Outsiders – Dry Run

[Gerald]

As is my style, I’m going off half-cocked here, and at the wrong time of year, when I should be gearing up for the Flat. Have only read bits of the Tail-End book so far.

Aim
Picking winners 9/1 or greater.

The Rules
H’cap Hdles & Chases Classes 3-6
Look at horses from the outsider inwards. I’ll use the Betfair market, instead of the Racing Post forecast
Try to pay attention to facts, rather than opinion.
If I deem a horse has a reasonable chance of being placed, irrespective of the other horses in the race, he is a selection.
I will have a maximum of TWO selections, plus an UNLIMITED number of course winners.

Okay, lets begin.

3.35 Hexham 4m H’cap Chase Soft.
Korelo YES. [/color:28l90ik3] Has just had a 20lb drop in h’cap to 85. 3rd in Eider 25 Feb 06 . Has completed the course last twice over inadequate trips. last run was prominent, and challenged 6 out. Just needs to be fitter this time.

Bellaney Jewel YES.[/color:28l90ik3] Course winner – Ran twice, won twice (Hurdles). By Roselier . Won Scottish Borders National 2 years ago off 4lbs lower mark. 5lbs higher than when won at Aintree by 6 lengths in the autumn.

I’ll look at the other 3 H’caps at Hexham tomorrow morning. I wonder whether I’ll be capable of saying NO to a horse?

4.15 Hexham 2m CJ Mares’ H’cap Hdle Soft
Ethel Briggs NO.[/color:28l90ik3] Has been running 2.5m, and might be better over 2m. Bumper form reasonable. First run in a h’cap.
Mini Minster YES[/color:28l90ik3]. Hexham record 411. Won this last year. Disappointing last twice, but Owner-Trainer will keep his own counsel.
Watch The Wind [/color:28l90ik3]Maiden. Has been chasing. Came 3rd in a Mares’ Nov H’cap H’dle last time. Well, ok, she’s got a good chance of getting placed, because she did the same thing last time, although I find it hard to think she’ll win. The system answer is YES.[/color:28l90ik3]
Pimbo Lane[/color:28l90ik3] Not a course winner.
Just Posh[/color:28l90ik3] Not a course winner.

4.55 Hexham 2m4f H’cap Chase Soft
Tully Hill NO.[/color:28l90ik3] 2nd 33/1[/color:28l90ik3]
Bullies Acre YES.[/color:28l90ik3] Came 3rd 2 runs ago, off same mark.
Flaming Heck YES.[/color:28l90ik3] Won at Hexham 03May08, same mark.

5.25 Hexham 3m H’cap H’dle Soft
Henbeck Lady NO.[/color:28l90ik3]
Newgate Suds NO[/color:28l90ik3].
Amjad [/color:28l90ik3] A dodgy YES[/color:28l90ik3]. Came never dangerous 4th in 15 runner Sell H’cap H’dle at Hexham, 2 runs ago, off a 1 lb higher mark.
Sportula YES[/color:28l90ik3]. 2nd in a Nov Hdle 2 runs ago. However, 1st run for 201 days.
King’s Guard [/color:28l90ik3]Not a course winner. Won 12/1[/color:28l90ik3]
Finbin [/color:28l90ik3] Not a course winner. 2nd 9/2**, but available much, much bigger earlier[/color:28l90ik3]
Quay Meadow [/color:28l90ik3]Not a course winner. 3rd 15/2[/color:28l90ik3]
King’s Guard, Finbin & Quay Meadow weren’t rejected – it was just because I already had 2 selections I was only prepared to consider them if they were course winners.
[/color:28l90ik3]
SELECTIONS[/color:28l90ik3]
3.35 Hexham +£15.20, after 5% deduction on profit in race[/color:28l90ik3]
Korolo
Bellaney Jewel 1st, got 10.0 on betfair[/color:28l90ik3]

4.15 Hexham -£4.00[/color:28l90ik3]
Mini Minster 3rd[/color:28l90ik3]
Watch The Wind

4.55 Hexham -£4.00[/color:28l90ik3]
Bullies Acre
Flaming Heck

5.25 Hexham -£6.00 (splashed out)[/color:28l90ik3]
Amjad
Sportula (I think something went wrong with the tack, but it is hard to judge on a 1.5" by 2" screen)

RUNNING TOTAL +£1.20[/color:28l90ik3]

[Gerald]

I lost internet connectivity at 4am this morning, and didn’t get it back until 2pm.
I only had a chance to study 1 horse, and then had to wait until 7am to buy a copy of the Racing Post. It doesn’t have all the information I want, and I stopped making notes.

14.20 Fakenham 2m Sell H’cap Hdle Gd to Sft

Safe Investment [/color:1pt3xzbf]I originally said NO. I considered YES, because it had had a break, and then a tune-up on the Flat. What put me off, was that there was no good form to return to (over the jumps). Ran in this last year:- "Behind, passed some reluctant animals on the final circuit, never on terms." The bit about reluctant animals made me chuckle, but because my link ( and every other Orange customer in East and South-East Kent) went down I started to read a bit more of Ross Newton’s book. I found it amusing that 5 of his first 7 Example Races are won by an Owner-Trained horse without him saying anything about it. (I think the final total is 10 out of 33, but I was adding it up in my head.) I then realised that because the horse was gaining ground, then he is a YES[/color:1pt3xzbf]. He just needs not to get behind in the first place this time!
You see, that is why I couldn’t study them properly in the paper – they don’t have last year’s race amongst the info.
Government NO
Arthurian ?
Mr Tambourine Man YES
Mount Usher NO
Keyneema NO 1st[/color:1pt3xzbf]
Princess Stephanie YES
Erricarrow y
Anduril

1535 Fakenham 2m 5.5 f H’cap Chase Gd to Sft

Craven NO
Robin De Sherwood YES
High Oscar YES[/color:1pt3xzbf]
Ocean Du Moulin YES [/color:1pt3xzbf]course winner
Pasagai YES[/color:1pt3xzbf]

1655 Fakenham 2m H’cap H’dle Gd to Sft

Kyathos NO
Tampa Boy YES
Picky YES[/color:1pt3xzbf]
Prize Fighter YES[/color:1pt3xzbf]

Okay, so I’m already breaking the rule about not having more than one selection in a race. However, as betfair was unavailable, I went to the Tote shop. I was too embarrassed to hand in slips with 3, 4 or 5 horses selected in the same race, so this is what I actually bet:-

2.20 Fakenham +£8.40[/color:1pt3xzbf]
Safe Investment £2 win, £2 place tote 2nd 33/1, tote place £8.20[/color:1pt3xzbf]
Mr Tambourine Man £2 win tote
Princess Stephanie £2 win tote

3.35 Fakenham -£2.00[/color:1pt3xzbf]
Robin De Sherwood £2 win tote

4.55 Fakenham -£8.00
[/color:1pt3xzbf]Tampa Boy £2 win tote
Prize Fighter £2 win tote
Later backed Proper Article 18.0 and Picky 10.0 on Betfair – I was just headbanging, taking on the odds-on favourite.

Hopefully, normal service will be resumed tomorrow.

Safe Investment came 2nd, but I haven’t found out yet what it paid on the tote. Keyneema won the 2.20, and I haven’t investigated yet why I dismissed it.

I’ll annotate yesterday’s results later this evening.

b/f +£1.20
today -£1.60
c/f -£0.40[/color:1pt3xzbf]

[robnorth]

I went to the Tote shop. I was too embarrassed to hand in slips with 3, 4 or 5 horses selected in the same race

Gerald

If you think a bet is logical be it on one horse or ten horses, NEVER be embarassed to hand it in. Why let that worry allow you to miss a winner?

These are well thought out selections, so don’t let any slip by.

Rob

[Gerald]

Saturday 14 March 2009[/color:7hwnhtp0]

1405 Uttoxeter 3m Novices’ H’cap Chase Soft

Silly Wupple.[/color:7hwnhtp0] Dropped 8 lbs. Has PU last twice, but won 2 Novice Chases in the Autumn. Ground no problem. He is the complete outsider, but if returning to form will be bang there. YES.[/color:7hwnhtp0]
Its In The Stars [/color:7hwnhtp0] PU last time, but has place claims on previous run. Won Uttoxeter bumper on Heavy ground on debut. YES.[/color:7hwnhtp0]
Kates Gift[/color:7hwnhtp0]
Nicto De Beauchene[/color:7hwnhtp0]
Andrew Nick[/color:7hwnhtp0] Course winner in the autumn. This one was PU last twice as well. I suppose I have to pick him, so as not to be a victim of Sod’s law. (Preceded autumn victory by being Pulled Up.) Owner-trainer, so should be able to get a good price. YES.[/color:7hwnhtp0]

1435 Uttoxeter 2m6f H’cap H’dle (Class 2) Gd to Sft

Okay, so its a Class 2, but hey, its on the telly.
Mumbles Head [/color:7hwnhtp0] First run for 676 days. Dropped 7 lbs. All good form on sharp or flat tracks. NO.[/color:7hwnhtp0] I’d like to back this if it runs at Aintree or Perth in April & May.
Boomerang [/color:7hwnhtp0] Been chasing, fell heavily last time. Confidence booster? Not particularly well handicapped. No form on Soft ground (I’m being influenced bt the Chase course being Soft.) NO.[/color:7hwnhtp0]
Gold Gun YES.[/color:7hwnhtp0] Two runs ago 3rd off same mark. Patchy form on Soft, but did come 3rd in H’cap on Soft ground at Ascot Jan08 on 11 lbs higher mark.
Snake Charmer YES.[/color:7hwnhtp0] Has been coming placed on a similar mark. Course winner. Ground ok.
Leac An Scail[/color:7hwnhtp0]
Award Winner[/color:7hwnhtp0]
Kings Revenge[/color:7hwnhtp0]
Maktu[/color:7hwnhtp0]
Another Brother[/color:7hwnhtp0] Course winner. NO.[/color:7hwnhtp0] Likes to lead. Will he get away with it in a 15 runner h’cap? Also, not much of a price (11).
Others et al.[/color:7hwnhtp0]

1540 Uttoxeter 2m Novices’ H’cap H’dle Gd to Sft

Baltic Pathfinder [/color:7hwnhtp0] First run in a h’cap. One-paced, but you don’t need to sprint to win at Uttoxeter. I’m not supposed to be taking notice of jockeys, but the 7 lb Amateur has won 3 races. A benefit of the doubt YES.[/color:7hwnhtp0]
Snake Hips YES.[/color:7hwnhtp0] 3rd off same mark last time out.
Arctic Ben[/color:7hwnhtp0]
Diamond Frontier[/color:7hwnhtp0]
Kaloushki[/color:7hwnhtp0]

1645 Uttoxeter 2m5f H’cap Chase

Supreme Leisure [/color:7hwnhtp0] Jeez, this one was PU last twice as well! The last one was as recently as last Sunday. Before those, won C&D, 2lbs lower mark. I suppose I could trust the trainer/owner/jockey, but I can’t see how I can have a resonable expectation of him coming placed, when he was tailed off 6 days ago. NO.[/color:7hwnhtp0]
Nacimo[/color:7hwnhtp0] Ex-French. Was having his first run after a break when weakening on British debut. Dropped 8 lbs. I think this one has a reasonable chance of a place. YES[/color:7hwnhtp0].
Major Catch [/color:7hwnhtp0] Came a distant 4th after weakening in 1st time blinkers last time out. Won here in November off 3lbs lower mark, so I think that makes him a definite YES.[/color:7hwnhtp0]

1420 Wetherby 2m4f H’cap H’dle Good (Gd to Sft in places)

Currahee[/color:7hwnhtp0] (2 lbs oh) 8 lbs lower than when 11.5 length 5th 3 runs ago.. Blundered last time, on only run on GF. Fell when weakening over 20f. No evidence yet that he stays 2m4f. NO.[/color:7hwnhtp0] (If this was 2m, the decision would be YES.)
Greenbelt[/color:7hwnhtp0] Won on this course January off a 8 lb lower mark, but not evidence he stays 2m4f. NO[/color:7hwnhtp0]
Gold Thread[/color:7hwnhtp0] Not run for 759 days. Owner trainer. If he wanted to give him a prep run, surely he’d try a shorter distance? First time in a h’cap. trainer has another entry in the race – an out-of-form horse with the stable jockey up. A dubious YES.[/color:7hwnhtp0]
Mud Monkey YES. [/color:7hwnhtp0] 1/2 length 2nd off 3 lb lower mark last time out. Non-runner.[/color:7hwnhtp0]
Solent[/color:7hwnhtp0] Non-runner[/color:7hwnhtp0]
Doris’s Gift[/color:7hwnhtp0] Course winner. 4 lbs higher than when won here last May. Coming back in trip from 3m last 2 starts. Before that was 25 l 3rd off 4 lbs higher mark. YES.[/color:7hwnhtp0]
Terenzium[/color:7hwnhtp0] 5 lbs higher than CD win December. Hasn’t run since disappointing here, Boxing Day. Though only won once, has come in first 3 in 8 out of 13 runs at Wetherby. YES.[/color:7hwnhtp0]
Imtihan[/color:7hwnhtp0]
Rio de Janeiro[/color:7hwnhtp0]
Aldiruos[/color:7hwnhtp0] Course winner. Out of form this year. NO[/color:7hwnhtp0] 1st [/color:7hwnhtp0]
Pheidias[/color:7hwnhtp0]

SELECTIONS[/color:7hwnhtp0]
2.05 Uttoxeter -£6.00[/color:7hwnhtp0]
Silly Wupple
Its In The Stars
Andrew Nick
2nd, 3rd & 4th is bloody annoying. I should have been a bit quickwitted, and bought the winner in running, as soon as the fav PU.[/color:7hwnhtp0]

2.35 Uttoxeter +£62.70[/color:7hwnhtp0]
Gold Gun
Snake Charmer 1st
I was busy updating this, didn’t realise the time, and then PC froze when I went back to betfair. Thought I hadn’t backed this, and had missed a winner. Luckily, it was Gold Gun that I hadn’t put a bet on yet. £2 @ 34
[/color:7hwnhtp0]

3.40 Uttoxeter -£6.00[/color:7hwnhtp0]
Baltic Pathfinder
Snake Hips
I had a bet on Diamond Frontier as well.

4.45 Uttoxeter -£5.00[/color:7hwnhtp0]
Nacimo (£2) 2nd[/color:7hwnhtp0]
Major Catch (£3)
Maybe I should have put these two behind the McCoy hotpot, in forecasts, as savers/additional investments?
[/color:7hwnhtp0]
2.20 Wetherby -£7.00 [/color:7hwnhtp0](put 3 on Gold Thread)
Gold Thread
Mud Monkey Non-runner
Doris’s Gift
Terenzium

b/f -£0.40
Today +£38.70
c/f +£38.30[/color:7hwnhtp0]

[Gerald]

Sunday 15 March 2009[/color:2ivmrv7n]

1430 Carlisle 2m Novices’ H’cap Chase heavy

Moyne Pleasure[/color:2ivmrv7n] 11yo, chase record is PU, PU, PU, and beaten by 89 lengths. I’m going to take a chance, and say NO[/color:2ivmrv7n].
Astyanax[/color:2ivmrv7n] Last 3 runs were 3m+. Has only run on Soft twice. Has won H’cap H’dles off a 21 lbs higher rating. I am going to say YES[/color:2ivmrv7n], but I want a big price. (I am hoping the heavy ground won’t inconvenience him too much, and will bring his stamina into play.)
Bullie Acres[/color:2ivmrv7n] Only ran 3 days ago, when making most of the running over a longer trip. Came 3rd, C&D, same going, 3 runs ago. YES[/color:2ivmrv7n].
Duke Of Malfi[/color:2ivmrv7n]
Work Boy[/color:2ivmrv7n]

1535 Carlisle 3m2f Novices’ H’cap Chase Heavy

Ikemba[/color:2ivmrv7n] Has had 1 run in 2 years. I don’t like backing staying chasers on their season debut, so the answer is NO[/color:2ivmrv7n].
Baker Flinn [/color:2ivmrv7n] Ex-Irish. Missed last year. PU on British debut last time on Gd to Fm. Very well handicapped. I’ll take a chance that the last run has brought him on. YES[/color:2ivmrv7n]. (I suppose this is just an interest bet, or else I wouldn’t have a selection in the race.)

1610 Carlisle 2m5f Novices’ H’cap Chase Heavy

Storymaker [/color:2ivmrv7n] Course winner. H’cap Chase debut. Apart from one blunder, his jumping seems fine. Going no problem. YES[/color:2ivmrv7n].
Teenando [/color:2ivmrv7n] Won C&D February, off 6lb lower mark. Carlisle record 11315. YES[/color:2ivmrv7n].
Bougoure[/color:2ivmrv7n] Stable companion of Teenando, has the stable jockey/apprentice up. Dropped 8 lbs this season. Had a break, then two runs in February. A sort of anti-Sod’s law YES[/color:2ivmrv7n].
Mister Potter[/color:2ivmrv7n]
Banoge [/color:2ivmrv7n] Course winner last time out. I’ll back if I can get 10.

1640 Carlisle 3m H’cap Chase Heavy

Iloveturtle[/color:2ivmrv7n] No form in the past 2 years. NO[/color:2ivmrv7n].
Stark Raven[/color:2ivmrv7n] PU on seasonal debut. Came placed in April (here) and May last year off a 2 lb higher mark. The PU horses I backed in the 2.05 at Uttoxeter yesterday did well, so the answer is YES[/color:2ivmrv7n].
Has Scored[/color:2ivmrv7n] PU all 3 starts this season, but the last PU was different. Was 15 lbs oh, and was prominent, wearing first-time blinkers, PU 3 out. Won at Carlsle a year ago. Comes close to being my NAP of the Day. YES[/color:2ivmrv7n]. I’m disappointed that the price is so low.
Stormont Dawn[/color:2ivmrv7n] Course winner. Came 3rd off 3 lb higher mark 2 runs ago. YES[/color:2ivmrv7n]. (We’ll have to close our eyes about the 3m bit.)
Superrollercoaster[/color:2ivmrv7n]
Scotts Mill [/color:2ivmrv7n] Course winner. Never dangerous 3rd off 1 lb higher mark 3 runs ago. Last race comment at Carlisle: "in touch, on outside, ridden after 9th, rallied to chase leaders when blundered 4 out, soon outpaced". I like the rallied and blundered bits. YES[/color:2ivmrv7n].

SELECTIONS[/color:2ivmrv7n] (Betfair price obtained in violet)[/color:2ivmrv7n]
2.30 Carlisle -£8.00[/color:2ivmrv7n]
Astyanax (50)[/color:2ivmrv7n]
Bullies Acre (2@11sp & 2@21)[/color:2ivmrv7n]
Duke Of Malfi drifted to a bigger price than Bullies Acre, so I took £2@17. I was pissed off with the price of Bullies Acre, so I invested another £2 during running.

3.35 Carlisle -£2.00[/color:2ivmrv7n]
Baker Flinn (26)[/color:2ivmrv7n]

4.10 Carlisle +£62.70[/color:2ivmrv7n]
Storymaker (38sp)[/color:2ivmrv7n] 1st[/color:2ivmrv7n]
Teenando 8.6sp[/color:2ivmrv7n] 2nd[/color:2ivmrv7n]
Bougoure 17[/color:2ivmrv7n]
Banoge (10)[/color:2ivmrv7n]
Mister Potter drifted, and I put £2 on at 10

4.40 Carlisle +£17.10[/color:2ivmrv7n]
Stark Raven (50)[/color:2ivmrv7n] 2nd[/color:2ivmrv7n]
Has Scored £3@20[/color:2ivmrv7n] PU between first 2 fences
Stormont Dawn 12.5[/color:2ivmrv7n] 1st[/color:2ivmrv7n]
Scotts Mill Non-runner

b/f + £38.30
Today +£69.80
c/f +£108.10[/color:2ivmrv7n]

[Gerald]

Erm, should I stop this thread, or have I just been lucky two days in a row?

[robnorth]

I’d keep going, or if you stop the thread at least keep on betting.

I’ve found that betting in a not disimilar way, only on higher class races, that I’ll have a period of gentle up and down and then a couple of big hits boost the profits, but you have to keep turning over the money.

Keep your discipline and don’t get carried away.

Rob

[Gerald]

I’m worried the prices will disappear. There is also a logistical problem in that I start work again tomorrow. I’ll try it for tonight, and see how things go. I’ve just had an hour or two kip, so I ought to be able to study 6 races now.

[Gerald]

I ought to have gone to bed 2 hours ago. The only way I’ll be in a good mood at work tomorrow is if I drink a can of lager on the train.

Monday 16 March 2009[/color:3qsuobzv]

1410 Hereford 2m H’cap Chase Good, (Gd to Fm in places)
Pinkerton Mill [/color:3qsuobzv] Seasonal debut. Has only had 2 chase runs, both in h’caps. is on a very good h’cap mark, so I am going to risk a YES[/color:3qsuobzv], because this is only 2m.
Roseville[/color:3qsuobzv] Has had 3 disappointing runs this calendar year. I’m going to say a risky (?) NO[/color:3qsuobzv].
Devils River[/color:3qsuobzv] Flat bred, so I am hoping the ground will inconvenience this one less than the others. Ran well when Pulled Up. Good h’cap mark. Definite YES[/color:3qsuobzv], even though unplaced in 8 chase starts.
Zorro De La Vega[/color:3qsuobzv] Ground no problem. Has been dropped 9 lbs after two runs on heavy that can be ignored. Will be right there in the mix. YES[/color:3qsuobzv].
Wishes Or Watches[/color:3qsuobzv] Fell 2 out when in the lead in a PTP Gd to Fm, and won PTP Firm. Is h’capped to win. YES[/color:3qsuobzv].
Fortune Point[/color:3qsuobzv]
Guns Of Love[/color:3qsuobzv]
Jimmy Bedney[/color:3qsuobzv]
Phoenix Eye[/color:3qsuobzv] Course winner.

1510 Hereford 3m2f H’cap H’dle
Patrixbourne[/color:3qsuobzv] Near Canterbury, if you’re interested. First time blinkers. H’cap debut. Not sure how blinkers can help over 3m2f. On the other hand, trip should be okay on breeding. 3 figures required. YES[/color:3qsuobzv].
Mega Steps[/color:3qsuobzv] Not in form this season. NO[/color:3qsuobzv].
Hawks Landing [/color:3qsuobzv] Effectively seasonal debut. Won after a break Oct 06, but was then trained by the great Jonjo O’Neill. Lots of horses here, so I’m saying NO[/color:3qsuobzv].
Brave Jewel NO[/color:3qsuobzv]
Simple Glory[/color:3qsuobzv] has been chasing. off same mark as 21 length 3rd Nov 08, so technically this is YES[/color:3qsuobzv].
Synonymy [/color:3qsuobzv] H’cap debut. Badly h’capped? NO[/color:3qsuobzv].
Roseneath[/color:3qsuobzv]
Agoodun[/color:3qsuobzv]
Saint Par[/color:3qsuobzv]
What Luck[/color:3qsuobzv]
Ashwell Lad[/color:3qsuobzv] 3rd 14/1
Heir To Be[/color:3qsuobzv] 1st 12/1
Another Present[/color:3qsuobzv]
Dew Drop Inn[/color:3qsuobzv]
Enchanted Approach[/color:3qsuobzv] Accidentally looked at this one out of order. H’cap debut. Has won a bumper. Slowly, slowly, catchee monkey. YES[/color:3qsuobzv].

1540 Hereford 3m7f H’cap Chase
Master John[/color:3qsuobzv] First attempt at this sort of distance. looking at the breeding, I’ll venture a NO[/color:3qsuobzv].
Gallik Dawn[/color:3qsuobzv] Disqualified 2nd off 4 lb higher mark 3m4f Stratford, 23 May 08. YES YES YES[/color:3qsuobzv]
Chabrimal Minster [/color:3qsuobzv] Doesn’t seem h’capped to win, but won 3m6f Cartmel May08. Place chances are reasonable. YES[/color:3qsuobzv].
Fine By Me[/color:3qsuobzv] 2nd 5/1***
L’Aventure[/color:3qsuobzv]
Super Judge[/color:3qsuobzv] Course winner. Coming into form. Promoted 2nd in Gallik Dawn’s disqualification race. YES[/color:3qsuobzv], if can get 10.

This is possibly the first time I’ve ever had a bet at Taunton. I had to look up what the track was like. A bit like Musselburgh, except smaller, and the Gd to Sft will be more like Sandown Gd to Sft than Musselburgh Gd to Sft.

1550 Taunton 2m1f H’cap H’dle Gd to Sft (Soft in places)
Arthur’s Dream[/color:3qsuobzv] H’capped badly? CD winner (Seller). Absent since November. Both of its wins were in Sellers, and were preceded by runs on the AW. NO[/color:3qsuobzv].
Amour Multiple [/color:3qsuobzv] Led on seasonal debut to 3 out, until finished tailed off. Is 4lbs lower than when won Wincanton Jan 07. YES[/color:3qsuobzv].
Master Mahogany[/color:3qsuobzv] Ran well when came last on Polytrack at Lingfield (led, and then beaten 3.75 lengths). Win on 20 Mar08 was preceded by coming 7/7. On that basis, YES[/color:3qsuobzv].
Ameeq[/color:3qsuobzv] In form on the Flat (judging by lengths beaten, rather than finishing position). Two runs before that were novice chases. Doesn’t seem particularly well h’capped, but was 3 lengths 5th in 2007 Swinton off 4 lbs higher mark. YES[/color:3qsuobzv].
Overstrand[/color:3qsuobzv]
Royal Rationale[/color:3qsuobzv] 2nd 9/1
Quasar Doudairies[/color:3qsuobzv] 1st 7/2
L’Eau Du Nil[/color:3qsuobzv] (YES)[/color:3qsuobzv] Nothing to do with the book – I’m trying to have a bet on it because it has won in the last 7 days.

I’ll type up the other 2 Taunton h’caps when I arrive home from work.

1620 Taunton 3m H’cap H’dle
Joli Classical [/color:3qsuobzv]Has had two disappointing runs this season. I suppose I can regard them as warm-ups? Has been dropped 7 lbs this season, and is now only 3 lbs higher than when won Plumpton March08. YES[/color:3qsuobzv], if I can get a good price (50+).
Calusa Charlie[/color:3qsuobzv] Took keen hold on first run for over 2 years. But that was because he is normally prominent, and was held up by the jockey. 11 lbs lower than when 11 lengths 3rd to Star de Mohaison in Listed H’cap H’dle, Cheltenham, Nov 06. NAP of the Day. YES[/color:3qsuobzv].
Lord Shark[/color:3qsuobzv] Gee, the Official H’capper has a difficult job. ?[/color:3qsuobzv] 3rd 8/1
Micmacmagoole[/color:3qsuobzv] Course winner Automatically put up £2 @ 12, and haven’t written anything down. YES[/color:3qsuobzv].
Strong Rebel[/color:3qsuobzv]
Estate[/color:3qsuobzv] 4th
Long Hop[/color:3qsuobzv] 1st 7/2

1650 Taunton 2m7f H’cap Chase
Ede’Iff [/color:3qsuobzv] Coming down the weights due to age, but was 4th on Boxing Day. A dodgy YES [/color:3qsuobzv]at a good price, but I’ll try to bet more than 2 in this race.
Akatras [/color:3qsuobzv] 6lbs higher than when won on Boxing Day. 4 lbs lower than when won 24f Taunton Dec 07. YES[/color:3qsuobzv].
Wild Ground[/color:3qsuobzv] Two runs ago was 2nd here off 2 lb lower mark. YES[/color:3qsuobzv].
I Hear Thunder[/color:3qsuobzv] 2nd 7/1
Royal Hector[/color:3qsuobzv]
Heart Springs[/color:3qsuobzv]
Manly Money[/color:3qsuobzv] Course winner. Out since Nov 07. As this is a staying chase, because of the absence I’ll only bet if I can get a good price. YES[/color:3qsuobzv].

SELECTIONS[/color:3qsuobzv]

2.10 Hereford +£15.20
Pinkerton 55
Zorro De La Vega 13 1st
Wishes Or Watches 12.5
Phoenix Eye 10

3.10 Hereford -£6.00
Patrixbourne 140 2nd BUGGER, & DOUBLE BUGGER
Simple Glory 40.12
Enchanted Approach 17
I arrived home just in time to hear the last couple of furlongs on Timeform Radio. Apparently Patrixbourne led them a merry dance, and when she was headed she came back for more after the last. I think I need to start doing betfair sp place bets on my selections that are 40 or 50+.

3.40 Hereford -£6.00
Gallik Dawn 20
Chabrimal Minster 16
Super Judge 50 put this on in running

3.50 Taunton -£6.00
Amour Multiple 75
Master Mahogany 50
Ameeq 20
L’Eau De Nil couldn’t get price

4.20 Taunton – £8.00
Joli Classical 44 in running
Calusa Charlie £4@21
Micmacmagoole 12

4.50 Taunton -£4.00
Ede’Iff 50 3rd
Alcatras 16
Wild Ground couldn’t get price
Royal Hector couldn’t get price
Manly Money couldn’t get price

b/f +£108.10
Today -£14.80
c/f +£93.30
[/color:3qsuobzv]

[robnorth]

I’ve gone along with you on Amour Multiple. Very interesting on some of his form and worth noting his two UK wins have been at Wincanton and Hereford, right-hand tracks not dissimilar to Taunton. In fact his record going right-handed is far in advance of that going left-handed and his last three runs have been ‘wrong way’. Went well until hitting three out last time and might be expected to come on for the run.

Rob

[Gerald]

I don’t like all these people who read posts, and don’t leave advice. I’m resorting to minimal listing.

Tuesday 17 March 2009[/color:1g6a0g5y]

1440 Exeter 2m1f H’cap H’dle Good (Gd to Fm in places) -£6.00
Bollitree Bob YES
Freddys Star YES
Captain Beckett YES
Beat The System
Maximix
Loud Present
Masjoor
The Composer

1550 Exeter 3m Novices’ H’cap Chase -£10.00
Indian Chase NO
Atherstone Hill NO [edit: typo, should be YES. I did it for a place]
Bertie May NO
Maree Hall YES?
Killing Me Softly NO
Justabout NO
Lancaster Sound YES
Weather Permitting
Laudamus YES Non-runner
Baron De Doc
Bold Punt
Royal Hilarity

1700 Exeter 2m7f Novices’ H’cap H’dle +£30.96
Indian Doctor NO
Themanfrommayo NO
Wide Receiver NO
Tandori YES Brought Down
Osbourne ?
Might As Well YES 1st
Notanotherdonkey NO?
Nearly A Breeze YES Fell
Skip The Present
Haldibari
Mad Jack Duncan
Delayed Approach
Thethirdoftheforth
Tarateeno
Sawpit Solitaire

b/f +£93.30
Today +£14.96
c/f +108.26[/color:1g6a0g5y]

[robnorth]

Gerald

Hard luck with Patrixbourne. It’s landing a couple of those sort of bets which make your season. One consolation is that it suggests your judgement is on the mark.

Amour Multiple looks as if his poor form might be due to a problem. He was in contention down the back straight but fell away in a matter of strides in a manner suggesting breathing problems.

12:55 Tuesday

My method normally meets yours in the 0-130 handicap hurdles. Today’s race is the 3.40 at kempton where my selcetions are:

Zonergem @ 55 – enigmatic but well capable of picking up this sort of race if he deigns to put best hoof forward[/color:15w0f87s]
Mud Monkey @ 36 – Handles today’s conditions well enough and ran promisingly last time at Exeter. Trained by King or Henderson instead of Miss C Dyson this one would likely be in single figures.[/color:15w0f87s]
Shannon Springs requested 23 – not yet matched – current price 16 – showed up well enough for a way on last two starts and suited by today’s conditions.[/color:15w0f87s]

Rob

[Gerald]

Hi Rob

I rowed in with Mud Monkey, because I had selected it at the weekend when it was a non-runner.
When I worked in a bookies, we wrote the results of the races, together with the non-runners, on a whiteboard. I was amazed as the number of non-runners who’d appear a couple of days later and win. I don’t know whether that still happens with such apparent frequency.

As far as this topic is concerned, I still haven’t read the book properly, but I seem to be stumbling along okay.
One thing I am very disciplined about is that I don’t look at the odds of the market leaders first to see whether there is a hotpot, or whether it is a wide open race.
It won’t be for a couple of months that I can study my bets and see how they do at varying price ranges, and how the course winners do etc.
It was rather embarrassing yesterday to have a 12/1 winner, and make a loss on the day. I’ll try to keep it down to 2, 3 or occasionally 4 selections a race. I know you’ll say that if a particular horse is value, then back it, but I want to manage my finances, so that if I do dip down to -£200 whilst I am learning it will take a few weeks rather than a few days.
I suppose the ultimate test is whether I say NO to a horse that ends up winning at a big price. I think I am doing okay with that at the moment.
I have become a bit blase about the prices – winners at 38, 34 and c20 (R4), seconds at 140 and 50 and a third at 50. I think that is a good thing though. The only problem is that similar to the past when I wasn’t too keen to take single figure odds, I am now disappointed with the prices in the teens.

In his book Newton provides a list of preferred courses to back at, with the remainder of the course on the non-preferred list. I am not too sure about this, because the impression I get is that this is based on one season’s data.
Similarly, he writes down the NUMBER of outsider victories by Class, but doesn’t express them as percentages of races in those classes. I am sure that class 1 and class 2 h’caps are worth using the technique on – indeed he includes examples of them in his book
Anyway, I can’t wait for the next Selling H’cap H’dle – I think I might be able to become an expert at them.

Gerald

[robnorth]

Mud Monkey went off too quick and just couldn’t answer when challenged on the home bend. I would give due credit for the performance though and, in the ruight class or with a little more restraint I think there is a win in this one this spring, possibly at fancy odds.

With Zonergem you normally know fairly soon whether it’s a going day, and sadly it was soon clear it wasn’t.

I’ve had my most successful betting period opposing the favourites with a selection of well chosen outsiders. I’ve had two three figure winners this season which has virtually guaranteed the seasonal profit. The advantage these days is that you can pick off decent odds on the exchanges from people thinking they are making easy money.

Rob

[Gerald]

Wednesday 18th March 2009[/color:30ziujm1]

I’ve looked at the h’caps at Chepstow, and there were a few horses I found it difficult to make my mind up about – maybe I am suffering more from my decision not to provide published written reasons than you are. What I have done is offer some prices, and if they are accepted fine, if not, so be it. Consequently I am keeping today’s selections and results off menu.

Because the markets weren’t properly formed on betfair, I took my list order of horses from the Racing Post, and noticed a couple of things. The favourite for the 4.25 ran yesterday, so if he is withdrawn that will result in R4 being applied.

[Gerald]

Hi, I thought I had better keep people informed as to what is happening with this thread.

Basically, it is at an end.

I will still be carrying on betting this way – indeed, today I extended it to the AW with success, and I also had the winners of two bumpers.

This method of betting suits my style for a variety of reasons:-
first of all, the outsiders
second, I can concentrate on h’caps
third, I only have to look at about half-a-dozen horses per race, rather than the whole field.
fourth, I am only to rely on reading the form, and don’t have to take notice of trainers or jockeys or watch replays of races on video.

I found it easy to post last week and at the weekend, because I was on holiday and still getting up at about my normal time.
However, I have a lack of time and am usually tired now that I am back at work.

What my modus operandus will be now will be to study the previous evening the form of the races up to 3.45 or so, and then when I arrive home from work in the afternoon start studying the.races due off 4.00 and after.

I had a bad day yesterday, missing out on two "winners". When the horse pulled himself up with about 50 yds to go at Chepstow, it cost me about £80. I also didn’t put any money on another horse that I had written YES against, because the price was lower than I was expecting. I was a bit pissed off and tired, so I didn’t study any of today’s races. I was feeling better when I got home this afternoon, and got stuck into it. Yesterday’s losses are recovered, and I’ve had a few bets at Kempton this evening.

I think for the Flat season I will continue to do this. What remains up in the air is whether I get around to doing anything with 2yos or Maidens. If I did get involved with these, I reckon I’d only have a bet wevery six races or so.

I probably won’t be posting very often in the future.

I’ll regard the ante-post bets I’ve already got as events in the past – if they lose, I’ll just shrug my shoulders, if they win I have a bit extra money coming in.

[Gerald]

Experimental posting.

I’m just checking that if I embed some formatting in a spreadsheet, it will come through when I copy it here.

This bit should be in red [/color:2rtnzh16]
This bit should be in

bold

Edit:

Dark Red[/color:2rtnzh16]

Orange [/color:2rtnzh16]
Brown[/color:2rtnzh16]

Green [/color:2rtnzh16]
Olive[/color:2rtnzh16]

Blue[/color:2rtnzh16]
Dark Blue[/color:2rtnzh16]

Indigo [/color:2rtnzh16]
Violet[/color:2rtnzh16]

[Author]

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