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opinions wanted

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  • #1051
    evergreenfc
    Member
    • Total Posts 13

    I am formulating a method initially for the flat.<br>One of the main requirements is an accurate class rating for each class of race when rating the results.

    In handicaps this is quite straight forward as the official mark of the topweighted horse is as accurate as you can get.

    However, what sort of class rating can I give to the following races so that they "knit" in to the handicaps?

    Sellers<br>Claimers (for each class)<br>Maidens (each class)<br>Listed (A,B,C )<br>Gruop 1<br>Group 2<br>Group 3

    I would appreciate your ideas

    Davey H

    #44188
    dave jay
    Member
    • Total Posts 3386

    Hi evergreenfc,

    That’s a very good question and one that I have pondered myself. I do my own ratings from time to time, particularly in higher class races. I find it useful not to look at the type of race but the race value to determine what the horse did and the company it was doing it in. This gives you a rating of a sort but delving too deeply can give a misleading picture.

    For example; a horse finishing 12L 3rd of 8 in a Group One race may very well have a similar finishing position in a Class B HCP, although it appears to be dropping in class, it’s class in fact may not have been established, only the opinion of the Trainer or Owners.

    I hope this helps.

    #44191
    robert99robert99
    Participant
    • Total Posts 897

    Davey H,

    Dave Jay is right about the prizemoney. I would also add that for all races you need to add in the speedrating of the winner, the Raceform Update performance rating of the winner (both to a common 10 stone), the going correction and the number of horses in the race. Trying to use just one number to represent the class of a race is very unreliable.

    Regards,<br>Robert<br>:cool:

    #44192
    boylee
    Member
    • Total Posts 25

    Hi Evergreen,  I use the Class of the race (ie a,b,c ect) and the course group. The basic rating is taken from the speed fig. in the Raceform Update and add values of the other 2. If you start with H on zero then go 7 for G, 14 for F and add 7pts per class then the course it ran on ie group 1, group 2, group 3, and group 4. I use 4pts differance for each group. The figs are up to you but I ham just giving you an example. I hope this is clear to you but I am useless on a computer, I also have a way of changeing the race value (money) to a rating but it is beyond me to put it on the board, I have tried before but always failed. If one of the moniters of the forum a address to send it to I will do so.   Barry

    #44195
    MatronMatron
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5825

    Hi Barry,

    If you contact Daylight through the "internal messenger" service I am sure he will be able to assist you.

    Regards – Matron<br>:cool:

    #44196
    boylee
    Member
    • Total Posts 25

    Hi Matron, how do I do that? explain like you would to a 10yr old, I am that bad with this machine.<br>                                                                   Barry<br>                                            

    #44197
    MatronMatron
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5825

    Barry, if you just "click on" to "Messenger" and this will take you through to the "internal mail" system.

    Just "log in" and and go to "New PM" "address your message to "Daylight" and submit it.

    Regards – Matron<br>:cool:

    #44199
    boylee
    Member
    • Total Posts 25

    Hi Matron, I have just sent a message to daylight but it would not send, it said internal error.<br>                                                             Barry

    #44200
    MatronMatron
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5825

    Barry,

    I will send an internal e-mail to Daylight and see if he can assist with you not being able to send a message.

    Regards – Matron<br>:cool:

    #44201
    boylee
    Member
    • Total Posts 25

    Hi Matron,  Thank you  Barry

    #44202
    boylee
    Member
    • Total Posts 25

    Basic rating,  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚£2,500 = 66pts<br>                       2,600 = 67<br>                       2,700 = 68<br>                       2,800 = 69<br>                       3,000 = 70<br>                       3,000 = 71<br>                       4,000 = 72<br>                       4,000 = 73<br>                       4,500 = 74<br>                       5,000 = 75<br>                       5,500 = 76<br>                       6,000 = 77<br>                       6,500 = 78<br>                       7,000 = 79<br>                       7,500 = 80<br>                       8,000 = 81<br>                       8,500 = 82<br>                       9,000 = 83<br>                       9,500 = 84<br>                      10,000= 85<br>                      11,000= 86<br>                      12,000= 87<br>                      13,000= 88<br>                      15,000= 89<br>                      17,500= 90<br>                      20,000= 91<br>                      20,500= 92<br>                      25,000= 93<br>                      32,500= 95<br>                      50,000= 97<br>                      75,000= 99<br>                     100,000= 100

    I hope this has printed out ok if it does I will put up the add on’s some for the flat and some for the n/h

                                                   Barry<br>                      

    #44203
    dave jay
    Member
    • Total Posts 3386

    Hi boylee .. that’s a long list, what does it mean ??

    #44204
    boylee
    Member
    • Total Posts 25

    Hi, sorry I have not put up the rest of the system yet but here is the rest.

    flat part<br>wt. carried on previous outings<br>above 9st add 1pt per pound<br>below 9st deduct 1pt per pound<br>amateur races work from 11st<br>ladies races work from 9st 7lb

    type of race                     ratings + or -<br>handicap                          + 10pts<br>apprentice h’cap              +  7pts<br>non h’cap                         +    3pts<br>non h’cap apprentise       +  2pts <br>maiden                             =<br>auction or claiming           =<br>handicap seller                 –  4pts<br>non h’cap seller                –  14pts

    number of runners in previous race<br>7 runners deduct 2pts<br>6 runners deduct 3pts<br>5 runners deduct 5pts<br>4 runners deduct 8pts<br>3 runners deduct 11pts do not rate any under 3 runners

    5-7fur  1 length = 3pts, 3/4 & 1/2 lengths = 2pts, nk,hd,sh =1pts<br>8-13fur  1 length = 2pts, 3/4 & 1/2 lengths = 1pt<br>14+fur   1length  = 1pt

    maximum winning distance table<br>5-7fur max = 3 lengths<br>8-10fur max = 5 lengths<br>11-14fur max = 7 lenths<br>15+fur max = 9 lenths

    days since ran<br>30-59 days deduct 3pts<br>60-89 days deduct 6pts<br>90+ days    deduct 13pts

    weight to be carried today<br>above 9st deduct 1pt per lb<br>below 9st deduct 1pt per lb<br>amateur races work from 11st<br>ladies races work from 9st 7lb

    using form from abroad<br>irish racing deduct 5pts<br>french racing deduct 3pts<br>italian racing deduct 10pts<br>any other country minus 14 pts

    The idea is to start the rating from the second horse and rate from there.

    I got this all including the monatry value on a A4 paper that is why I had trouble putting it on a site before it all srambled together.

    dave jay  the first post was the start of the system using the race value in pts to form a rating, this was a computer system that somebody had changed to manual. now it is the other way round

    I have never used it properly I only use the first part  with the class of the race and racecourse class to compare todays race with a  previous race. <br>                                                    Barry      

    #44205
    peter
    Member
    • Total Posts 57

    YOUR FORMULA SEEMS TOO COMPLEX BY FAR. SIMPLICITY IS THE KEY. GOOD RACEFORM, FITNESS AND SPEED – ALLIED TO HIGH WEIGHT AND STRONG MARKET POSITIONS ARE INHERENT FACTORS THAT SHOULD HELP YOU STRIVE FOR EXCELLENCE AND GIVE YOU SOME FRIUTFUL GAINS…BEST OF LUCK IN ALL YOU PURSUE AND HOPE YOU PROSPER WITH YOUR TIME HONOURED APPROACH

    #44206
    boylee
    Member
    • Total Posts 25

    Hi Peter,  you are right, as I have said someware on the site I only use the first part. VDW always put great stock in Class and the first 3 con. this is my way, use the class of the last 3 races against the class of todays to find if any of the horses could win the race. I suppose it sounds like double dutch but blame that on the idiot (me) trying to use the computer, but it works for me.<br>                                    Barry

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