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I made this on the Fat Jockey Forum and wanted to share here too.
JP McManus Handicap Performance 2008 – 2018
Runners / Winners / Losing Fav / Placed 1-3
Ultima
11 / 2 / 3 / 1
2 winners
2012 – Alfie Sherrin 14/1
2009 – Wichita Lineman 5/1fClose Brothers
14 / 0 / 2 / 3Cross Country (Handicap from 2008 – 2015)
21 / 2 / 3 / 5
2009 – Garde Champetre 7/2f (he had the 1,2,3 that year)
2008 – Garde Champetre 4/1Coral Cup
24 / 0 / 3 / 2Pertemps
27 / 0 / 3 / 4Brown Advisory
17 / 0 / 3 / 3Kim Muir
19 / 2 / 2 / 3
2016 – Cause Of Causes 9/2f
2012 – Sunnyhillboy 13/2Martin Pipe
16 / 0 / 2 / 1County Hurdle
30 / 1 / 3 / 1 / 2
2012 – Alderwood 20/1Grand Annual
26 / 3 / 3 / 2
2018 – Le Prezien 15/2
2013 – Alderwood 3/1f
2012 – Bellvano 20/1The ‘Plot’
Garde Champetre 2009 – 11-12 – top weight
Sunnyhillboy – 11-11 – 2/23 in the weights
Cause Of Causes – 11-9 – 5/22 in the weights
Garde Champetre 2008 – 10-13- 6/16 in the weights
Le Prezien 11-8 – 6/22 in the weights
Wichita Lineman – 10-9 – 12/21 in the weights
Alderwood 2012 – 11-1 – 13/26 in the weights
Alderwood 2013 – 10-11 – 13/23 in the weights
Bellvano – 10-2 – 15/21 in the weights
Alfie Sherrin – 10-0 – Bottom weightSummary
Total Handicap Runners: 205
Winners: 10 (4.8% strike rate)
Placed: 26 (12% strike rate)27 (13%) of JP handicap runners have gone off favourite.
4 (14%) of those went on to win.
In the last 10 years Pendra, Bouvreuil & Get Me Out Of Here accounted for 43% of all his placed runners.A £10 level stake across all his handicap runners from 2008-2018 would leave you down – £860.
The JP ‘plot job’ has little to no substance to it. Other than Alfie Sherrin who crept in off bottom weight, 50% of his winners were towards the top end of the weights. Nearly 15% of all his runners go off fav in handicaps because the public believe of ‘the plot’, but I suppose that’s good for the horses left in behind at bigger prices that we can all get stuck into.
JP Handicappers with Festival Experience/Form
Squouateur
2016 – Martin Pipe – 7/24
2017 – Kim Muir – UR
2018 – Kim Muir – 3/20Cheltenham 2019 – Kim Muir – 16/1
Bouvreuil
2015 – Fred Winter – 2/22
2016 – Close Brothers – 2/20
2017 – Brown Advisory – 3/24
2018 – Grand Annual – BDCheltenham 2019 – Grand Annual – 33/1
Ivanovich Gorbatov
2016 – Triumph* – 1/15
2017 – County Hurdle – 6/25
2018 – County Hurdle – 17/25Cheltenham 2019 – County Hurdle – 33/1
Le Prezien
2017 – Grand Annual – 8/24
2018 – Grand Annual – 1/22No Comment
2017 – Martin Pipe – 7/23
2018 – National Hunt Chase – 6/16Place Form 2018
Glenloe – Pertemps – 2/23
Early Doors – Martin Pipe – 3/23David Pipe Handicap Performance 2008 – 2018
Runners / Winners / Losing Fav / Placed 1-3
Ultima
14 / 3 / 1 / 2
2017 – Un Temps Pour Tout – 11-12 – 9/1
2016 – Un Temps Pour Tout – 11-7 – 11/1
2008 – An Accordion 7/1Close Brothers
5 / 0 / 0 / 0Cross Country (Handicap from 2008 – 2015)
1 / 0 / 0 / 0Coral Cup
15 / 0 / 1 / 0Pertemps
22 / 2 / 2 / 3
2011 – Buena Vista – 10-8 – 20/1
2010 – Buena Vista – 10-4 – 16/1Brown Advisory
18 / 3 / 2 / 2
2014 – Ballynagour 12/1
2012 – Salut Flo 9/2f
2010 – Great Endeavour 18/1Kim Muir
28 / 2 / 2 / 2
2015 – The Package 9/1
2011 – Junior 10/3fMartin Pipe
18 / 0 / 3 / 1County Hurdle
10 / 0 / 0 / 0Grand Annual
8 / 0 / 1 / 2Summary
Total Handicap Runners: 139
Winners: 10 (7%)
Placed: 12 (9.3%)12 (9%) of David Pipe trained horses have gone off favourite
2 (16%) of those went on to winA £10 level stake across all his handicap runners from 2008-2018 would leave you down -£220
Season / Cheltenham Winners / Handicap Entries / Total NH Runners
2018 – 0 – 7 – 361
2017 – 1 – 3 – 487
2016 – 1 – 4 571
2015 – 1 – 11 – 579
2014 – 1 – 10 591
2013 – 0 – 13 – 624
2012 – 1 – 16 632
2011 – 2 – 13 – 504
2010 – 2 – 12 – 562
2009 – 0 – 18 – 662
2008 – 1 – 14 – 698During the 2011-12 season David Pipe had 632 NH runners and 16 Handicap runners at Cheltenham
Last year, David Pipe had 361 NH runners and only 7 Handicap runners at Cheltenham.His number of NH runners have generally been on the decline which is reflected in the number he sends to Cheltenham. From 2008 -2015 he was always sending at least 10 handicappers to Cheltenham. In the last 3 years he has sent 14.
The ‘Plot’
Buena Vista & Un Temps Pour Tout account for 4/10 of his wins in the last decade.
I don’t think they can be described as plots. Un Temps Pour Tout was top weight when winning in 2017 & 9/23 in the weights when winning in 2016. Buena Vista was well handicapped when winning off 10-4 in 2010 which was 17/24 in the weights, and then off 10-8 in 2011 which was 11/22 in the weights
Conclusion
David Pipe places horses with festival form very well but the plot, similar to JP MacManus owned horses, is a myth. 9% of Pipe runners go off favourite in handicaps with only 2 of those going on to win. Pipe appears to have little interest in the Grand Annual, County Hurdle, Close Brothers and Cross Country. 46% of all his runners over the last decade have gone to the Kim Muir, Pertemps and Ultima.
Basically, he is not the force of old but because he has placed his horses well in the same races and landed a couple of back-to-back wins, there is this notion that Pipe ‘plot jobs’ happen regularly which they don’t.
Paul Nicholls Handicap Performance 2008 – 2018
Runners / Winners / Losing Fav / Placed 1-3
Ultima
12 / 0 / 0 / 0Close Brothers
13 / 1 / 2 / 1
2009 – Chapoturgeon 8/1Cross Country (Handicap from 2008 – 2015)
4 / 0 / 0 / 0Coral Cup
17 / 1 / 0 / 2
2015 – Aux Ptit Soins 9/1Pertemps
14 / 0 / 2 / 3Fred Winter
19 / 3 / 1 / 5
2016 – Diego Du Charmil 13/2 (1/2 with Diego Du Charmil & Romain De Senam)
2015 – Qualando 25/1 (1/2 with Qualando & Bouvreuil)
2010 – Sanctuaire 4/1jfBrown Advisory
17 / 0 / 1 / 2Kim Muir
8 / 0 / 0 / 0Martin Pipe
18 / 2 / 0 / 1
2016 – Ibis Du Rheu 14/1
2013 – Salubrious 16/1County Hurdle
16 / 2 / 1 / 1
2014 – Lac Fontana 11/1
2009 – American Trilogy 20/1Grand Annual
20 / 3 / 3 / 0
2018 – Le Prezien 15/2
2016 – Solar Impulse 28/1
2008 – Andreas 12/1Summary
Total Handicap Runners: 158
Winners: 12 (7.5% strike rate)
Placed: 15 (10%)10 out of his 12 winners are French Bred.
10 losing favourites
1 winning favouriteA £10 level stake across all his handicap runners from 2008-2018 would leave you up £130
His average priced winner is 16/1
Race Summary
His record in the Ultima, Kim Muir & Cross Country is not good. 24 runners, no winners, no places, no favourites. The same can be said for the Pertemps and Brown Advisory, 31 bullets and never won.
10 (83%) of his winners have come from the Fred Winter, Martin Pipe, County Hurdle and Grand Annual.
A £10 level stake across these 4 races would leave you up £810.
Season / Cheltenham Winners / Handicap Entries / Total NH Runners
Despite not having the graded horses he once did, his entries and handicap numbers are very consistent as you can see below:
2018 – 1 – 14 -576
2017 – 0 – 17 – 673
2016 – 3 – 19 – 568
2015 – 2 – 15 – 517
2014 – 1 – 17 – 587
2013 – 1 – 13 – 565
2012 – 0 – 10 – 598
2011 – 0 – 9 – 583
2010 – 1 – 16 – 533
2009 – 2 – 13 – 614
2008 – 1 – 16 – 610The ‘Plot’
With 1 winning favourite, 10 losing favourites and an average SP on winners of 16/1 the Paul Nicholls plot (which isn’t a common term anyway) does not exist. I am only mentioning that because of how this thread started.
It’s clear the vast majority of his handicap winners go under the radar.
Conclusion
Again, probably not reaching conclusions people on here haven’t reached already, but Paul Nicholls is a benchmark of consistency. He is consistently poor in the Ultima, Kim Muir, Cross Country, Pertemps and Brown Advisory, and consistently strong in the Fred Winter, Martin Pipe, County Hurdle and Grand Annual. 83% of his handicap winners in the last decade have come from these 4 races where he has won 10/73. 75% of his handicap winners have gone off double figure prices so don’t be put off by larger prices. I’l get round to creating a list of his potential runners in the Fred Winter, Martin Pipe, County Hurdle and Grand Annual at some point.
Jonjo O’Neill Handicap Performance 2008 – 2018
Ultima
15 / 3 / 2 / 1
2014 – Holywell 10/1
2012 – Alfie Sherrin 14/1
2009 – Wichita Lineman 5/1fClose Brothers
8 / 0 / 1 / 1Cross Country (Handicap from 2008 – 2015)
1 / 0 / 0 / 0Coral Cup
8 / 0 / 0 / 3Pertemps
15 / 1 / 0 / 0
2013 – Holywell 25/1Brown Advisory
10 / 0 / 3 / 1Kim Muir
19 / 1 / 0 / 1
2012 – Sunnyhillboy 13/2fMartin Pipe
10 / 0 / 0 / 0County Hurdle
10 / 0 / 0 / 2Grand Annual
8 / 0 / 0 / 1Summary
Total Handicap Runners: 104
Winners: 5 (4.8%)
Placed: 10 (10%)
Losing Favourites: 6 (5.7%)3 out of 5 of his winners have been in the Ultima.
He has never won the Close Brothers, Cross Country, Brown Advisory, Martin Pipe, County Hurdle or Grand Annual. He has sent more runners to the Kim Muir than any other race and had more losing favourites than any other race.
A £10 level stake across all his handicap runners from 2008-2018 would leave you down £385
Season / Cheltenham Winners / Handicap Entries / Total NH Runners
2018 – 0 – 3 – 553
2017 – 0 – 10 – 689
2016 – 0 – 17 – 560
2015 – 0 – 9 – 634
2014 – 1 – 13 – 810
2013 – 1 – 11 – 705
2012 – 2 – 8 – 649
2011 – 0 – 7 – 750
2010 – 0 – 12 – 723
2009 – 1 – 14 – 623
2008 – 0 – 6 – 716Conclusion
It’s been a quiet few years at Cheltenham for Jonjo with all his winners coming between 2009 – 2014. He had his lowest number of total runners last season and lowest number of Cheltenham handicap entries last year
Holywell accounts for 2 of his 5 wins in handicaps at Cheltenham. Hardly crept in at 11/22 in the weights in the Pertemps Final and 6/23 in the weights when winning the Ultima. Alfie Sherrin actually was a bit of a plot (which I covered in the JP thread).
Similarly to others analysed, his ratio of winners to losing favourites is similar with 5 winners and 6 losing favourites (Pipe had 11 losing favourites and 10 winners, Nicholls had 10 losing favourites and 12 winners).
Outside of Holywell all his winners have been JP MacManus owned. Bar Johns Spirit, all of his losing favourites have also been owned by JP MacManus:
Alfie Sherrin, Sunnyhillboy – Ultima
Kia Kaha – Close Brothers
Colour Squadron, Sunnyhillboy – Close BrothersThis prompted me to look at horses that are JP owned and non-JP owned
Ultima – 7 v 8
Close Brothers – 4 v 4
Cross Country 1 v 0
Coral Cup – 5 v 3
Pertemps – 11 v 4
Brown Advisory 5 v 5
Kim Muir 10 v 9
Martin Pipe 7 v 3
County 7 v 3
Grand Annual 8 v 0 (5 for Eastlake)63% of his 104 handicap entries have been owned by JP MacManus, with 5/6 of his losing favourites being owned by JP MacManus. I’d say they are more heavily punted than most.
I’ve had plenty of great days backing Jonjo’s but cant help feeling most of those days are behind me now.
Gigginstown House Stud Handicap Performance 2008 – 2018
Ultima
2 / 0 / 0 / 0Close Brothers
6 / 0 / 0 / 0Cross Country (Handicap from 2008 – 2015)
2 / 1 / 0 / 0
2015 – Rivage D’Or 16/1Coral Cup
7 / 0 / 1 / 1Pertemps
4 / 1 / 0 / 0
2018 – Delta Work 6/1Brown Advisory
4 / 2 / 0 / 1
2017 – Road To Respect 14/1
2016 – Empire Of Dirt 16/1Kim Muir
3 / 0 / 0 / 1Martin Pipe
10 / 4 / 1 / 2
2018 – Blow By Blow 11/1
2017 – Champagne Classic 12/1
2014 – Don Poli 12/1
2011 – Sir Des Champs 9/2fCounty Hurdle
8 / 0 / 0 / 0Grand Annual
4 / 1 / 0 / 0
2014 – Savello 16/1Summary
Total Handicap Runners: 50
Winners: 9 (18%)
Placed: 5 (9.6%)A £10 level stake across all Gigginstown horses would leave you up £665
Trainer / Runners / Winners / Place / Beat Fav
G Elliott / 22 / 3 / 4 /2
W P Mullins / 9 / 2 / 1 / 1
A J Martin 5 / 2 / 0 / 0
N Meade 3 / 1 / 0 / 0
C A Murphy 1 / 1 / 0 / 0Gordon wins or places 31% of all handicaps
Races
Obviously their record in the Martin Pipe is phenomenal, with 4 of their 10 runners winning the race.
One winning favourite in Sir Des Champs. The average price of their other 8 winners is 11/1, hence why the return off £10 level stakes is so high.
Never won the Ultima, Close Brothers, Coral Cup, Kim Muir or County Hurdle.
Season / Cheltenham Winners / Handicap Entries / Total NH Runners (Ireland)
2018 – 2 – 5 – 940
2017 – 2 – 8 – 877
2016 – 1 – 3 – 653
2015 – 1 – 7 – 660
2014 – 2 – 3 – 608
2013 – 0 – 9 – 504
2012 – 0 – 6 – 439
2011 – 1 – 6 – 442
2010 – 0 – 0 – 318
2009 – 0 – 2 – 300
2008 – 0 – 1 – 241Conclusion
We all know the regard Michael O’Leary holds for handicaps at Cheltenham, but even still, their record is superb. I always think of Gigginstown as mob handed at Cheltenham but they have never sent more than 10 horses handicapping at the festival in one year which I found quite surprising. To put that into perspective, JP McManus sent 155 more horses to handicaps over the last decade than Gigginstown. It is particularly noticeable when you look at the number of horses in Gigginstown’s ownership and the number of runners they have each season in Ireland.
Their win to run ratio in the last 5 years is very good, to put it lightly. Gordon Elliot now trains 44% of all their entries. Willie had a better strike rate than Gordon (22%) but that’s now irrelevant after the fallout over training fees.
Have run 3 or less runners in the Ultima (2) and Kim Muir (3), so little interest. Have won the Pertemps (4) and Cross Country (2) once, with 4 or less runners. Again, little interest.
Their record in the Martin Pipe and Brown Advisory is superb, having sent 14 runners and won 6 times at an average price of 11/1. I’l be keeping a keen eye out on their horses in these races.
Nicky Henderson Handicap Performance 2008 – 2018
Runners / Winners / Losing Fav / Placed 1-3
Ultima
13 / 0 / 1 / 2Close Brothers
21 / 1 / 1 / 5
2013 – Rajdhani Express 16/1Cross Country (Handicap from 2008 – 2015)
0 / 0 / 0 / 0Fred Winter
14 / 1 / 2 / 2
2012 – Une Artiste 40/1Coral Cup
32 / 2 / 2 / 1
2014 – Whisper 14/1
2010 – Spirit River 14/1Pertemps
15 / 1 / 0 / 0
2015 – Call The Cops 9/1Brown Advisory
19 / 0 / 0 / 0Kim Muir
13 / 0 / 0 / 2Martin Pipe
25 / 1 / 1 / 3
2009 – Andytown 25/1County Hurdle
17 / 0 / 1 / 1Grand Annual
29 / 1 / 3 / 6
2012 – Bellvano 20/1Summary
Total Handicap Runners: 198
Winners: 7 (3.5%)
Placed: 24 (12.4%)A £10 level stake across all his handicap runners from 2008-2018 would leave you down – £530, and that’s keeping in mind 4 of his 7 winners won at 40/1, 25/1, 20/1 and 16/1.
Season / Cheltenham Winners / Handicap Entries / Total NH Runners
2018 – 0 – 19 – 524
2017 – 0 – 16 – 618
2016 – 0 – 14 – 414
2015 – 1 – 15 – 499
2014 – 1 – 22 – 514
2013 – 1 – 19 – 509
2012 – 2 – 23 – 627
2011 – 0 – 22 – 612
2010 – 1 – 20 – 511
2009 – 1 – 19 – 499
2008 – 0 – 9 – 377Races
Never won the County Hurdle, Kim Muir, Brown Advisory or Ultima, having tried with 62 runners, 5 of which placed. In the Brown Advisory Nicky sends an average of 2 runners per year and has never once placed. Other than Call The Cops in 2015, Nicky has never placed in 34 attempts in the Pertemps and Brown Advisory
Never sent a runner cross country.
44% of all his runners go Coral Cup, Martin Pipe and Grand Annual. 6/11 losing favorites comes from these races.
It’s quite difficult to draw any meaningful trends/conclusions as 6/7 winners have come from different races spread across a number of years.
Conclusions
I love Nicky Henderson. His record in graded races at the Cheltenham Festival is second to none and should be applauded by all, but this success does not spill over into the handicaps (I doubt he gives one single **** when you look at his record on the Champion Hurdle, RSA, Champion Chase etc).
In the last 10 years 11/198 Nicky Henderson handicap entries have gone off favorite. None have won at the Cheltenham Festival.
His 7/198 winners have won with an average SP of 20/1, with 6/7 being won in different races.
Comparing to a trainer of similar size (stable wise ), Paul Nicholls has trained 5 more handicap winners than Nicky with 40 less attempts over the last 10 years, and posts a positive ROI of +£130 across all his runners, vs
– £530 for backing all of Nicky’s. Were it not for some big priced winners you would have done your absolute bollocks following Nicky Henderson over the last decade in handicaps at Cheltenham.Nicky hasn’t won a handicap since 2015 at Cheltenham despite averaging 1 a year since 2008.
Paul and Nicky have had 1/22 winning favs between them at Cheltenham over the last 10 years.
Like I said at the start, Nicky will be dreaming about BVD and Altior doing the business and not whether or not he can land the Ultima for the first time, but I thought it made for interesting reading for us punters nonetheless
Willie Mullins Handicap Performance 2008 – 2018
Runners / Winners / Losing Fav / Placed 1-3
Ultima
0 / 0 / 0 / 0Close Brothers
4 / 0 / 0 / 1Cross Country (Handicap from 2008 – 2015)
10 / 0 / 1 / 1Coral Cup
26 / 1 / 3 / 1
2018 – Bleu Berry 20/1Fred Winter
10 / 0 / 0 / 0Pertemps
3 / 0 / 0 / 1Brown Advisory
4 / 0 / 0 / 0Kim Muir
6 / 0 / 0 / 0Martin Pipe
18 / 3 / 2 / 1
2015 – Killultagh Vic 7/1
2014 – Don Poli 12/1
2011 – Sir Des Champs 9/2fCounty Hurdle
27 / 4 / 1 / 3
2017 – Arctic Fire 20/1
2015 – Wicklow Brave 25/1
2011 – Final Approach 10/1
2010 – Thousand Stars 20/1Grand Annual
4 / 0 / 1 / 0Summary
Total Handicap Runners: 112
Winners: 8 (7%)
Placed: 8 (7.6%)A £10 level stake across all his handicap runners from 2008-2018 would leave you up +£145
Season / Cheltenham Winners / Handicap Entries / Total NH Runners (Ireland only)
2018 – 1 – 17 – 797
2017 – 1 – 10 – 571
2016 – 0 – 14 – 557
2015 – 2 – 18 – 554
2014 – 1 – 13 – 665
2013 – 0 – 15 – 595
2012 – 0 – 6 – 498
2011 – 2 – 7 – 467
2010 – 1 – 10 – 545
2009 – 0 – 1 – 514
2008 – 0 – 0 – 562Races
Never sent a horse to the Ultima. 22 (20%) of his horses have run in the Close Brothers, Pertemps, Brown Advisory, Kim Muir and Grand Annual. He has never won those 6 races, or the Fred Winter and Cross Country.
He has sent 42 horses to 8/11 handicaps, all of which he has never won.
71 (63%) of all Willies runners go to the Coral Cup, Martin Pipe and County Hurdle. 100% of all his handicap winners have come from these races.
A £10 level stake across all his handicap runners in the Coral Cup, Martin Pipe and County Hurdle from 2008-2018 would leave you up +£555
P Townend is his most successful handicap jockey having won twice and been third twice.
Average priced winner is 14/1. He has 1 winning favourite, 8 losing favourites.
Conclusion
The 2 things that surprised me were the number of handicappers he has sent to the festival (lower than I thought) and how clearly he targets specific races.
I thought 83% of Paul Nicholls winners coming from 4 races (Fred Winter, Martin Pipe, County Hurdle, Grand Annual) was a stand out stat, but 100% of Willie Mullins handicap winners over the last decade have come from the Coral Cup, Martin Pipe and County Hurdle.
With an average SP of 14/1 you would be in the gravy backing his horses off level stakes in just these 3 races. I would be weary with the Coral Cup but his performance in the Martin Pipe & County Hurdle are exceptional.
Davy Russell Handicap Performance 2008 – 2018
The owner & trainer analysis has been so well received I thought I would look at Davy Russell’s handicap performance over the last decade.
In short, the man is a genius in handicaps around Cheltenham and would probably be the first person to credit the trainers and owners for giving him the opportunity. The numbers do the talking, no more need be said.
Year / Position / Horse / Price / Trainer
Wins in bold
Placed 2-4 in italicsUltima
2017 / 3rd / Noble Endeavor / 15/2 / G Elliott
2016 / 4th / Morning Assembly / 10/1 / P A Fahy
2014 / F / Vintage Star / 16/1 / Mrs S J Smith
2009 / 14th / Cailin Alainn / 13/2 / C Byrnes
2008 / 2nd / New Alco / 10/1 / Ferdy MurphyClose Brothers
2018 / PU / De Plotting Shed / 11/2 / G Elliott
2017 / 3rd / Two Taffs / 7/1 / D Skelton
2013 / PU / Carlito Brigante / 8/1 / G Elliott
2012 / 15th / Going Wrong / 9/1 / Ferdy Murphy
2011 / 6th / Tharawaat / 14/1 / G Elliott
2009 / 9th / Slash And Burn / 20/1 / C F Swan
2008 / 10th / Lord Ryeford / 20/1 / T R GeorgeCross Country (Handicap from 2008 – 2015)
2015 / 1st / Rivage D’Or / 16/1 / A J Martin
2011 / RO / One Cool Cookie / 16/1 / C F Swan
2010 / 13th / Preists Leap / 33/1 / T G O’Leary
2009 / 5th / Dix Villez / 8/1 / P Nolan
2008 / 2nd / Native Jack / 40/1 / P J RothwellCoral Cup
2018 / PU / Diamond King / 33/1 / G Elliott
2016 / 1st / Diamond King / 12/1 / G Elliott
2014 / PU / Party Rock / 28/1 / Jennie Candlish
2013 / F / Un Beau Matin / 16/1 / G Elliott
2012 / PU / Carlito Brigante / 16/1 / G Elliott
2011 / 1st / Carlito Brigante / 16/1 / G Elliott
2010 / 13th / Psycho / 7/1 / A J Martin
2009 / 1st / Naiad du Misselot / 7/1 / Ferdy Murphy
2008 / 10th / Ross River / 14/1 / A J MartinFred Winter
2017 / 10th / Long Call / 9/1 / A J MartinPertemps
2018 / 1st / Delta Work / 6/1 / G Elliott
2017 / 1st / Presenting Percy / 11/1 / P G Kelly
2016 / 1st / Mall Dini / 14/1 / P G Kelly
2013 / 8th / Stonemaster / 14/1 / D T Hughes
2010 / PU / Time Electric / 16/1 / T MullinsBrown Advisory
2018 / 1st / The Storyteller / 5/1f / G Elliott
2017 / PU / Diamond King / 5/1f / G Elliott
2010 / PU / Made In Taipan / 25/1 / T Mullins
2009 / 3rd / Notable D’Estruval / 8/1 / A L T MooreCounty Hurdle
2018 / 11th / Ben Dundee / 12/1 / G Elliott
2015 / 18th / Rich Coast / 25/1 / N Meade
2011 / 21st / Grey Soldier / 14/1 / G Elliott
2010 / 18th / Bahrain Storm / 33/1 / P J Flynn
2008 / 13th / Eagle’s Pass / 16/1 / T J O’MaraGrand Annual
2018 / 3rd / Top Gamble / 8/1 / Kerry Lee
2017 / 4th / Dandridge / 13/2 / A L T Moore
2016 / 2nd / Dandridge / 8/1 / A L T Moore
2014 / 1st / Savello / 16/1 / A J Martin
2009 / 5th / Tiger Cry / 14/1 / A L T Moore
2008 / 1st / Tiger Cry / 15/2 / A L T MooreOverall Summary
Total Rides: 47
Wins: 10 (21%)2nds: 3 (6%)
3rds: 4 (8%)
4ths: 2 (4%)A £10 level stake across all his handicap runners from 2008-2018 would leave you up +£735.
Assuming you are paid 1-4 on a place, Davy has won or placed in 17/47 handicaps at Cheltenham, a strike rate of 40%.
The average SP of Davy’s winner’s is 10/1.
He has lost on 1 favourite in 47 rides (Diamond King, Brown Advisory 2017)
Race Summary
His best strike rates are in the Pertemps 3/5, and Coral Cup 3/9
Never finished outside the top 5 in the Grand Annual.
Never finished inside the top 10 in the County Hurdle
Placed 1/7 in Close Brothers
He has placed in 3/5 Ultima’sTrainer Summary
His record for Pat Kelly is 2/2
His record for Arthur Moore from 5 runs is 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th.
His record for A J Martin 2 wins from 5 runs. Rivage D’or & Savello
He has won 4 times for Gordon from 14 ridesVenetia Williams Handicap Performance 2008 – 2018
Nick, Ian and Evan made this far more time consuming than it had to be
Runners / Winners / Losing Fav / Placed 1-3
Ultima
15 / 0 / 0 / 0Close Brothers
10 / 0 / 0 / 0Cross Country (Handicap from 2008 – 2015)
0 / 0 / 0 / 0Coral Cup
6 / 0 / 0 / 0Fred Winter
8 / 0 / 0 / 0Pertemps
7 / 1 / 0 / 0
2009 – Kayf Aramis 16/1Brown Advisory
20 / 2 / 1 / 2
2013 – Carrickboy 50/1
2009 – Something Wells 33/1Kim Muir
9 / 0 / 0 / 1Martin Pipe
8 / 0 / 0 / 1County Hurdle
5 / 0 / 0 / 0Grand Annual
13 / 0 / 0 / 1Summary
Total Handicap Runners: 101
Winners: 3
Placed: 3A £10 level stake across all her handicap runners from 2008-2018 would leave you down -£10
Has never placed in the County Hurdle, Fred Winter, Coral Cup, Close Brothers or Ultima.
This is actually a really straightforward one to sum up. Open your Racing Post each morning during the festival, turn to the Cheltenham cards, take a pen and unless you see ‘Brown Advisory’ listed as the race in question, put a line through every one of VW runners and move on.
Season / Cheltenham Winners / Handicap Entries / Total NH Runners
2018 – 0 – 5 – 305
2017 – 0 – 9 – 312
2016 – 0 – 8 – 419
2015 – 0 – 9 – 441
2014 – 0 – 10 – 574
2013 – 1 – 14 – 533
2012 – 0 – 11 – 401
2011 – 0 – 9 – 372
2010 – 0 – 7 – 404
2009 – 2 – 13 – 424
2008 – 0 – 6 – 465Conclusion with a view to Cheltenham
Ignore every runner VW sends to the Cheltenham festival unless it runs in the Brown Advisory. I love it when trainers target a handicap and VW sends more horses down the Brown Advisory route than any other race.
Barry Geraghty Handicap Performance 2008 – 2018
Year / Position / Horse / Price / Trainer
Wins in bold
Placed 2-4 in italicsUltima
2016 / PU / Regal Encore / 25/1 / A J Honeyball
2015 / 1st / The Druids Nephew / 8/1 / N P Mulholland
2014 / 14th / Hadrian’s Approach / 8/1 / N J Henderson
2013 / PU / Quantitativeeasing / 25/1 / N J Henderson
2012 / PU / Mossley / 16/1 / N J Henderson
2011 / 2nd / Carole’s Legacy / 9/1 / N J Henderson
2010 / 12th / Character Building / 12/1 / JJ Quinn
2009 / 12th / Golden Flight / 25/1 / N J HendersonClose Brothers
2018 / PU / Demi Sang / 20/1 / W P Mullins
2015 / 9th / Cocktails At Dawn / 14/1 / N J Henderson
2014 / PU / Ericht / 13/2j / N J Henderson
2012 / 11th / Triolo D’Alene / 7/1 / N J Henderson
2011 / 11th / Nadiya De La Vega / 20/1 / N J Henderson
2010 / 10th / Dave’s Dream / 10/1 / N J Henderson
2009 / PU / Au Courant / 20/1 / N J Henderson
2008 / 1st / Finger Onthe Pulse / 9/1 / T J TaaffeCross Country (Handicap from 2008 – 2015)
Never ridden in the raceCoral Cup
2018 / 15th / River Frost / 25/1 / A King
2016 / 4th / Blazer / 8/1 / W P Mullins
2015 / 6th / Hammersly Lake / 14/1 / N J Henderson
2013 / 16th / Cash And Go / 10/1 / N J Henderson
2012 / F / Spirit River / 16/1 / N J Henderson
2011 / 5th / Solix / 25/1 / N J Henderson
2010 / 1st / Solix / 14/1 / N J Henderson
2009 / 10th / The Polomoche / 6/1f / N J HendersonFred Winter
2016 / F / Campeador / 8/1 / G Elliott
2015 / 14th / Arabian Revolution / 7/1 / J P Ferguson
2014 / 13th / Dawalan / 7/2f / N J Henderson
2013 / 15th / Megalypos / 8/1 / N J Henderson
2012 / PU / Soliwery / 22/1 / N J Henderson
2011 / PU / Celtus / 12/1 / N J Henderson
2009 / 16th / Higgy’s Boy / 12/1 / N J Henderson
2008 / 6th / Siege Of Ennis / 28/1 / E P HartyPertemps
2018 / 2nd / Glenloe / 9/2f / G Elliott
2016 / 9th / Leave At Dawn / 11/2f / C Byrnes
2015 / 16th / Dawalan / 12/1 / N J Henderson
2014 / 7th / Mister Dillon / 20/1 / N J Henderson
2013 / 22nd / Top Of The Range / 8/1 / N J Henderson
2012 / PU / Thehillofuisneach / 12/1 / Jonjo O’Neill
2011 / PU / Lush Life / 10/1 / N J Henderson
2010 / PU / Erzen / 20/1 / N J Henderson
2009 / 13th / Galient / 14/1 / N J HendersonBrown Advisory
2018 / PU / Movewiththetimes / 8/1 / P F Nicholls
2016 / 21st / Hunt Ball / 16/1 / N J Henderson
2014 / PU / Tap Night / 8/1 / Lucinda Russell
2013 / 9th / Giorgio Quercus / 40/1 / N J Henderson
2012 / 14th / Giorgio Quercus / 16/1 / N J Henderson
2011 / F / You’re The Top / 16/1 / N J Henderson
2010 / 13th / My Petra / 18/1 / N J Henderson
2009 / 6th / Finger Onthe Pulse / 10/1 / T J TaaffeCounty Hurdle
2018 / 14th / Bleu Et Rouge / 10/1 / W P Mullins
2016 / PU / Great Field / 7/1J / W P Mullins
2014 / 8th / Lyvius / 20/1 / N J Henderson
2013 / 13th / Punjabi / 22/1 / N J Henderson
2012 / 21st / Lifestyle / 33/1 / N J Henderson
2011 / 11th / Soldatino / 11/1 / N J Henderson
2010 / 17th / Bellvano / 11/1 / N J Henderson
2009 / 6th / Dave’s Dream / 7/2f / N J Henderson
2008 / 16th / Larkwing / 16/1 / E McNamaraGrand Annual
2018 / 1st / Le Prezien / 15/2 / P F Nicholls
2016 / 9th / Eastlake / 12/1 / Jonjo O’Neill
2014 / 9th / Tanks For That / 12/1 / N J Henderson
2013 / 8th / French Opera / 20/1 / N J Henderson
2012 / 2nd / Tanks For That / 9/1 / N J Henderson
2011 / 18th / Tanks For That / 11/1 / N J Henderson
2010 / PU / You’re The Top / 13/2f / N J Henderson
2009 / PU / My Petra / 11/1 / N J HendersonOverall Summary
Total Rides: 66 (44 for Nicky Henderson)
Wins: 4 (6%)
2nds: 3
3rds: 0
4ths: 1
Losing Fav: 7
PU: 16
F: 2A £10 level stake across all his handicap runners from 2008-2018 would leave you down -£435
44 rides for Nicky Henderson. 1 win. 2 places.
25/66 have PU, F or lost as favourite.
8/66 top 4 finishes
13th or worse 37/66 times
Never finished in the top 5 in the County Hurdle, Brown Advisory or Fred Winter
Never run in the XC
66% of his rides for Nicky Henderson but 75% of his winners with other trainers (P F Nicholls, N P Mulholland, T J Taaffe)Conclusion
Going through Barry’s numbers makes me realise just how phenomenal Davy Russell’s handicap performance is.
BG is 13th or worse 37/66 times, 25/66 have PU, F or lost as favourite – doesn’t make for great reading.
He went through a truly baron spell for Nicky from 2011 – 2015, where he came 2nd in 2/30 rides, and then no better than 5th in the other 28.
Matt Chapman’s response (link below) to someone questioning how Barry handles Cheltenham is superb and on point. BG is a top jockey, of that there is no doubt. That being said, the numbers presented here wouldn’t blow you away.
As I have said with some of the others, when you look at the success Barry has had in graded races at Cheltenham I doubt he gives two hoots about his handicap performance, nor should he, but as punters it is just something to be mindful of.
Fantastic work Charlie, thank you
Deaf Jon won’t be very happy when I sow him the Venetia Williams statsGaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Fascinating stuff Charlie, that’s a considerable bit of study that’s gone
into that piece of fine work. You deserve a medal for that mate
Brilliant effort, Charlie. Thank you very much for a giving us all such detailed insight.
That is just superb studying Charlie
I love the stats stuff and I am sure I will be influenced by your studies!!
Lets hope they chuck some good winners at us
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