would probably be the first person to credit the trainers and owners for giving him the opportunity. The numbers do the talking, no more need be said.

    Year / Position / Horse / Price / Trainer

    Wins in bold
    Placed 2-4 in italics

    Ultima
    2017 / 3rd / Noble Endeavor / 15/2 / G Elliott
    2016 / 4th / Morning Assembly / 10/1 / P A Fahy
    2014 / F / Vintage Star / 16/1 / Mrs S J Smith
    2009 / 14th / Cailin Alainn / 13/2 / C Byrnes
    2008 / 2nd / New Alco / 10/1 / Ferdy Murphy

    Close Brothers
    2018 / PU / De Plotting Shed / 11/2 / G Elliott
    2017 / 3rd / Two Taffs / 7/1 / D Skelton
    2013 / PU / Carlito Brigante / 8/1 / G Elliott
    2012 / 15th / Going Wrong / 9/1 / Ferdy Murphy
    2011 / 6th / Tharawaat / 14/1 / G Elliott
    2009 / 9th / Slash And Burn / 20/1 / C F Swan
    2008 / 10th / Lord Ryeford / 20/1 / T R George

    Cross Country (Handicap from 2008 – 2015)
    2015 / 1st / Rivage D’Or / 16/1 / A J Martin
    2011 / RO / One Cool Cookie / 16/1 / C F Swan
    2010 / 13th / Preists Leap / 33/1 / T G O’Leary
    2009 / 5th / Dix Villez / 8/1 / P Nolan
    2008 / 2nd / Native Jack / 40/1 / P J Rothwell

    Coral Cup
    2018 / PU / Diamond King / 33/1 / G Elliott
    2016 / 1st / Diamond King / 12/1 / G Elliott
    2014 / PU / Party Rock / 28/1 / Jennie Candlish
    2013 / F / Un Beau Matin / 16/1 / G Elliott
    2012 / PU / Carlito Brigante / 16/1 / G Elliott
    2011 / 1st / Carlito Brigante / 16/1 / G Elliott
    2010 / 13th / Psycho / 7/1 / A J Martin
    2009 / 1st / Naiad du Misselot / 7/1 / Ferdy Murphy
    2008 / 10th / Ross River / 14/1 / A J Martin

    Fred Winter
    2017 / 10th / Long Call / 9/1 / A J Martin

    Pertemps
    2018 / 1st / Delta Work / 6/1 / G Elliott
    2017 / 1st / Presenting Percy / 11/1 / P G Kelly
    2016 / 1st / Mall Dini / 14/1 / P G Kelly
    2013 / 8th / Stonemaster / 14/1 / D T Hughes
    2010 / PU / Time Electric / 16/1 / T Mullins

    Brown Advisory
    2018 / 1st / The Storyteller / 5/1f / G Elliott
    2017 / PU / Diamond King / 5/1f / G Elliott
    2010 / PU / Made In Taipan / 25/1 / T Mullins
    2009 / 3rd / Notable D’Estruval / 8/1 / A L T Moore

    County Hurdle
    2018 / 11th / Ben Dundee / 12/1 / G Elliott
    2015 / 18th / Rich Coast / 25/1 / N Meade
    2011 / 21st / Grey Soldier / 14/1 / G Elliott
    2010 / 18th / Bahrain Storm / 33/1 / P J Flynn
    2008 / 13th / Eagle’s Pass / 16/1 / T J O’Mara

    Grand Annual
    2018 / 3rd / Top Gamble / 8/1 / Kerry Lee
    2017 / 4th / Dandridge / 13/2 / A L T Moore
    2016 / 2nd / Dandridge / 8/1 / A L T Moore
    2014 / 1st / Savello / 16/1 / A J Martin
    2009 / 5th / Tiger Cry / 14/1 / A L T Moore
    2008 / 1st / Tiger Cry / 15/2 / A L T Moore

    Overall Summary

    Total Rides: 47
    Wins: 10 (21%)

    2nds: 3 (6%)
    3rds: 4 (8%)
    4ths: 2 (4%)

    A £10 level stake across all his handicap runners from 2008-2018 would leave you up +£735.

    Assuming you are paid 1-4 on a place, Davy has won or placed in 17/47 handicaps at Cheltenham, a strike rate of 40%.

    The average SP of Davy’s winner’s is 10/1.

    He has lost on 1 favourite in 47 rides (Diamond King, Brown Advisory 2017)

    Race Summary

    His best strike rates are in the Pertemps 3/5, and Coral Cup 3/9
    Never finished outside the top 5 in the Grand Annual.
    Never finished inside the top 10 in the County Hurdle
    Placed 1/7 in Close Brothers
    He has placed in 3/5 Ultima’s

    Trainer Summary

    His record for Pat Kelly is 2/2
    His record for Arthur Moore from 5 runs is 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th.
    His record for A J Martin 2 wins from 5 runs. Rivage D’or & Savello
    He has won 4 times for Gordon from 14 rides

    #1400186
    charlie87
    charlie87
    Participant
    • Total Posts 770

    Venetia Williams Handicap Performance 2008 – 2018

    Nick, Ian and Evan made this far more time consuming than it had to be

    Runners / Winners / Losing Fav / Placed 1-3

    Ultima
    15 / 0 / 0 / 0

    Close Brothers
    10 / 0 / 0 / 0

    Cross Country (Handicap from 2008 – 2015)
    0 / 0 / 0 / 0

    Coral Cup
    6 / 0 / 0 / 0

    Fred Winter
    8 / 0 / 0 / 0

    Pertemps
    7 / 1 / 0 / 0
    2009 – Kayf Aramis 16/1

    Brown Advisory
    20 / 2 / 1 / 2
    2013 – Carrickboy 50/1
    2009 – Something Wells 33/1

    Kim Muir
    9 / 0 / 0 / 1

    Martin Pipe
    8 / 0 / 0 / 1

    County Hurdle
    5 / 0 / 0 / 0

    Grand Annual
    13 / 0 / 0 / 1

    Summary

    Total Handicap Runners: 101
    Winners: 3
    Placed: 3

    A £10 level stake across all her handicap runners from 2008-2018 would leave you down -£10

    Has never placed in the County Hurdle, Fred Winter, Coral Cup, Close Brothers or Ultima.

    This is actually a really straightforward one to sum up. Open your Racing Post each morning during the festival, turn to the Cheltenham cards, take a pen and unless you see ‘Brown Advisory’ listed as the race in question, put a line through every one of VW runners and move on.

    Season / Cheltenham Winners / Handicap Entries / Total NH Runners

    2018 – 0 – 5 – 305
    2017 – 0 – 9 – 312
    2016 – 0 – 8 – 419
    2015 – 0 – 9 – 441
    2014 – 0 – 10 – 574
    2013 – 1 – 14 – 533
    2012 – 0 – 11 – 401
    2011 – 0 – 9 – 372
    2010 – 0 – 7 – 404
    2009 – 2 – 13 – 424
    2008 – 0 – 6 – 465

    Conclusion with a view to Cheltenham

    Ignore every runner VW sends to the Cheltenham festival unless it runs in the Brown Advisory. I love it when trainers target a handicap and VW sends more horses down the Brown Advisory route than any other race.

    #1400187
    charlie87
    charlie87
    Participant
    • Total Posts 770

    Barry Geraghty Handicap Performance 2008 – 2018

    Year / Position / Horse / Price / Trainer

    Wins in bold
    Placed 2-4 in italics

    Ultima
    2016 / PU / Regal Encore / 25/1 / A J Honeyball
    2015 / 1st / The Druids Nephew / 8/1 / N P Mulholland
    2014 / 14th / Hadrian’s Approach / 8/1 / N J Henderson
    2013 / PU / Quantitativeeasing / 25/1 / N J Henderson
    2012 / PU / Mossley / 16/1 / N J Henderson
    2011 / 2nd / Carole’s Legacy / 9/1 / N J Henderson
    2010 / 12th / Character Building / 12/1 / JJ Quinn
    2009 / 12th / Golden Flight / 25/1 / N J Henderson

    Close Brothers
    2018 / PU / Demi Sang / 20/1 / W P Mullins
    2015 / 9th / Cocktails At Dawn / 14/1 / N J Henderson
    2014 / PU / Ericht / 13/2j / N J Henderson
    2012 / 11th / Triolo D’Alene / 7/1 / N J Henderson
    2011 / 11th / Nadiya De La Vega / 20/1 / N J Henderson
    2010 / 10th / Dave’s Dream / 10/1 / N J Henderson
    2009 / PU / Au Courant / 20/1 / N J Henderson
    2008 / 1st / Finger Onthe Pulse / 9/1 / T J Taaffe

    Cross Country (Handicap from 2008 – 2015)
    Never ridden in the race

    Coral Cup
    2018 / 15th / River Frost / 25/1 / A King
    2016 / 4th / Blazer / 8/1 / W P Mullins
    2015 / 6th / Hammersly Lake / 14/1 / N J Henderson
    2013 / 16th / Cash And Go / 10/1 / N J Henderson
    2012 / F / Spirit River / 16/1 / N J Henderson
    2011 / 5th / Solix / 25/1 / N J Henderson
    2010 / 1st / Solix / 14/1 / N J Henderson
    2009 / 10th / The Polomoche / 6/1f / N J Henderson

    Fred Winter
    2016 / F / Campeador / 8/1 / G Elliott
    2015 / 14th / Arabian Revolution / 7/1 / J P Ferguson
    2014 / 13th / Dawalan / 7/2f / N J Henderson
    2013 / 15th / Megalypos / 8/1 / N J Henderson
    2012 / PU / Soliwery / 22/1 / N J Henderson
    2011 / PU / Celtus / 12/1 / N J Henderson
    2009 / 16th / Higgy’s Boy / 12/1 / N J Henderson
    2008 / 6th / Siege Of Ennis / 28/1 / E P Harty

    Pertemps
    2018 / 2nd / Glenloe / 9/2f / G Elliott
    2016 / 9th / Leave At Dawn / 11/2f / C Byrnes
    2015 / 16th / Dawalan / 12/1 / N J Henderson
    2014 / 7th / Mister Dillon / 20/1 / N J Henderson
    2013 / 22nd / Top Of The Range / 8/1 / N J Henderson
    2012 / PU / Thehillofuisneach / 12/1 / Jonjo O’Neill
    2011 / PU / Lush Life / 10/1 / N J Henderson
    2010 / PU / Erzen / 20/1 / N J Henderson
    2009 / 13th / Galient / 14/1 / N J Henderson

    Brown Advisory
    2018 / PU / Movewiththetimes / 8/1 / P F Nicholls
    2016 / 21st / Hunt Ball / 16/1 / N J Henderson
    2014 / PU / Tap Night / 8/1 / Lucinda Russell
    2013 / 9th / Giorgio Quercus / 40/1 / N J Henderson
    2012 / 14th / Giorgio Quercus / 16/1 / N J Henderson
    2011 / F / You’re The Top / 16/1 / N J Henderson
    2010 / 13th / My Petra / 18/1 / N J Henderson
    2009 / 6th / Finger Onthe Pulse / 10/1 / T J Taaffe

    County Hurdle
    2018 / 14th / Bleu Et Rouge / 10/1 / W P Mullins
    2016 / PU / Great Field / 7/1J / W P Mullins
    2014 / 8th / Lyvius / 20/1 / N J Henderson
    2013 / 13th / Punjabi / 22/1 / N J Henderson
    2012 / 21st / Lifestyle / 33/1 / N J Henderson
    2011 / 11th / Soldatino / 11/1 / N J Henderson
    2010 / 17th / Bellvano / 11/1 / N J Henderson
    2009 / 6th / Dave’s Dream / 7/2f / N J Henderson
    2008 / 16th / Larkwing / 16/1 / E McNamara

    Grand Annual
    2018 / 1st / Le Prezien / 15/2 / P F Nicholls
    2016 / 9th / Eastlake / 12/1 / Jonjo O’Neill
    2014 / 9th / Tanks For That / 12/1 / N J Henderson
    2013 / 8th / French Opera / 20/1 / N J Henderson
    2012 / 2nd / Tanks For That / 9/1 / N J Henderson
    2011 / 18th / Tanks For That / 11/1 / N J Henderson
    2010 / PU / You’re The Top / 13/2f / N J Henderson
    2009 / PU / My Petra / 11/1 / N J Henderson

    Overall Summary

    Total Rides: 66 (44 for Nicky Henderson)
    Wins: 4 (6%)
    2nds: 3
    3rds: 0
    4ths: 1
    Losing Fav: 7
    PU: 16
    F: 2

    A £10 level stake across all his handicap runners from 2008-2018 would leave you down -£435
    44 rides for Nicky Henderson. 1 win. 2 places.
    25/66 have PU, F or lost as favourite.
    8/66 top 4 finishes
    13th or worse 37/66 times
    Never finished in the top 5 in the County Hurdle, Brown Advisory or Fred Winter
    Never run in the XC
    66% of his rides for Nicky Henderson but 75% of his winners with other trainers (P F Nicholls, N P Mulholland, T J Taaffe)

    Conclusion

    Going through Barry’s numbers makes me realise just how phenomenal Davy Russell’s handicap performance is.

    BG is 13th or worse 37/66 times, 25/66 have PU, F or lost as favourite – doesn’t make for great reading.

    He went through a truly baron spell for Nicky from 2011 – 2015, where he came 2nd in 2/30 rides, and then no better than 5th in the other 28.

    Matt Chapman’s response (link below) to someone questioning how Barry handles Cheltenham is superb and on point. BG is a top jockey, of that there is no doubt. That being said, the numbers presented here wouldn’t blow you away.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lgVBeWlcHW8&t=122s

    As I have said with some of the others, when you look at the success Barry has had in graded races at Cheltenham I doubt he gives two hoots about his handicap performance, nor should he, but as punters it is just something to be mindful of.

    #1400206
    peter .h
    peter .h
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1145

    Phenomenal stuff. I’ll be bearing all of this in mind!

    Great work.

    #1400294
    Nathan Hughes
    Nathan Hughes
    Participant
    • Total Posts 20469

    Fantastic work Charlie, thank you
    Deaf Jon won’t be very happy when I sow him the Venetia Williams stats

    Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
    #1400300
    BigG
    BigG
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5662

    Fascinating stuff Charlie, that’s a considerable bit of study that’s gone
    into that piece of fine work. You deserve a medal for that mate :good:

    #1400314
    steeplechasing
    steeplechasing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5648

    Thanks, Charlie. That’s the best piece of work I’ve seen for years.

    Never argue with a fool. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience, then onlookers might not be able to tell the difference. https://lazybet.com/

    #1400316
    Gladiateur
    Gladiateur
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1116

    Brilliant effort, Charlie. Thank you very much for a giving us all such detailed insight. :good:

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