One Ride For The Day

[Chivers1987]

Good evening. I’m looking at producing a system of sorts that records the results of jockeys that have gone to a meeting just for the one ride. This won’t be all jockeys mind, it will be who I think are household names/who have made the trip knowing they have a great chance of a winner.
I won’t be looking at the form of the race as a whole in any depth but I will take a glance at the selections provided. It will be small stakes stuff as well. I won’t be adding any of my proper bets on to this thread.

I picked 3 today, 1 of which was a silly decision and one that was slightly dodgy given he is retained so has to travel really.

These were:

Plumpton
310 – Saint Contest (Alan King/Wayne Hutchinson) 4/1 fell SP 11/4 £10 e/w
340 – Miss Mayfair (Lawney Hill/Aidan Coleman) 9/2 won at 11/2 £12.50 e/w
Wolverhampton
400 – One Big Surprise (Richard Hughes/Shane Kelly) 12/1 plum last at 22/1 £10 e/w

Profit of £45 owing to the fact £30 of £70 spent was in free bets.

Anyway, that profit can go straight on to 2 I have picked out for tomorrow. Just a note: I won’t be adding anything that is odds on overnight either.

Southwell
130- Towering (Conor Dore/Paddy Brennan) 15/2 £10 e/w
Fakenham
250 – Broadway Belle (Chris Grant/Brian Hughes) 18/5 £10 e/w

£2.50 e/w free bet @ 11/2 @ 7/2

[Matron]

Good luck with your selections today Chivers.

[billion]

Civers1987

I shall watch with the greatest of interest because so much of how you explain it is being similar to my own lines of thought.

You are giving rise to who makes the better decisions either the rider or the trainer, I am of the opinion it must be the trainer who selects the venue, distance etc. but you are showing the rider then chooses if it is worthwhile. If the rider is a retained one the question must be if he has any say in the matter and is simply told he must do it.

Fingers crossed.

Billy's Outback Shack

[homersimpson]

I would say two well worth to be in the system given the jockey bookings by two smaller yards. Some support for both this morning.

GL with the system Chivers

[Venture to Cognac]

Hope this goes well Chivers.

[Chivers1987]

Thank you for the positive feedback everyone. Here are the results of today’s selections.

Southwell
130- Towering (Conor Dore/Paddy Brennan) 15/2 £10 e/w Placed 4th SP 17/2 £27 Return
Fakenham
250 – Broadway Belle (Chris Grant/Brian Hughes) 18/5 £10 e/w Placed 2nd SP 2/1 £19 Return

£2.50 e/w free bet @ 11/2 @ 7/2 £10 Return

£16 profit for the day making £61 overall.

Towering came into 4/1 throughout the morning which I couldn’t quite fathom as there wasn’t enough rain to hit the course. Went out to 9/1 before the off and ran with credit. Luckily there wasn’t a non runner in sight and 4 places stood with the firms offering.
Broadway Belle was steamed into 15/8 a few minutes before the off but the late support for the fav was justified. Ran a good race though.

There was a couple I contemplated backing with the system used who were winners:

Fakenham 320 – Leighton Aspell
Southwell 230 – David Noonan

In form conditional jockey Callum Bewley also had a winner but I didn’t spot this last night.
I’ll have a look later at what tomorrow might bring.

[homersimpson]

Chivers1987 wrote:

In form conditional jockey Callum Bewley also had a winner but I didn’t spot this last night.
I’ll have a look later at what tomorrow might bring.

Yes for Chris Grant also. Bloody typical.

[Chivers1987]

D’OH didn’t notice that either till you mentioned it.

4 interesting selections for tomorrow for different reasons.

Hexham
130 – The Dubai Way 2/1 £20 win(Harry Whittington/Harry Bannister) 550+ mile round trip from Oxfordshire to Hexham

Warwick
105 – Indian Native 10/3 £10 e/w (Alex Hales/Kielan Woods) Jockey 4-13 last 14 days
350 – Buildmeupbuttercup 15/2 £10 e/w (Mick Channon/Graham Lee) Ex jump jockey now flat has one ride in a bumper

Kempton
610 – Victory Chime 8/1 £10 e/w (Ralph Beckett/Richard Kingscote) Jockey 6-21 last 14 days. Horse entered in Derby so connections think he’s got something about him. Obviously not a real Derby hope though on form.

£2.50 e/w 4 Fold

Could well be in negative figures tomorrow

[Chivers1987]

Hexham
130 – The Dubai Way 2/1 £20 win(Harry Whittington/Harry Bannister) 1st 11/8 – £60

Warwick
105 – Indian Native 10/3 £10 e/w (Alex Hales/Kielan Woods) Unplaced 4th
350 – Buildmeupbuttercup 15/2 £10 e/w (Mick Channon/Graham Lee) 1st 4/1 – £110

Kempton
610 – Victory Chime 8/1 £10 e/w (Ralph Beckett/Richard Kingscote) Unplaced 9th

£2.50 e/w 4 Fold XX

£85 profit = £146 overall

Little bit harder tomorrow but I’ll have a punt on 3 anyway.

Market Rasen
320 – Benny’s Bridge 5/1 £10 e/w (Fergal O’Brien/Paddy Brennan) 300+ mile round trip for team thriving with bumper horses

Wincanton
1220 – Prince Mahler 10/1 £5 e/w (Richard Woollacott/Daryl Jacob) only ride of the day for Mr. Jacob

1250 – Fou Et Sage 9/2 £10 e/w (Harry Whittington/Harry Bannister) Drops from listed last twice to class 3.

£2.50 e/w treble

[homersimpson]

Excellent stuff again today Chivers. Guess we will have to wait and see if this system is profitable as I’m thinking this is just an exceptional week and you are lucky to start off this way. Hope you have the time to keep this going to prove me wrong

[Chivers1987]

Thanks Homer, there have been elements of good fortune eg Fou Et Sage wouldn’t have placed today if it were not for The Hobbs/Johnson falling at the last.
There are a few I have been quietly confident about and the market has been speaking in favour of most of them on the day of the race.
Put it this way, If I backed every jockey going to a meeting for one ride then I wouldn’t be in profit. I’m not expecting many weeks like this though and I’ll be sticking to a maximum £20 stake and see where it goes.
It has been a lot of fun.

[billion]

Just checked in to find you are doing okay Chiver1987, well done so far.

Billy's Outback Shack

[Chivers1987]

Thanks Billion

Market Rasen
320 – Benny’s Bridge 5/1 £10 e/w (Fergal O’Brien/Paddy Brennan) 1st 4/1 – £80
Wincanton
1220 – Prince Mahler 10/1 £5 e/w (Richard Woollacott/Daryl Jacob) Placed 2nd 11/1 – £16

1250 – Fou Et Sage 9/2 £10 e/w (Harry Whittington/Harry Bannister) Placed 3rd 3/1 – £19

£2.50 e/w treble – £28.80

£88.80 profit = £234.80 overall

Just one tentative selection tomorrow.

Ffos Las
215 – Star Tackle 5/2 £20 win (Harry Whittington/Harry Bannister) 300+ mile round trip, horse fell last time when travelling well.

[Chivers1987]

Ffos Las
215 – Star Tackle 5/2 £20 win (Harry Whittington/Harry Bannister) 2nd 11/4 – £0

Good effort but just done near the line.

£20 loss = £214.80 Profit

With the tasty profit made this week I’m giving myself licence to mix it up a little and look out for certain trainers sending one horse to a meeting.
Here are four for tomorrow.

Wolverhampton
545 – Guvenor’s Choice 11/4 £20 (Karl Burke/Clifford Lee) Long trip for the one runner

615 – Profound 6/1 £10 e/w (Roger Varian/Jack Mitchell) Same again, long trip, one runner

715 – La Cabana 14/1 £5 e/w (Richard Fahey/Barry Mchugh) See above

915 – Lanjano 10/1 £10 e/w (Kevin Ryan/Kevin Stott) Sorry to be repetitive but same again as above

[Chivers1987]

Wolverhampton
545 – Guvenor’s Choice 11/4 £20 (Karl Burke/Clifford Lee) 5/11 – £0

615 – Profound 6/1 £10 e/w (Roger Varian/Jack Mitchell) 2/13 7/2 – £22

715 – La Cabana 14/1 £5 e/w (Richard Fahey/Barry Mchugh) 6/7 14/1 – £0

915 – Lanjano 10/1 £10 e/w (Kevin Ryan/Kevin Stott) 5/11 4/1 – £0

£48 Loss = £166.80

Ultimately a disappointing day but a learning curve for the system as the form was very suspect for the last two races even with the backing of Lanjano overnight. I liked the form of Profound and he was just touched off. No 4 fold, which tells the story really so I’ll move on and give the selections a bit more thought.

Exeter
255 – Turban 9/1 £10 e/w (Paul Henderson/Paddy Brennan) conditions might help with sharper trip and encouraging latest run.

[billion]

G’day Chivers1987

I read with some interest you have noted “certain” trainers with just the one entry at a given meeting and further noticed you reference this as a learning curve.

If you do learn (as such) please keep me informed because I am struggling to unlock the very same mystery.

Either the rider with only a single engagement or the trainer with only one entry must indicate something to us poor punters but which if either holds a clue to who is the better.

Billy's Outback Shack

[Chivers1987]

I’d say it comes in most part from form and common sense. The winners I’ve had from this system have been from well placed horses in very winnable races. A couple of the losses were from win bets where the selection ran a very good race. Then yesterday there were two in particular (Lanjano & La Cabana) that really had nothing to inspire much confidence of a winning chance and I am happy to learn and treat this system with more of a thought process.

Today’s selection is an interesting one but I can’t be sure of what to expect. He hasn’t run over as sharp a trip as this for well over two years but gave a decent account of himself running from the front last time and was kept in good company last season.

Basically, I feel this horse in this race is worth the punt and if it loses then it isn’t going to leave me cursing the decision, whereas some of the selections I have made have left me wondering why I thought it was worth the risk of a bet.

[Author]

Posts